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Wednesday, 12 September 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 A recovery in the shipping market since last year has buoyed optimism amongst the people in the industry. Yet if you are to ask most ship-owners if they are happy with the market, you will get a reply “mmmh... not really...”. The market hike seems to have hit a ceiling the past months and whilst the ship earnings have doubled or tripled compared to two years ago, they still seem to be just a touch (?) away from their break-even. Also, opposite to the common belief, during the past few months instead of further improvement we have seen a lot of volatility and a resistance to get to higher levels.
On the ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by 181 vessels since last year corresponding to a marginal growth of just below 2%. This moderate fleet increase versus four percent global growth has no doubt been a major driver of the recovery. Looking forward, there has been some order replenishment and in fact the orderbook is today bigger than what it was a year ago; about half of the new orders are Kamsarmaxes, generating some concerns on over ordering and affecting an already fragile market. On the other hand we can easily argue that the environmental regulations that are coming into force over the next couple of years, will call on owners to make substantial investments in their assets and we don't expect them to upgrade their older vessels. Current orderbook – not including slippage/cancellations – stands at 8.5% of the world fleet and with 9% of the fleet being over 20 years old you have a good release valve to balance the new deliveries.
On the other side of the equation there still is a growing demand for seaborne transportation. The population continues to expand, emerging countries continue to absorb shipping goods and raw materials, so - still being the most fuel efficient and environment friendly form of commercial transport – seaborne trade will continue to grow; this is a fact. On the other hand, shipping is inherently correlated to the world economy, so the trade contraction from trade wars, may translate into reduction in demand for shipping, and although China is no longer growing at eight or ten percent annually, it's still leading the demand for tonne miles. To put it simply, the demand is under short term shakedown from president Trump. Up until today, the markets have been on wait-and-see mode whether the threats are valid and how far the confrontation will go. The US president's tariffs have been met with Chinese retaliation and Beijing administration confident that they can cope with full scale trade war.
So, although we don't see a ceiling, since there seem to be strong fundamentals for the market to improve further, we are now on a kind of a plateau whereby there are economic as well as political reasons that are preventing markets to improve further. For shipping we believe that this will work in its favour in the longer term as, although it's a good entry point for investments and the upside is there, it makes the ship-owners more careful, patient and they avoid overreactions. This situation should also remind everybody that shipping is an infinite game and the objective of the players – both know and unknown - is to perpetuate the game.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 11 April 18
CHINA UTILITIES PLAN NEW COAL IMPORT PRICE INDEX TO CURB VOLATILITY - REUTERS
China’s major utilities are preparing to launch their own coal price index for imports, an official at China Huaneng Group said, in a move th ...
Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most li ...
Tuesday, 10 April 18
BUMA GRANTED ADDITIONAL LOAN FACILITY FROM BTMU TO SUPPORT GROWTH
Press Release: PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. is pleased to announce that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama ("BUMA"), signed an a ...
Monday, 09 April 18
APRIL INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE DROPS TO LOWEST IN 2018
COALspot.com: According to latest ministerial decree, the Indonesian Coal Price Reference (HBA) decline 6.98 per cent in April 2018 compared to Mar ...
Friday, 06 April 18
TOP MINER BHP QUITS WORLD COAL ASSOCIATION OVER CLIMATE CLASH - BLOOMBERG
BHP Billiton Ltd. has severed ties with the World Coal Association over a clash of views on how to combat climate change, with the mining giant say ...
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- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The University of Queensland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- White Energy Company Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
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