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Wednesday, 12 September 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 A recovery in the shipping market since last year has buoyed optimism amongst the people in the industry. Yet if you are to ask most ship-owners if they are happy with the market, you will get a reply “mmmh... not really...”. The market hike seems to have hit a ceiling the past months and whilst the ship earnings have doubled or tripled compared to two years ago, they still seem to be just a touch (?) away from their break-even. Also, opposite to the common belief, during the past few months instead of further improvement we have seen a lot of volatility and a resistance to get to higher levels.
On the ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by 181 vessels since last year corresponding to a marginal growth of just below 2%. This moderate fleet increase versus four percent global growth has no doubt been a major driver of the recovery. Looking forward, there has been some order replenishment and in fact the orderbook is today bigger than what it was a year ago; about half of the new orders are Kamsarmaxes, generating some concerns on over ordering and affecting an already fragile market. On the other hand we can easily argue that the environmental regulations that are coming into force over the next couple of years, will call on owners to make substantial investments in their assets and we don't expect them to upgrade their older vessels. Current orderbook – not including slippage/cancellations – stands at 8.5% of the world fleet and with 9% of the fleet being over 20 years old you have a good release valve to balance the new deliveries.
On the other side of the equation there still is a growing demand for seaborne transportation. The population continues to expand, emerging countries continue to absorb shipping goods and raw materials, so - still being the most fuel efficient and environment friendly form of commercial transport – seaborne trade will continue to grow; this is a fact. On the other hand, shipping is inherently correlated to the world economy, so the trade contraction from trade wars, may translate into reduction in demand for shipping, and although China is no longer growing at eight or ten percent annually, it's still leading the demand for tonne miles. To put it simply, the demand is under short term shakedown from president Trump. Up until today, the markets have been on wait-and-see mode whether the threats are valid and how far the confrontation will go. The US president's tariffs have been met with Chinese retaliation and Beijing administration confident that they can cope with full scale trade war.
So, although we don't see a ceiling, since there seem to be strong fundamentals for the market to improve further, we are now on a kind of a plateau whereby there are economic as well as political reasons that are preventing markets to improve further. For shipping we believe that this will work in its favour in the longer term as, although it's a good entry point for investments and the upside is there, it makes the ship-owners more careful, patient and they avoid overreactions. This situation should also remind everybody that shipping is an infinite game and the objective of the players – both know and unknown - is to perpetuate the game.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 26 June 18
A SHARP RISE IN THE PRICE OF CRUDE OIL WAS TO BE SEEN ON FRIDAY, ITS BIGGEST DAILY GAIN IN TWO YEARS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
A sharp rise in the price of crude oil was to be seen on Friday, its biggest daily gain in two years, as OPEC reached a deal to raise output. Despi ...
Monday, 25 June 18
AUSTRALIA'S NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 12.179 MT OF COAL IN MAY; DOWN 14.77% M/M
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $AU1,453.6 Mi ...
Monday, 25 June 18
COAL IN THE CROSSFIRE: CHINESE TRADERS WARY OF BEING BURNT BY TRADE WAR - REUTERS
At least three U.S. coal shipments on their way to China may end up casualties of the escalating trade dispute after Beijing said it would impose s ...
Saturday, 23 June 18
COAL GROUP TARGETS 9 PER CENT REVENUE SPIKE - VIET NAM NEWS
Viet Nam News reported, the Viet Nam National Coal and Mineral Industries Group (Vinacomin or TKV) is targeting VNĐ116.9 trillion (US$5.1 billion) ...
Thursday, 21 June 18
ROBUST ASIAN THERMAL COAL DEMAND CREATES OPPORTUNITIES FOR AUSTRALIA - MINERALS COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA
Minerals Council of Australia reported, Australia’s world-class coal mining industry can create more jobs in Australia and strengthen t ...
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The University of Queensland
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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