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Wednesday, 12 September 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 A recovery in the shipping market since last year has buoyed optimism amongst the people in the industry. Yet if you are to ask most ship-owners if they are happy with the market, you will get a reply “mmmh... not really...”. The market hike seems to have hit a ceiling the past months and whilst the ship earnings have doubled or tripled compared to two years ago, they still seem to be just a touch (?) away from their break-even. Also, opposite to the common belief, during the past few months instead of further improvement we have seen a lot of volatility and a resistance to get to higher levels.
On the ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by 181 vessels since last year corresponding to a marginal growth of just below 2%. This moderate fleet increase versus four percent global growth has no doubt been a major driver of the recovery. Looking forward, there has been some order replenishment and in fact the orderbook is today bigger than what it was a year ago; about half of the new orders are Kamsarmaxes, generating some concerns on over ordering and affecting an already fragile market. On the other hand we can easily argue that the environmental regulations that are coming into force over the next couple of years, will call on owners to make substantial investments in their assets and we don't expect them to upgrade their older vessels. Current orderbook – not including slippage/cancellations – stands at 8.5% of the world fleet and with 9% of the fleet being over 20 years old you have a good release valve to balance the new deliveries.
On the other side of the equation there still is a growing demand for seaborne transportation. The population continues to expand, emerging countries continue to absorb shipping goods and raw materials, so - still being the most fuel efficient and environment friendly form of commercial transport – seaborne trade will continue to grow; this is a fact. On the other hand, shipping is inherently correlated to the world economy, so the trade contraction from trade wars, may translate into reduction in demand for shipping, and although China is no longer growing at eight or ten percent annually, it's still leading the demand for tonne miles. To put it simply, the demand is under short term shakedown from president Trump. Up until today, the markets have been on wait-and-see mode whether the threats are valid and how far the confrontation will go. The US president's tariffs have been met with Chinese retaliation and Beijing administration confident that they can cope with full scale trade war.
So, although we don't see a ceiling, since there seem to be strong fundamentals for the market to improve further, we are now on a kind of a plateau whereby there are economic as well as political reasons that are preventing markets to improve further. For shipping we believe that this will work in its favour in the longer term as, although it's a good entry point for investments and the upside is there, it makes the ship-owners more careful, patient and they avoid overreactions. This situation should also remind everybody that shipping is an infinite game and the objective of the players – both know and unknown - is to perpetuate the game.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 01 October 18
A NO-DEAL BREXIT WILL UNDOUBTEDLY HAVE CONSEQUENCES FOR IMPORTERS AND EXPORTERS - KATE JONES, THE BALTIC BRIEFING
If you live in the UK, you might be finding it difficult to get away from the Brexit debate. “Hard Brexit”, “soft Brexit”, ...
Friday, 28 September 18
INDONESIA 2018 COAL OUTPUT TARGET NOW AROUND 507 MLN T - ENERGY MINISTRY : REUTERS
Indonesia has increased its 2018 coal production target to around 507 million tonnes from a previous target of 485 million tonnes, the Energy Minis ...
Friday, 28 September 18
FITCH RATINGS: METALLURGICAL COAL MINERS MAY CURB COSTS AS PRICES SLIP
Strong cost inflation in the global metallurgical coal sector suggests that miners may focus on cost controls as prices decline from their current ...
Wednesday, 26 September 18
IS YOUR CHARTER PARTY READY FOR 2020? - METTE KRONHOLM FRAENDE, BIMCO
As the deadline for the IMO’s global low-sulphur fuel requirements fast approaches, it is necessary to carefully check the bunker clauses in ...
Wednesday, 26 September 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE ILIOPOULOS
Despite the fact that the dry bulk SnP market saw an admittedly busy summer season, there is a noticeable slowdown in activity during the past thre ...
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- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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