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Wednesday, 12 September 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 A recovery in the shipping market since last year has buoyed optimism amongst the people in the industry. Yet if you are to ask most ship-owners if they are happy with the market, you will get a reply “mmmh... not really...”. The market hike seems to have hit a ceiling the past months and whilst the ship earnings have doubled or tripled compared to two years ago, they still seem to be just a touch (?) away from their break-even. Also, opposite to the common belief, during the past few months instead of further improvement we have seen a lot of volatility and a resistance to get to higher levels.
On the ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by 181 vessels since last year corresponding to a marginal growth of just below 2%. This moderate fleet increase versus four percent global growth has no doubt been a major driver of the recovery. Looking forward, there has been some order replenishment and in fact the orderbook is today bigger than what it was a year ago; about half of the new orders are Kamsarmaxes, generating some concerns on over ordering and affecting an already fragile market. On the other hand we can easily argue that the environmental regulations that are coming into force over the next couple of years, will call on owners to make substantial investments in their assets and we don't expect them to upgrade their older vessels. Current orderbook – not including slippage/cancellations – stands at 8.5% of the world fleet and with 9% of the fleet being over 20 years old you have a good release valve to balance the new deliveries.
On the other side of the equation there still is a growing demand for seaborne transportation. The population continues to expand, emerging countries continue to absorb shipping goods and raw materials, so - still being the most fuel efficient and environment friendly form of commercial transport – seaborne trade will continue to grow; this is a fact. On the other hand, shipping is inherently correlated to the world economy, so the trade contraction from trade wars, may translate into reduction in demand for shipping, and although China is no longer growing at eight or ten percent annually, it's still leading the demand for tonne miles. To put it simply, the demand is under short term shakedown from president Trump. Up until today, the markets have been on wait-and-see mode whether the threats are valid and how far the confrontation will go. The US president's tariffs have been met with Chinese retaliation and Beijing administration confident that they can cope with full scale trade war.
So, although we don't see a ceiling, since there seem to be strong fundamentals for the market to improve further, we are now on a kind of a plateau whereby there are economic as well as political reasons that are preventing markets to improve further. For shipping we believe that this will work in its favour in the longer term as, although it's a good entry point for investments and the upside is there, it makes the ship-owners more careful, patient and they avoid overreactions. This situation should also remind everybody that shipping is an infinite game and the objective of the players – both know and unknown - is to perpetuate the game.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 05 April 18
INDONESIA TO POSTPONE NEW COAL, PALM OIL SHIPPING RULES TO 2020 - REUTERS
Indonesia will delay until 2020 trade rules requiring exporters of coal and crude palm oil to use only Indonesian-flagged vessels, government offic ...
Tuesday, 03 April 18
MARKET ANALYSIS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
In the midst of a relatively quiet week for markets, with disruptions being caused by the Christian holidays, it seems as though we find ourselves ...
Monday, 02 April 18
THE FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE FLAT TO SOFT, SAYS VISTAAR
The freight market softening to continue. Thursday, March 29, 2018, the Baltic Dry Index decreased by 42 points, reaching 1080 points.
T ...
Monday, 02 April 18
THIESS TO DELIVER $150M SENAKIN CONTRACT EXTENSION
Thiess has secured a $150 million contract extension to provide mine services at Arutmin’s Senakin coal mine in South Kalimantan, Indonesia.
...
Monday, 02 April 18
THIESS SECURES $240M SATUI EXTENSION
The successful implementation of an innovative mining plan by Thiess at the Satui coal mine in South Kalimantan, has resulted in a $240 million con ...
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- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Coal Association
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
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