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Wednesday, 12 September 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 A recovery in the shipping market since last year has buoyed optimism amongst the people in the industry. Yet if you are to ask most ship-owners if they are happy with the market, you will get a reply “mmmh... not really...”. The market hike seems to have hit a ceiling the past months and whilst the ship earnings have doubled or tripled compared to two years ago, they still seem to be just a touch (?) away from their break-even. Also, opposite to the common belief, during the past few months instead of further improvement we have seen a lot of volatility and a resistance to get to higher levels.
On the ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by 181 vessels since last year corresponding to a marginal growth of just below 2%. This moderate fleet increase versus four percent global growth has no doubt been a major driver of the recovery. Looking forward, there has been some order replenishment and in fact the orderbook is today bigger than what it was a year ago; about half of the new orders are Kamsarmaxes, generating some concerns on over ordering and affecting an already fragile market. On the other hand we can easily argue that the environmental regulations that are coming into force over the next couple of years, will call on owners to make substantial investments in their assets and we don't expect them to upgrade their older vessels. Current orderbook – not including slippage/cancellations – stands at 8.5% of the world fleet and with 9% of the fleet being over 20 years old you have a good release valve to balance the new deliveries.
On the other side of the equation there still is a growing demand for seaborne transportation. The population continues to expand, emerging countries continue to absorb shipping goods and raw materials, so - still being the most fuel efficient and environment friendly form of commercial transport – seaborne trade will continue to grow; this is a fact. On the other hand, shipping is inherently correlated to the world economy, so the trade contraction from trade wars, may translate into reduction in demand for shipping, and although China is no longer growing at eight or ten percent annually, it's still leading the demand for tonne miles. To put it simply, the demand is under short term shakedown from president Trump. Up until today, the markets have been on wait-and-see mode whether the threats are valid and how far the confrontation will go. The US president's tariffs have been met with Chinese retaliation and Beijing administration confident that they can cope with full scale trade war.
So, although we don't see a ceiling, since there seem to be strong fundamentals for the market to improve further, we are now on a kind of a plateau whereby there are economic as well as political reasons that are preventing markets to improve further. For shipping we believe that this will work in its favour in the longer term as, although it's a good entry point for investments and the upside is there, it makes the ship-owners more careful, patient and they avoid overreactions. This situation should also remind everybody that shipping is an infinite game and the objective of the players – both know and unknown - is to perpetuate the game.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 22 August 18
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 480K TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR BORYEONG POWER PLANT & SHIN BORYEONG POWER PLANTS
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for 480,000 mt of min. 5700 NAR coal of Australian origi ...
Wednesday, 22 August 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE PANAGOPOULOS
During the most quite week of the summer period we witnessed a trade war between United States and Turkey. A battle, which started with the arrest ...
Monday, 20 August 18
SUPRAMAX: OVERALL IT WAS A POSITIVE WEEK FOR THE BSI INDEX WITH GAINS MADE - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A week of largely unfulfilled expectations with holidays again curbing activity. Rates remained essentially healthy, but despite bad wea ...
Friday, 17 August 18
DO ARBITRATION AGREEMENTS IN BILLS OF LADING BIND THEIR HOLDERS? - WFW
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Bills of lading are a crucial part of the security package traditionally sought by trade finance providers.
...
Friday, 17 August 18
MALAYSIA'S MANJUNG 4 - WORLD COAL ASSOCIATION
According to the IEA’s Energy Access Outlook 2017 report, nearly all of those who gained access to electricity worldwide in the last 16 years ...
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- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The University of Queensland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Coal Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
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