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Wednesday, 12 September 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 A recovery in the shipping market since last year has buoyed optimism amongst the people in the industry. Yet if you are to ask most ship-owners if they are happy with the market, you will get a reply “mmmh... not really...”. The market hike seems to have hit a ceiling the past months and whilst the ship earnings have doubled or tripled compared to two years ago, they still seem to be just a touch (?) away from their break-even. Also, opposite to the common belief, during the past few months instead of further improvement we have seen a lot of volatility and a resistance to get to higher levels.
On the ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by 181 vessels since last year corresponding to a marginal growth of just below 2%. This moderate fleet increase versus four percent global growth has no doubt been a major driver of the recovery. Looking forward, there has been some order replenishment and in fact the orderbook is today bigger than what it was a year ago; about half of the new orders are Kamsarmaxes, generating some concerns on over ordering and affecting an already fragile market. On the other hand we can easily argue that the environmental regulations that are coming into force over the next couple of years, will call on owners to make substantial investments in their assets and we don't expect them to upgrade their older vessels. Current orderbook – not including slippage/cancellations – stands at 8.5% of the world fleet and with 9% of the fleet being over 20 years old you have a good release valve to balance the new deliveries.
On the other side of the equation there still is a growing demand for seaborne transportation. The population continues to expand, emerging countries continue to absorb shipping goods and raw materials, so - still being the most fuel efficient and environment friendly form of commercial transport – seaborne trade will continue to grow; this is a fact. On the other hand, shipping is inherently correlated to the world economy, so the trade contraction from trade wars, may translate into reduction in demand for shipping, and although China is no longer growing at eight or ten percent annually, it's still leading the demand for tonne miles. To put it simply, the demand is under short term shakedown from president Trump. Up until today, the markets have been on wait-and-see mode whether the threats are valid and how far the confrontation will go. The US president's tariffs have been met with Chinese retaliation and Beijing administration confident that they can cope with full scale trade war.
So, although we don't see a ceiling, since there seem to be strong fundamentals for the market to improve further, we are now on a kind of a plateau whereby there are economic as well as political reasons that are preventing markets to improve further. For shipping we believe that this will work in its favour in the longer term as, although it's a good entry point for investments and the upside is there, it makes the ship-owners more careful, patient and they avoid overreactions. This situation should also remind everybody that shipping is an infinite game and the objective of the players – both know and unknown - is to perpetuate the game.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 10 July 18
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
The trade dispute saga continued over the past week, as new tariffs were put into force on Friday in both the U.S. and China and have already taken ...
Tuesday, 10 July 18
SUPPORTING SULPHUR 2020 CONSISTENT IMPLEMENTATION - IMO
An IMO working group is meeting (9-13 July) to develop guidelines to support the consistent implementation of the 0.50% limit for the sulphur conte ...
Monday, 09 July 18
RISING COAL PRICES LIFTING AUSTRALIA'S EXPORT REVENUES BUT INVESTORS STAYING AWAY - NEWCASTLE HERALD
Newcastle coal prices have risen more than 40 per cent in a year to be at their highest levels for seven years but the industry is becoming increas ...
Saturday, 07 July 18
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN MARKET STRUGGLED; A 57K-DWT WAS REPORTED FIXED BASIS DELIVERY SINGAPORE FOR A TRIP VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY INDIA AT $12K
Capesize
A punchy week for the big ships that saw Atlantic rates soar, with the tonnage list tight prompting charterers to split cargoes, thoug ...
Friday, 06 July 18
COAL PRICES HAVE REMAINED STRONG BUT ARE SET TO DECLINE - NAB
Coal spot prices have been highly volatile in recent years, with an upward trend since recent lows in April 2018, National Australia Bank says in i ...
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
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