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Wednesday, 12 September 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 A recovery in the shipping market since last year has buoyed optimism amongst the people in the industry. Yet if you are to ask most ship-owners if they are happy with the market, you will get a reply “mmmh... not really...”. The market hike seems to have hit a ceiling the past months and whilst the ship earnings have doubled or tripled compared to two years ago, they still seem to be just a touch (?) away from their break-even. Also, opposite to the common belief, during the past few months instead of further improvement we have seen a lot of volatility and a resistance to get to higher levels.
On the ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by 181 vessels since last year corresponding to a marginal growth of just below 2%. This moderate fleet increase versus four percent global growth has no doubt been a major driver of the recovery. Looking forward, there has been some order replenishment and in fact the orderbook is today bigger than what it was a year ago; about half of the new orders are Kamsarmaxes, generating some concerns on over ordering and affecting an already fragile market. On the other hand we can easily argue that the environmental regulations that are coming into force over the next couple of years, will call on owners to make substantial investments in their assets and we don't expect them to upgrade their older vessels. Current orderbook – not including slippage/cancellations – stands at 8.5% of the world fleet and with 9% of the fleet being over 20 years old you have a good release valve to balance the new deliveries.
On the other side of the equation there still is a growing demand for seaborne transportation. The population continues to expand, emerging countries continue to absorb shipping goods and raw materials, so - still being the most fuel efficient and environment friendly form of commercial transport – seaborne trade will continue to grow; this is a fact. On the other hand, shipping is inherently correlated to the world economy, so the trade contraction from trade wars, may translate into reduction in demand for shipping, and although China is no longer growing at eight or ten percent annually, it's still leading the demand for tonne miles. To put it simply, the demand is under short term shakedown from president Trump. Up until today, the markets have been on wait-and-see mode whether the threats are valid and how far the confrontation will go. The US president's tariffs have been met with Chinese retaliation and Beijing administration confident that they can cope with full scale trade war.
So, although we don't see a ceiling, since there seem to be strong fundamentals for the market to improve further, we are now on a kind of a plateau whereby there are economic as well as political reasons that are preventing markets to improve further. For shipping we believe that this will work in its favour in the longer term as, although it's a good entry point for investments and the upside is there, it makes the ship-owners more careful, patient and they avoid overreactions. This situation should also remind everybody that shipping is an infinite game and the objective of the players – both know and unknown - is to perpetuate the game.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 04 July 18
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
2 years tanker briefing in tanker asset prices
The tanker market is undoubtedly passing one of its’ roughest times over the la ...
Tuesday, 03 July 18
COAL, THE SECOND MAIN COMMODITY FOR CAPES, HAS BEEN SHOWING A REMARKABLE RISE IN TRADE VOLUMES IN THE YEAR SO FAR - THOMAS CHASAPIS
Having reached the mid-point in the year, it seems to be a good time to summarize the overall trends noted in the Dry Bulk sector and more specific ...
Tuesday, 03 July 18
SUPRAMAX: A 56,000-DWT WAS FIXED BASIS DELIVERY SINGAPORE TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY CHINA, AT $12,100 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market generally drifted and by mid-week dropped to what some felt was an artificially low level, only to bounce back at the end o ...
Tuesday, 03 July 18
COAL OVERTAKES IRON ORE IN GOVERNMENT FORECASTS AS AUSTRALIA'S LARGEST EXPORT FOR 2018-19 - MINERALS COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA
Coal is forecast to be Australia’s largest export earner at $58.1 billion in 2018-19 with iron ore exports forecast to earn $57.7 billion in ...
Monday, 02 July 18
THIESS SECURES NEW QCOAL NORTHERN HUB $480M CONTRACT
Thiess has been awarded a new A$480 million contract by QCoal to continue operations at the QCoal Northern Hub located in Queensland’s Bowen ...
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The University of Queensland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
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