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Wednesday, 12 September 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 A recovery in the shipping market since last year has buoyed optimism amongst the people in the industry. Yet if you are to ask most ship-owners if they are happy with the market, you will get a reply “mmmh... not really...”. The market hike seems to have hit a ceiling the past months and whilst the ship earnings have doubled or tripled compared to two years ago, they still seem to be just a touch (?) away from their break-even. Also, opposite to the common belief, during the past few months instead of further improvement we have seen a lot of volatility and a resistance to get to higher levels.
On the ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by 181 vessels since last year corresponding to a marginal growth of just below 2%. This moderate fleet increase versus four percent global growth has no doubt been a major driver of the recovery. Looking forward, there has been some order replenishment and in fact the orderbook is today bigger than what it was a year ago; about half of the new orders are Kamsarmaxes, generating some concerns on over ordering and affecting an already fragile market. On the other hand we can easily argue that the environmental regulations that are coming into force over the next couple of years, will call on owners to make substantial investments in their assets and we don't expect them to upgrade their older vessels. Current orderbook – not including slippage/cancellations – stands at 8.5% of the world fleet and with 9% of the fleet being over 20 years old you have a good release valve to balance the new deliveries.
On the other side of the equation there still is a growing demand for seaborne transportation. The population continues to expand, emerging countries continue to absorb shipping goods and raw materials, so - still being the most fuel efficient and environment friendly form of commercial transport – seaborne trade will continue to grow; this is a fact. On the other hand, shipping is inherently correlated to the world economy, so the trade contraction from trade wars, may translate into reduction in demand for shipping, and although China is no longer growing at eight or ten percent annually, it's still leading the demand for tonne miles. To put it simply, the demand is under short term shakedown from president Trump. Up until today, the markets have been on wait-and-see mode whether the threats are valid and how far the confrontation will go. The US president's tariffs have been met with Chinese retaliation and Beijing administration confident that they can cope with full scale trade war.
So, although we don't see a ceiling, since there seem to be strong fundamentals for the market to improve further, we are now on a kind of a plateau whereby there are economic as well as political reasons that are preventing markets to improve further. For shipping we believe that this will work in its favour in the longer term as, although it's a good entry point for investments and the upside is there, it makes the ship-owners more careful, patient and they avoid overreactions. This situation should also remind everybody that shipping is an infinite game and the objective of the players – both know and unknown - is to perpetuate the game.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 04 September 18
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN SECTOR REMAINED ACTIVE WITH RATES STILL FIRM ESPECIALLY IN SE ASIA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A turnaround in fortunes for the big ships, with a few slower days in the market. A build-up of tonnage and a lack of Brazil cargoes r ...
Thursday, 30 August 18
SUPRAMAX: CIS COAL TO FAR EAST WENT AT MID TENS AND TO SE ASIA AT CA USD 8000 - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
There was a slow start this week with holiday in UK on Monday. The index has been slowly coming off since then; The C5 route has seen ...
Wednesday, 29 August 18
MID-YEAR FY19 POWER OUTLOOK: IMPORTED COAL REQUIREMENT TO INCREASE DURING REMAINING FY19: IND-RA
India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) has maintained a stable-to-negative outlook on the Indian power sector for the remaining FY19, despite a rise i ...
Wednesday, 29 August 18
IMPACT ON CHARTERPARTIES - TIME TO ACT NOW : NORTH P&I CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The challenges introduced by the global sulphur cap are not exclusively technical. The new limits are likely to impact co ...
Tuesday, 28 August 18
COURT CONCLUDES DELIVERY MADE IN ACCORDANCE WITH TERMS OF LOIS - INCE&CO
Glencore Agriculture BV v Navig8 Chemicals Pool Inc (Songa Winds) [2018] EWCA 1901 (Civ)
In this case, the Commercial Court fo ...
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Planning Commission, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
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