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Wednesday, 12 September 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 A recovery in the shipping market since last year has buoyed optimism amongst the people in the industry. Yet if you are to ask most ship-owners if they are happy with the market, you will get a reply “mmmh... not really...”. The market hike seems to have hit a ceiling the past months and whilst the ship earnings have doubled or tripled compared to two years ago, they still seem to be just a touch (?) away from their break-even. Also, opposite to the common belief, during the past few months instead of further improvement we have seen a lot of volatility and a resistance to get to higher levels.
On the ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by 181 vessels since last year corresponding to a marginal growth of just below 2%. This moderate fleet increase versus four percent global growth has no doubt been a major driver of the recovery. Looking forward, there has been some order replenishment and in fact the orderbook is today bigger than what it was a year ago; about half of the new orders are Kamsarmaxes, generating some concerns on over ordering and affecting an already fragile market. On the other hand we can easily argue that the environmental regulations that are coming into force over the next couple of years, will call on owners to make substantial investments in their assets and we don't expect them to upgrade their older vessels. Current orderbook – not including slippage/cancellations – stands at 8.5% of the world fleet and with 9% of the fleet being over 20 years old you have a good release valve to balance the new deliveries.
On the other side of the equation there still is a growing demand for seaborne transportation. The population continues to expand, emerging countries continue to absorb shipping goods and raw materials, so - still being the most fuel efficient and environment friendly form of commercial transport – seaborne trade will continue to grow; this is a fact. On the other hand, shipping is inherently correlated to the world economy, so the trade contraction from trade wars, may translate into reduction in demand for shipping, and although China is no longer growing at eight or ten percent annually, it's still leading the demand for tonne miles. To put it simply, the demand is under short term shakedown from president Trump. Up until today, the markets have been on wait-and-see mode whether the threats are valid and how far the confrontation will go. The US president's tariffs have been met with Chinese retaliation and Beijing administration confident that they can cope with full scale trade war.
So, although we don't see a ceiling, since there seem to be strong fundamentals for the market to improve further, we are now on a kind of a plateau whereby there are economic as well as political reasons that are preventing markets to improve further. For shipping we believe that this will work in its favour in the longer term as, although it's a good entry point for investments and the upside is there, it makes the ship-owners more careful, patient and they avoid overreactions. This situation should also remind everybody that shipping is an infinite game and the objective of the players – both know and unknown - is to perpetuate the game.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 25 September 18
THE INCONVENIENT TRUTH OF RISING COAL PRICES - FORBES
Coal prices are not supposed to be rising as governments tighten environmental controls but that’s precisely what is happening at the premium ...
Saturday, 22 September 18
SHIPOWNERS URGENTLY NEED A FUEL-MANAGEMENT PLAN - METTE KRONHOLM FRAENDE, BIMCO
With the majority of ship operators expected to choose low-sulphur fuel over scrubbers to comply with the new IMO sulphur cap regulation, all eyes ...
Saturday, 22 September 18
GERMANY'S MOVE TO SCRAP COAL WILL COST TAXPAYERS - BRIAN PARKIN | WILLIAM WILKES
Chancellor Angela Merkel’s plan to close Germany’s remaining coal-fired power stations will drive up subsidies for regions that mine th ...
Saturday, 22 September 18
FITCH RATINGS: WORLD GROWTH FORECAST CUT ON US-CHINA TRADE BATTLE
Protectionist US trade policies have now reached the point where they are materially affecting what remains a strong global growth outlook, with th ...
Tuesday, 18 September 18
COOLING OUTLOOK FOR COAL - KATE JONES
At a time of increasing focus on the renewables market as the world seeks to clean up its act to prevent climate change, what is the outlook like f ...
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Showing 1611 to 1615 news of total 6871 |
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- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Coal Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
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