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Wednesday, 12 September 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 A recovery in the shipping market since last year has buoyed optimism amongst the people in the industry. Yet if you are to ask most ship-owners if they are happy with the market, you will get a reply “mmmh... not really...”. The market hike seems to have hit a ceiling the past months and whilst the ship earnings have doubled or tripled compared to two years ago, they still seem to be just a touch (?) away from their break-even. Also, opposite to the common belief, during the past few months instead of further improvement we have seen a lot of volatility and a resistance to get to higher levels.
On the ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by 181 vessels since last year corresponding to a marginal growth of just below 2%. This moderate fleet increase versus four percent global growth has no doubt been a major driver of the recovery. Looking forward, there has been some order replenishment and in fact the orderbook is today bigger than what it was a year ago; about half of the new orders are Kamsarmaxes, generating some concerns on over ordering and affecting an already fragile market. On the other hand we can easily argue that the environmental regulations that are coming into force over the next couple of years, will call on owners to make substantial investments in their assets and we don't expect them to upgrade their older vessels. Current orderbook – not including slippage/cancellations – stands at 8.5% of the world fleet and with 9% of the fleet being over 20 years old you have a good release valve to balance the new deliveries.
On the other side of the equation there still is a growing demand for seaborne transportation. The population continues to expand, emerging countries continue to absorb shipping goods and raw materials, so - still being the most fuel efficient and environment friendly form of commercial transport – seaborne trade will continue to grow; this is a fact. On the other hand, shipping is inherently correlated to the world economy, so the trade contraction from trade wars, may translate into reduction in demand for shipping, and although China is no longer growing at eight or ten percent annually, it's still leading the demand for tonne miles. To put it simply, the demand is under short term shakedown from president Trump. Up until today, the markets have been on wait-and-see mode whether the threats are valid and how far the confrontation will go. The US president's tariffs have been met with Chinese retaliation and Beijing administration confident that they can cope with full scale trade war.
So, although we don't see a ceiling, since there seem to be strong fundamentals for the market to improve further, we are now on a kind of a plateau whereby there are economic as well as political reasons that are preventing markets to improve further. For shipping we believe that this will work in its favour in the longer term as, although it's a good entry point for investments and the upside is there, it makes the ship-owners more careful, patient and they avoid overreactions. This situation should also remind everybody that shipping is an infinite game and the objective of the players – both know and unknown - is to perpetuate the game.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 16 August 18
COAL PRODUCTION AT 37.11 PERCENT OF FULL-YEAR TARGET - THE JAKARTA POST
Indonesian coal production was recorded at 180 million tons on Wednesday, or 37.11 percent of the government’s 485 million target this year.
...
Thursday, 16 August 18
OIL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
In July, the OPEC Reference Basket increased marginally by 5¢ m-o-m to settle at $73.27/b. Oil futures saw mixed ...
Tuesday, 14 August 18
THE CAPESIZE MARKET HAS SHOWN A TREMENDOUS COURSE DURING THE PAST 12 MONTHS - THOMAS CHASAPIS
The Capesize market has shown a tremendous course during the past 12 months, having quickly climbed out of the “hole that it had found itself ...
Monday, 13 August 18
A 50,200 DWT FIXED DELIVERY SINGAPORE TRIP VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY CHINA IN THE LOW $10,000S - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Expectations of a further push in the market were largely unfulfilled last week as rates come under pressure in Asia as the North Atla ...
Friday, 10 August 18
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TO DECLINE BY 1.8% IN 2019 BECAUSE COAL EXPORTS AND COAL CONSUMPTION ARE BOTH FORECAST TO DECREASE - EIA
EIA forecasts U.S. coal production will decline by 1.1% to 766 million short tons (MMst) in 2018 despite a 5.7% (6 MMst) increase in coal exports.
...
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- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
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