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Wednesday, 12 September 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 A recovery in the shipping market since last year has buoyed optimism amongst the people in the industry. Yet if you are to ask most ship-owners if they are happy with the market, you will get a reply “mmmh... not really...”. The market hike seems to have hit a ceiling the past months and whilst the ship earnings have doubled or tripled compared to two years ago, they still seem to be just a touch (?) away from their break-even. Also, opposite to the common belief, during the past few months instead of further improvement we have seen a lot of volatility and a resistance to get to higher levels.
On the ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by 181 vessels since last year corresponding to a marginal growth of just below 2%. This moderate fleet increase versus four percent global growth has no doubt been a major driver of the recovery. Looking forward, there has been some order replenishment and in fact the orderbook is today bigger than what it was a year ago; about half of the new orders are Kamsarmaxes, generating some concerns on over ordering and affecting an already fragile market. On the other hand we can easily argue that the environmental regulations that are coming into force over the next couple of years, will call on owners to make substantial investments in their assets and we don't expect them to upgrade their older vessels. Current orderbook – not including slippage/cancellations – stands at 8.5% of the world fleet and with 9% of the fleet being over 20 years old you have a good release valve to balance the new deliveries.
On the other side of the equation there still is a growing demand for seaborne transportation. The population continues to expand, emerging countries continue to absorb shipping goods and raw materials, so - still being the most fuel efficient and environment friendly form of commercial transport – seaborne trade will continue to grow; this is a fact. On the other hand, shipping is inherently correlated to the world economy, so the trade contraction from trade wars, may translate into reduction in demand for shipping, and although China is no longer growing at eight or ten percent annually, it's still leading the demand for tonne miles. To put it simply, the demand is under short term shakedown from president Trump. Up until today, the markets have been on wait-and-see mode whether the threats are valid and how far the confrontation will go. The US president's tariffs have been met with Chinese retaliation and Beijing administration confident that they can cope with full scale trade war.
So, although we don't see a ceiling, since there seem to be strong fundamentals for the market to improve further, we are now on a kind of a plateau whereby there are economic as well as political reasons that are preventing markets to improve further. For shipping we believe that this will work in its favour in the longer term as, although it's a good entry point for investments and the upside is there, it makes the ship-owners more careful, patient and they avoid overreactions. This situation should also remind everybody that shipping is an infinite game and the objective of the players – both know and unknown - is to perpetuate the game.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 17 September 18
GLENCORE RETURNS TO JAPAN COAL TALKS SCUPPERED BY HIGH PRICES - BLOOMBERG
Mining giant Glencore Plc and Japanese utilities have resumed thermal coal supply negotiations, restarting talks that fell apart earlier this year ...
Monday, 17 September 18
SMALL PERCENTAGE OF THE WORLD FLEET WILL FIT SCRUBBERS - FORECASTS : METTE KRONHOLM FRAENDE
In recent months, there have been numerous reports of a strong pick-up in demand for scrubbers. On 1 January 2020, however, the number of ships fit ...
Saturday, 15 September 18
POWERING SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW EMISSION COAL TECHNOLOGIES - WCA
In its 5th Strategic Energy Plan this year (2018), the Japanese Cabinet recognised coal as an important energy resource, necessary for the country& ...
Friday, 14 September 18
10 YEARS ON FROM LEHMAN, HOW IS SHIPPING'S "HANGOVER"? - CLARKSONS RESEARCH
On 15th September 2008, the collapse of Lehman Brothers crystallised the financial crisis and the onset the worst economic downturn for a century. ...
Thursday, 13 September 18
OPEC SEES SLOWER 2019 OIL DEMAND GROWTH, WARNS ON ECONOMY
Crude Oil Price Movements
In August, the OPEC Reference Basket declined by $1.01 m-o-m, settling at $72.26/b. Crude oil futures were also down ...
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Showing 1616 to 1620 news of total 6871 |
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
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