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Wednesday, 12 September 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 A recovery in the shipping market since last year has buoyed optimism amongst the people in the industry. Yet if you are to ask most ship-owners if they are happy with the market, you will get a reply “mmmh... not really...”. The market hike seems to have hit a ceiling the past months and whilst the ship earnings have doubled or tripled compared to two years ago, they still seem to be just a touch (?) away from their break-even. Also, opposite to the common belief, during the past few months instead of further improvement we have seen a lot of volatility and a resistance to get to higher levels.
On the ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by 181 vessels since last year corresponding to a marginal growth of just below 2%. This moderate fleet increase versus four percent global growth has no doubt been a major driver of the recovery. Looking forward, there has been some order replenishment and in fact the orderbook is today bigger than what it was a year ago; about half of the new orders are Kamsarmaxes, generating some concerns on over ordering and affecting an already fragile market. On the other hand we can easily argue that the environmental regulations that are coming into force over the next couple of years, will call on owners to make substantial investments in their assets and we don't expect them to upgrade their older vessels. Current orderbook – not including slippage/cancellations – stands at 8.5% of the world fleet and with 9% of the fleet being over 20 years old you have a good release valve to balance the new deliveries.
On the other side of the equation there still is a growing demand for seaborne transportation. The population continues to expand, emerging countries continue to absorb shipping goods and raw materials, so - still being the most fuel efficient and environment friendly form of commercial transport – seaborne trade will continue to grow; this is a fact. On the other hand, shipping is inherently correlated to the world economy, so the trade contraction from trade wars, may translate into reduction in demand for shipping, and although China is no longer growing at eight or ten percent annually, it's still leading the demand for tonne miles. To put it simply, the demand is under short term shakedown from president Trump. Up until today, the markets have been on wait-and-see mode whether the threats are valid and how far the confrontation will go. The US president's tariffs have been met with Chinese retaliation and Beijing administration confident that they can cope with full scale trade war.
So, although we don't see a ceiling, since there seem to be strong fundamentals for the market to improve further, we are now on a kind of a plateau whereby there are economic as well as political reasons that are preventing markets to improve further. For shipping we believe that this will work in its favour in the longer term as, although it's a good entry point for investments and the upside is there, it makes the ship-owners more careful, patient and they avoid overreactions. This situation should also remind everybody that shipping is an infinite game and the objective of the players – both know and unknown - is to perpetuate the game.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 09 August 18
RIO TINTO COMPLETES SALE OF REMAINING COAL ASSETS
Rio Tinto has completed the sale of its remaining coal assets in Queensland, Australia, for $3.95 billion.
According to a noted post ...
Wednesday, 08 August 18
CHINA DEMANDS PREMIUM IRON ORE, COAL; MINERS MIXED IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
China’s stricter environmental regulations and structural changes in its steelmaking industry boosts ongoing demand for high-quality iron ore ...
Wednesday, 08 August 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - CHRISTOPHER WHITTY
Singapore's shipyard business has evolved over the decades, from shipbuilding and repairs to rig building. It's now evolving again, to cate ...
Friday, 03 August 18
PHEW! ASIA, EUROPE HEATWAVE PUSHES AUSTRALIA COAL PRICES TO 6-YEAR HIGH: REUTERS
Australian thermal coal prices have hit fresh six-year highs as a heatwave across the northern hemisphere has triggered a spike in demand for coal- ...
Friday, 03 August 18
HBA HAS RISEN 28.41 PER CENT IN A YEAR TO BE AT THEIR HIGHEST LEVELS SINCE JANUARY 2012
COALspot.com: The benchmark price of Indonesian thermal coal has risen 28.41 per cent in a year to be at their highest levels since January 2012.&n ...
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- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
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