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Wednesday, 12 September 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 A recovery in the shipping market since last year has buoyed optimism amongst the people in the industry. Yet if you are to ask most ship-owners if they are happy with the market, you will get a reply “mmmh... not really...”. The market hike seems to have hit a ceiling the past months and whilst the ship earnings have doubled or tripled compared to two years ago, they still seem to be just a touch (?) away from their break-even. Also, opposite to the common belief, during the past few months instead of further improvement we have seen a lot of volatility and a resistance to get to higher levels.
On the ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by 181 vessels since last year corresponding to a marginal growth of just below 2%. This moderate fleet increase versus four percent global growth has no doubt been a major driver of the recovery. Looking forward, there has been some order replenishment and in fact the orderbook is today bigger than what it was a year ago; about half of the new orders are Kamsarmaxes, generating some concerns on over ordering and affecting an already fragile market. On the other hand we can easily argue that the environmental regulations that are coming into force over the next couple of years, will call on owners to make substantial investments in their assets and we don't expect them to upgrade their older vessels. Current orderbook – not including slippage/cancellations – stands at 8.5% of the world fleet and with 9% of the fleet being over 20 years old you have a good release valve to balance the new deliveries.
On the other side of the equation there still is a growing demand for seaborne transportation. The population continues to expand, emerging countries continue to absorb shipping goods and raw materials, so - still being the most fuel efficient and environment friendly form of commercial transport – seaborne trade will continue to grow; this is a fact. On the other hand, shipping is inherently correlated to the world economy, so the trade contraction from trade wars, may translate into reduction in demand for shipping, and although China is no longer growing at eight or ten percent annually, it's still leading the demand for tonne miles. To put it simply, the demand is under short term shakedown from president Trump. Up until today, the markets have been on wait-and-see mode whether the threats are valid and how far the confrontation will go. The US president's tariffs have been met with Chinese retaliation and Beijing administration confident that they can cope with full scale trade war.
So, although we don't see a ceiling, since there seem to be strong fundamentals for the market to improve further, we are now on a kind of a plateau whereby there are economic as well as political reasons that are preventing markets to improve further. For shipping we believe that this will work in its favour in the longer term as, although it's a good entry point for investments and the upside is there, it makes the ship-owners more careful, patient and they avoid overreactions. This situation should also remind everybody that shipping is an infinite game and the objective of the players – both know and unknown - is to perpetuate the game.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 17 September 18
GLENCORE RETURNS TO JAPAN COAL TALKS SCUPPERED BY HIGH PRICES - BLOOMBERG
Mining giant Glencore Plc and Japanese utilities have resumed thermal coal supply negotiations, restarting talks that fell apart earlier this year ...
Monday, 17 September 18
SMALL PERCENTAGE OF THE WORLD FLEET WILL FIT SCRUBBERS - FORECASTS : METTE KRONHOLM FRAENDE
In recent months, there have been numerous reports of a strong pick-up in demand for scrubbers. On 1 January 2020, however, the number of ships fit ...
Saturday, 15 September 18
POWERING SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW EMISSION COAL TECHNOLOGIES - WCA
In its 5th Strategic Energy Plan this year (2018), the Japanese Cabinet recognised coal as an important energy resource, necessary for the country& ...
Friday, 14 September 18
10 YEARS ON FROM LEHMAN, HOW IS SHIPPING'S "HANGOVER"? - CLARKSONS RESEARCH
On 15th September 2008, the collapse of Lehman Brothers crystallised the financial crisis and the onset the worst economic downturn for a century. ...
Thursday, 13 September 18
OPEC SEES SLOWER 2019 OIL DEMAND GROWTH, WARNS ON ECONOMY
Crude Oil Price Movements
In August, the OPEC Reference Basket declined by $1.01 m-o-m, settling at $72.26/b. Crude oil futures were also down ...
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Showing 1616 to 1620 news of total 6871 |
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- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The University of Queensland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
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