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Wednesday, 12 September 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 A recovery in the shipping market since last year has buoyed optimism amongst the people in the industry. Yet if you are to ask most ship-owners if they are happy with the market, you will get a reply “mmmh... not really...”. The market hike seems to have hit a ceiling the past months and whilst the ship earnings have doubled or tripled compared to two years ago, they still seem to be just a touch (?) away from their break-even. Also, opposite to the common belief, during the past few months instead of further improvement we have seen a lot of volatility and a resistance to get to higher levels.
On the ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by 181 vessels since last year corresponding to a marginal growth of just below 2%. This moderate fleet increase versus four percent global growth has no doubt been a major driver of the recovery. Looking forward, there has been some order replenishment and in fact the orderbook is today bigger than what it was a year ago; about half of the new orders are Kamsarmaxes, generating some concerns on over ordering and affecting an already fragile market. On the other hand we can easily argue that the environmental regulations that are coming into force over the next couple of years, will call on owners to make substantial investments in their assets and we don't expect them to upgrade their older vessels. Current orderbook – not including slippage/cancellations – stands at 8.5% of the world fleet and with 9% of the fleet being over 20 years old you have a good release valve to balance the new deliveries.
On the other side of the equation there still is a growing demand for seaborne transportation. The population continues to expand, emerging countries continue to absorb shipping goods and raw materials, so - still being the most fuel efficient and environment friendly form of commercial transport – seaborne trade will continue to grow; this is a fact. On the other hand, shipping is inherently correlated to the world economy, so the trade contraction from trade wars, may translate into reduction in demand for shipping, and although China is no longer growing at eight or ten percent annually, it's still leading the demand for tonne miles. To put it simply, the demand is under short term shakedown from president Trump. Up until today, the markets have been on wait-and-see mode whether the threats are valid and how far the confrontation will go. The US president's tariffs have been met with Chinese retaliation and Beijing administration confident that they can cope with full scale trade war.
So, although we don't see a ceiling, since there seem to be strong fundamentals for the market to improve further, we are now on a kind of a plateau whereby there are economic as well as political reasons that are preventing markets to improve further. For shipping we believe that this will work in its favour in the longer term as, although it's a good entry point for investments and the upside is there, it makes the ship-owners more careful, patient and they avoid overreactions. This situation should also remind everybody that shipping is an infinite game and the objective of the players – both know and unknown - is to perpetuate the game.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 13 September 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO-INDIA COAL RUN WAS FIXED CLOSE TO $16000 ON ULTRA - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Rates took a further drop in the beginning of the week, to later find a floor around mid-week reaching mid USD 7 level for c5 and just ...
Thursday, 13 September 18
SHIPPING IS INCREASINGLY CAUGHT IN THE TRADE WAR LINE OF CROSSFIRE - PETER SAND
Once again, the already long list of tariffed goods has been made even longer. Many more commodities were hit on 23 August, but September is likely ...
Wednesday, 12 September 18
THE INTERRELATIONSHIP BETWEEN LETTERS OF INDEMNITY AND CHARTERPARTY "TIME BAR" PROVISIONS - STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Introduction
A recent English Court of Appeal decision provides important guidance on the applicability of charterpar ...
Wednesday, 12 September 18
IS LNG POISED FOR A NEW GROWTH CYCLE? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Gas needs to work for its long-term sustainability. But the mood music is upbeat. Just 18 months ago the LNG market was depressed, anticipating an ...
Wednesday, 12 September 18
U.S. TOTAL COAL EXPORTS TO BE 107 MMST IN 2018 AND 101 MMST IN 2019 - EIA
EIA forecasts U.S. coal production will decline by 1% to 768 million short tons (MMst) in 2018, despite a 10% (10 MMst) increase in coal exports.
...
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- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Coal Association
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
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