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Wednesday, 12 September 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 A recovery in the shipping market since last year has buoyed optimism amongst the people in the industry. Yet if you are to ask most ship-owners if they are happy with the market, you will get a reply “mmmh... not really...”. The market hike seems to have hit a ceiling the past months and whilst the ship earnings have doubled or tripled compared to two years ago, they still seem to be just a touch (?) away from their break-even. Also, opposite to the common belief, during the past few months instead of further improvement we have seen a lot of volatility and a resistance to get to higher levels.
On the ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by 181 vessels since last year corresponding to a marginal growth of just below 2%. This moderate fleet increase versus four percent global growth has no doubt been a major driver of the recovery. Looking forward, there has been some order replenishment and in fact the orderbook is today bigger than what it was a year ago; about half of the new orders are Kamsarmaxes, generating some concerns on over ordering and affecting an already fragile market. On the other hand we can easily argue that the environmental regulations that are coming into force over the next couple of years, will call on owners to make substantial investments in their assets and we don't expect them to upgrade their older vessels. Current orderbook – not including slippage/cancellations – stands at 8.5% of the world fleet and with 9% of the fleet being over 20 years old you have a good release valve to balance the new deliveries.
On the other side of the equation there still is a growing demand for seaborne transportation. The population continues to expand, emerging countries continue to absorb shipping goods and raw materials, so - still being the most fuel efficient and environment friendly form of commercial transport – seaborne trade will continue to grow; this is a fact. On the other hand, shipping is inherently correlated to the world economy, so the trade contraction from trade wars, may translate into reduction in demand for shipping, and although China is no longer growing at eight or ten percent annually, it's still leading the demand for tonne miles. To put it simply, the demand is under short term shakedown from president Trump. Up until today, the markets have been on wait-and-see mode whether the threats are valid and how far the confrontation will go. The US president's tariffs have been met with Chinese retaliation and Beijing administration confident that they can cope with full scale trade war.
So, although we don't see a ceiling, since there seem to be strong fundamentals for the market to improve further, we are now on a kind of a plateau whereby there are economic as well as political reasons that are preventing markets to improve further. For shipping we believe that this will work in its favour in the longer term as, although it's a good entry point for investments and the upside is there, it makes the ship-owners more careful, patient and they avoid overreactions. This situation should also remind everybody that shipping is an infinite game and the objective of the players – both know and unknown - is to perpetuate the game.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 22 August 18
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 480K TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR BORYEONG POWER PLANT & SHIN BORYEONG POWER PLANTS
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for 480,000 mt of min. 5700 NAR coal of Australian origi ...
Wednesday, 22 August 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE PANAGOPOULOS
During the most quite week of the summer period we witnessed a trade war between United States and Turkey. A battle, which started with the arrest ...
Monday, 20 August 18
SUPRAMAX: OVERALL IT WAS A POSITIVE WEEK FOR THE BSI INDEX WITH GAINS MADE - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A week of largely unfulfilled expectations with holidays again curbing activity. Rates remained essentially healthy, but despite bad wea ...
Friday, 17 August 18
DO ARBITRATION AGREEMENTS IN BILLS OF LADING BIND THEIR HOLDERS? - WFW
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Bills of lading are a crucial part of the security package traditionally sought by trade finance providers.
...
Friday, 17 August 18
MALAYSIA'S MANJUNG 4 - WORLD COAL ASSOCIATION
According to the IEA’s Energy Access Outlook 2017 report, nearly all of those who gained access to electricity worldwide in the last 16 years ...
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- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Coal Association
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
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