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Wednesday, 12 September 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 A recovery in the shipping market since last year has buoyed optimism amongst the people in the industry. Yet if you are to ask most ship-owners if they are happy with the market, you will get a reply “mmmh... not really...”. The market hike seems to have hit a ceiling the past months and whilst the ship earnings have doubled or tripled compared to two years ago, they still seem to be just a touch (?) away from their break-even. Also, opposite to the common belief, during the past few months instead of further improvement we have seen a lot of volatility and a resistance to get to higher levels.
On the ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by 181 vessels since last year corresponding to a marginal growth of just below 2%. This moderate fleet increase versus four percent global growth has no doubt been a major driver of the recovery. Looking forward, there has been some order replenishment and in fact the orderbook is today bigger than what it was a year ago; about half of the new orders are Kamsarmaxes, generating some concerns on over ordering and affecting an already fragile market. On the other hand we can easily argue that the environmental regulations that are coming into force over the next couple of years, will call on owners to make substantial investments in their assets and we don't expect them to upgrade their older vessels. Current orderbook – not including slippage/cancellations – stands at 8.5% of the world fleet and with 9% of the fleet being over 20 years old you have a good release valve to balance the new deliveries.
On the other side of the equation there still is a growing demand for seaborne transportation. The population continues to expand, emerging countries continue to absorb shipping goods and raw materials, so - still being the most fuel efficient and environment friendly form of commercial transport – seaborne trade will continue to grow; this is a fact. On the other hand, shipping is inherently correlated to the world economy, so the trade contraction from trade wars, may translate into reduction in demand for shipping, and although China is no longer growing at eight or ten percent annually, it's still leading the demand for tonne miles. To put it simply, the demand is under short term shakedown from president Trump. Up until today, the markets have been on wait-and-see mode whether the threats are valid and how far the confrontation will go. The US president's tariffs have been met with Chinese retaliation and Beijing administration confident that they can cope with full scale trade war.
So, although we don't see a ceiling, since there seem to be strong fundamentals for the market to improve further, we are now on a kind of a plateau whereby there are economic as well as political reasons that are preventing markets to improve further. For shipping we believe that this will work in its favour in the longer term as, although it's a good entry point for investments and the upside is there, it makes the ship-owners more careful, patient and they avoid overreactions. This situation should also remind everybody that shipping is an infinite game and the objective of the players – both know and unknown - is to perpetuate the game.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 28 July 18
GOVERNMENT TO REVOKE COAL PRICE CAP POLICY - JP
The government plans to revise its domestic market obligation (DMO) on coal price next week during a high-level meeting with President Joko “ ...
Thursday, 26 July 18
A SUPRAMAX IS NOW PAID AROUND USD 21,500 FOR LOADING IN THE US GULF WITH DISCHARGE IN THE FAR EAST - FEARNLEYS
Cape
There has been a relatively strong summer period so far, and there is a strong week we have left behind us.
In the Pa ...
Thursday, 26 July 18
ASEAN COAL IMPORTS INCREASED IN 2Q' 18 COMPARED TO THE PRIOR YEAR; THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS 56 GIGAWATTS OF NEW COAL PLANTS IN 24 COUNTRIES WORLDWIDE ARE EXPECTED TO COME ONLINE IN 2018 - PEABODY
Peabody announced its second quarter 2018 operating results, including revenues of $1.31 billion, income from continuing operations, net of income ...
Wednesday, 25 July 18
COAL MINER BUKIT ASAM'S PROFIT GROWS 50% IN FIRST HALF - JP
Coal miner Bukit Asam announced 50 percent profit growth to Rp 2.58 trillion (US$177.33 million) in the first half of 2018, on the back of a coal-p ...
Wednesday, 25 July 18
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - DIMITRIS KOURTESIS
We are now into the second half of 2018, which so far has not been a fruitful year for tankers. With 2020 quickly approaching we need to consider t ...
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- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
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