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Wednesday, 12 September 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 A recovery in the shipping market since last year has buoyed optimism amongst the people in the industry. Yet if you are to ask most ship-owners if they are happy with the market, you will get a reply “mmmh... not really...”. The market hike seems to have hit a ceiling the past months and whilst the ship earnings have doubled or tripled compared to two years ago, they still seem to be just a touch (?) away from their break-even. Also, opposite to the common belief, during the past few months instead of further improvement we have seen a lot of volatility and a resistance to get to higher levels.
On the ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by 181 vessels since last year corresponding to a marginal growth of just below 2%. This moderate fleet increase versus four percent global growth has no doubt been a major driver of the recovery. Looking forward, there has been some order replenishment and in fact the orderbook is today bigger than what it was a year ago; about half of the new orders are Kamsarmaxes, generating some concerns on over ordering and affecting an already fragile market. On the other hand we can easily argue that the environmental regulations that are coming into force over the next couple of years, will call on owners to make substantial investments in their assets and we don't expect them to upgrade their older vessels. Current orderbook – not including slippage/cancellations – stands at 8.5% of the world fleet and with 9% of the fleet being over 20 years old you have a good release valve to balance the new deliveries.
On the other side of the equation there still is a growing demand for seaborne transportation. The population continues to expand, emerging countries continue to absorb shipping goods and raw materials, so - still being the most fuel efficient and environment friendly form of commercial transport – seaborne trade will continue to grow; this is a fact. On the other hand, shipping is inherently correlated to the world economy, so the trade contraction from trade wars, may translate into reduction in demand for shipping, and although China is no longer growing at eight or ten percent annually, it's still leading the demand for tonne miles. To put it simply, the demand is under short term shakedown from president Trump. Up until today, the markets have been on wait-and-see mode whether the threats are valid and how far the confrontation will go. The US president's tariffs have been met with Chinese retaliation and Beijing administration confident that they can cope with full scale trade war.
So, although we don't see a ceiling, since there seem to be strong fundamentals for the market to improve further, we are now on a kind of a plateau whereby there are economic as well as political reasons that are preventing markets to improve further. For shipping we believe that this will work in its favour in the longer term as, although it's a good entry point for investments and the upside is there, it makes the ship-owners more careful, patient and they avoid overreactions. This situation should also remind everybody that shipping is an infinite game and the objective of the players – both know and unknown - is to perpetuate the game.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 03 October 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
The bunker fuel supply and availability landscape is close to its transformation with the enforcement of the IMO’s global 0.5% fuel Sulphur c ...
Tuesday, 02 October 18
PANAMAX: A FURTHER RISE ACROSS ALL MAIN ROUTES THIS WEEK - ALLIED
Capesize
Finally an upward recovery was in sight in the spot market the past few days, after the prolonged negative pressure noted the weeks pr ...
Tuesday, 02 October 18
THE PRICE OF OIL CONTINUES ITS CLIMB AMIDST A SERIES OF CONCERNS REGARDING SUPPLY CONSTRAINTS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
It has been a busy week for oil traders as the price of oil continues its climb amidst a series of concerns regarding supply constraints.
...
Tuesday, 02 October 18
INDONESIA GETS READY TO MEET INCREASED COAL DEMAND FROM CHINA, FREIGHT TO RESPOND - MIKAL BOE
Indonesian coal suppliers have increased their domestic coal production target by 4.5 percent from a previous 485 million tonnes to a massive 507 m ...
Monday, 01 October 18
SUPRAMAX: A 56,000 DWT FIXED DELIVERY FOR A SURABAYA TRIP WITH REDELIVERY TO WEST COAST INDIA AT $13,500 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A stop-start market for the big ships with many expectations and few fulfilled. Holidays curtailed trading early in the week, but the ...
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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