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Wednesday, 12 September 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 A recovery in the shipping market since last year has buoyed optimism amongst the people in the industry. Yet if you are to ask most ship-owners if they are happy with the market, you will get a reply “mmmh... not really...”. The market hike seems to have hit a ceiling the past months and whilst the ship earnings have doubled or tripled compared to two years ago, they still seem to be just a touch (?) away from their break-even. Also, opposite to the common belief, during the past few months instead of further improvement we have seen a lot of volatility and a resistance to get to higher levels.
On the ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by 181 vessels since last year corresponding to a marginal growth of just below 2%. This moderate fleet increase versus four percent global growth has no doubt been a major driver of the recovery. Looking forward, there has been some order replenishment and in fact the orderbook is today bigger than what it was a year ago; about half of the new orders are Kamsarmaxes, generating some concerns on over ordering and affecting an already fragile market. On the other hand we can easily argue that the environmental regulations that are coming into force over the next couple of years, will call on owners to make substantial investments in their assets and we don't expect them to upgrade their older vessels. Current orderbook – not including slippage/cancellations – stands at 8.5% of the world fleet and with 9% of the fleet being over 20 years old you have a good release valve to balance the new deliveries.
On the other side of the equation there still is a growing demand for seaborne transportation. The population continues to expand, emerging countries continue to absorb shipping goods and raw materials, so - still being the most fuel efficient and environment friendly form of commercial transport – seaborne trade will continue to grow; this is a fact. On the other hand, shipping is inherently correlated to the world economy, so the trade contraction from trade wars, may translate into reduction in demand for shipping, and although China is no longer growing at eight or ten percent annually, it's still leading the demand for tonne miles. To put it simply, the demand is under short term shakedown from president Trump. Up until today, the markets have been on wait-and-see mode whether the threats are valid and how far the confrontation will go. The US president's tariffs have been met with Chinese retaliation and Beijing administration confident that they can cope with full scale trade war.
So, although we don't see a ceiling, since there seem to be strong fundamentals for the market to improve further, we are now on a kind of a plateau whereby there are economic as well as political reasons that are preventing markets to improve further. For shipping we believe that this will work in its favour in the longer term as, although it's a good entry point for investments and the upside is there, it makes the ship-owners more careful, patient and they avoid overreactions. This situation should also remind everybody that shipping is an infinite game and the objective of the players – both know and unknown - is to perpetuate the game.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 01 October 18
A NO-DEAL BREXIT WILL UNDOUBTEDLY HAVE CONSEQUENCES FOR IMPORTERS AND EXPORTERS - KATE JONES, THE BALTIC BRIEFING
If you live in the UK, you might be finding it difficult to get away from the Brexit debate. “Hard Brexit”, “soft Brexit”, ...
Friday, 28 September 18
INDONESIA 2018 COAL OUTPUT TARGET NOW AROUND 507 MLN T - ENERGY MINISTRY : REUTERS
Indonesia has increased its 2018 coal production target to around 507 million tonnes from a previous target of 485 million tonnes, the Energy Minis ...
Friday, 28 September 18
FITCH RATINGS: METALLURGICAL COAL MINERS MAY CURB COSTS AS PRICES SLIP
Strong cost inflation in the global metallurgical coal sector suggests that miners may focus on cost controls as prices decline from their current ...
Wednesday, 26 September 18
IS YOUR CHARTER PARTY READY FOR 2020? - METTE KRONHOLM FRAENDE, BIMCO
As the deadline for the IMO’s global low-sulphur fuel requirements fast approaches, it is necessary to carefully check the bunker clauses in ...
Wednesday, 26 September 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE ILIOPOULOS
Despite the fact that the dry bulk SnP market saw an admittedly busy summer season, there is a noticeable slowdown in activity during the past thre ...
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- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The University of Queensland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
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