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Wednesday, 12 September 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 A recovery in the shipping market since last year has buoyed optimism amongst the people in the industry. Yet if you are to ask most ship-owners if they are happy with the market, you will get a reply “mmmh... not really...”. The market hike seems to have hit a ceiling the past months and whilst the ship earnings have doubled or tripled compared to two years ago, they still seem to be just a touch (?) away from their break-even. Also, opposite to the common belief, during the past few months instead of further improvement we have seen a lot of volatility and a resistance to get to higher levels.
On the ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by 181 vessels since last year corresponding to a marginal growth of just below 2%. This moderate fleet increase versus four percent global growth has no doubt been a major driver of the recovery. Looking forward, there has been some order replenishment and in fact the orderbook is today bigger than what it was a year ago; about half of the new orders are Kamsarmaxes, generating some concerns on over ordering and affecting an already fragile market. On the other hand we can easily argue that the environmental regulations that are coming into force over the next couple of years, will call on owners to make substantial investments in their assets and we don't expect them to upgrade their older vessels. Current orderbook – not including slippage/cancellations – stands at 8.5% of the world fleet and with 9% of the fleet being over 20 years old you have a good release valve to balance the new deliveries.
On the other side of the equation there still is a growing demand for seaborne transportation. The population continues to expand, emerging countries continue to absorb shipping goods and raw materials, so - still being the most fuel efficient and environment friendly form of commercial transport – seaborne trade will continue to grow; this is a fact. On the other hand, shipping is inherently correlated to the world economy, so the trade contraction from trade wars, may translate into reduction in demand for shipping, and although China is no longer growing at eight or ten percent annually, it's still leading the demand for tonne miles. To put it simply, the demand is under short term shakedown from president Trump. Up until today, the markets have been on wait-and-see mode whether the threats are valid and how far the confrontation will go. The US president's tariffs have been met with Chinese retaliation and Beijing administration confident that they can cope with full scale trade war.
So, although we don't see a ceiling, since there seem to be strong fundamentals for the market to improve further, we are now on a kind of a plateau whereby there are economic as well as political reasons that are preventing markets to improve further. For shipping we believe that this will work in its favour in the longer term as, although it's a good entry point for investments and the upside is there, it makes the ship-owners more careful, patient and they avoid overreactions. This situation should also remind everybody that shipping is an infinite game and the objective of the players – both know and unknown - is to perpetuate the game.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 09 August 18
RIO TINTO COMPLETES SALE OF REMAINING COAL ASSETS
Rio Tinto has completed the sale of its remaining coal assets in Queensland, Australia, for $3.95 billion.
According to a noted post ...
Wednesday, 08 August 18
CHINA DEMANDS PREMIUM IRON ORE, COAL; MINERS MIXED IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
China’s stricter environmental regulations and structural changes in its steelmaking industry boosts ongoing demand for high-quality iron ore ...
Wednesday, 08 August 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - CHRISTOPHER WHITTY
Singapore's shipyard business has evolved over the decades, from shipbuilding and repairs to rig building. It's now evolving again, to cate ...
Friday, 03 August 18
PHEW! ASIA, EUROPE HEATWAVE PUSHES AUSTRALIA COAL PRICES TO 6-YEAR HIGH: REUTERS
Australian thermal coal prices have hit fresh six-year highs as a heatwave across the northern hemisphere has triggered a spike in demand for coal- ...
Friday, 03 August 18
HBA HAS RISEN 28.41 PER CENT IN A YEAR TO BE AT THEIR HIGHEST LEVELS SINCE JANUARY 2012
COALspot.com: The benchmark price of Indonesian thermal coal has risen 28.41 per cent in a year to be at their highest levels since January 2012.&n ...
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Planning Commission, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
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