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Wednesday, 12 September 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 A recovery in the shipping market since last year has buoyed optimism amongst the people in the industry. Yet if you are to ask most ship-owners if they are happy with the market, you will get a reply “mmmh... not really...”. The market hike seems to have hit a ceiling the past months and whilst the ship earnings have doubled or tripled compared to two years ago, they still seem to be just a touch (?) away from their break-even. Also, opposite to the common belief, during the past few months instead of further improvement we have seen a lot of volatility and a resistance to get to higher levels.
On the ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by 181 vessels since last year corresponding to a marginal growth of just below 2%. This moderate fleet increase versus four percent global growth has no doubt been a major driver of the recovery. Looking forward, there has been some order replenishment and in fact the orderbook is today bigger than what it was a year ago; about half of the new orders are Kamsarmaxes, generating some concerns on over ordering and affecting an already fragile market. On the other hand we can easily argue that the environmental regulations that are coming into force over the next couple of years, will call on owners to make substantial investments in their assets and we don't expect them to upgrade their older vessels. Current orderbook – not including slippage/cancellations – stands at 8.5% of the world fleet and with 9% of the fleet being over 20 years old you have a good release valve to balance the new deliveries.
On the other side of the equation there still is a growing demand for seaborne transportation. The population continues to expand, emerging countries continue to absorb shipping goods and raw materials, so - still being the most fuel efficient and environment friendly form of commercial transport – seaborne trade will continue to grow; this is a fact. On the other hand, shipping is inherently correlated to the world economy, so the trade contraction from trade wars, may translate into reduction in demand for shipping, and although China is no longer growing at eight or ten percent annually, it's still leading the demand for tonne miles. To put it simply, the demand is under short term shakedown from president Trump. Up until today, the markets have been on wait-and-see mode whether the threats are valid and how far the confrontation will go. The US president's tariffs have been met with Chinese retaliation and Beijing administration confident that they can cope with full scale trade war.
So, although we don't see a ceiling, since there seem to be strong fundamentals for the market to improve further, we are now on a kind of a plateau whereby there are economic as well as political reasons that are preventing markets to improve further. For shipping we believe that this will work in its favour in the longer term as, although it's a good entry point for investments and the upside is there, it makes the ship-owners more careful, patient and they avoid overreactions. This situation should also remind everybody that shipping is an infinite game and the objective of the players – both know and unknown - is to perpetuate the game.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 28 July 18
GOVERNMENT TO REVOKE COAL PRICE CAP POLICY - JP
The government plans to revise its domestic market obligation (DMO) on coal price next week during a high-level meeting with President Joko “ ...
Thursday, 26 July 18
A SUPRAMAX IS NOW PAID AROUND USD 21,500 FOR LOADING IN THE US GULF WITH DISCHARGE IN THE FAR EAST - FEARNLEYS
Cape
There has been a relatively strong summer period so far, and there is a strong week we have left behind us.
In the Pa ...
Thursday, 26 July 18
ASEAN COAL IMPORTS INCREASED IN 2Q' 18 COMPARED TO THE PRIOR YEAR; THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS 56 GIGAWATTS OF NEW COAL PLANTS IN 24 COUNTRIES WORLDWIDE ARE EXPECTED TO COME ONLINE IN 2018 - PEABODY
Peabody announced its second quarter 2018 operating results, including revenues of $1.31 billion, income from continuing operations, net of income ...
Wednesday, 25 July 18
COAL MINER BUKIT ASAM'S PROFIT GROWS 50% IN FIRST HALF - JP
Coal miner Bukit Asam announced 50 percent profit growth to Rp 2.58 trillion (US$177.33 million) in the first half of 2018, on the back of a coal-p ...
Wednesday, 25 July 18
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - DIMITRIS KOURTESIS
We are now into the second half of 2018, which so far has not been a fruitful year for tankers. With 2020 quickly approaching we need to consider t ...
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- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
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