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Wednesday, 12 September 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 A recovery in the shipping market since last year has buoyed optimism amongst the people in the industry. Yet if you are to ask most ship-owners if they are happy with the market, you will get a reply “mmmh... not really...”. The market hike seems to have hit a ceiling the past months and whilst the ship earnings have doubled or tripled compared to two years ago, they still seem to be just a touch (?) away from their break-even. Also, opposite to the common belief, during the past few months instead of further improvement we have seen a lot of volatility and a resistance to get to higher levels.
On the ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by 181 vessels since last year corresponding to a marginal growth of just below 2%. This moderate fleet increase versus four percent global growth has no doubt been a major driver of the recovery. Looking forward, there has been some order replenishment and in fact the orderbook is today bigger than what it was a year ago; about half of the new orders are Kamsarmaxes, generating some concerns on over ordering and affecting an already fragile market. On the other hand we can easily argue that the environmental regulations that are coming into force over the next couple of years, will call on owners to make substantial investments in their assets and we don't expect them to upgrade their older vessels. Current orderbook – not including slippage/cancellations – stands at 8.5% of the world fleet and with 9% of the fleet being over 20 years old you have a good release valve to balance the new deliveries.
On the other side of the equation there still is a growing demand for seaborne transportation. The population continues to expand, emerging countries continue to absorb shipping goods and raw materials, so - still being the most fuel efficient and environment friendly form of commercial transport – seaborne trade will continue to grow; this is a fact. On the other hand, shipping is inherently correlated to the world economy, so the trade contraction from trade wars, may translate into reduction in demand for shipping, and although China is no longer growing at eight or ten percent annually, it's still leading the demand for tonne miles. To put it simply, the demand is under short term shakedown from president Trump. Up until today, the markets have been on wait-and-see mode whether the threats are valid and how far the confrontation will go. The US president's tariffs have been met with Chinese retaliation and Beijing administration confident that they can cope with full scale trade war.
So, although we don't see a ceiling, since there seem to be strong fundamentals for the market to improve further, we are now on a kind of a plateau whereby there are economic as well as political reasons that are preventing markets to improve further. For shipping we believe that this will work in its favour in the longer term as, although it's a good entry point for investments and the upside is there, it makes the ship-owners more careful, patient and they avoid overreactions. This situation should also remind everybody that shipping is an infinite game and the objective of the players – both know and unknown - is to perpetuate the game.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 12 September 18
MARINE BUNKERS: THE END OF THE WORLD AS WE KNOW IT - IBIA
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The world of bunkers is heading for rapid and fundamental changes and not just because of the 0.50% sulphur cap in 2020. ...
Monday, 10 September 18
HANDYSIZE: PERIOD ACTIVITY REMAINED LIMITED WITH A 37,000DWT REPORTEDLY FIXED FOR FOUR TO SIX MONTHS AT $10,500, OPEN IN MALAYSIA IN MID-SEPTEMBER - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Rates came under pressure for the big ships last week, despite paper values holding at reasonable levels as these trades continued to ...
Thursday, 06 September 18
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE FALLS FOR FIRST TIME IN 3 MONTHS
COALspot.com: The benchmark price of Indonesian thermal coal falls for first time in three months.
According to the latest min ...
Thursday, 06 September 18
SUPRAMAX: SE ASIA-INDO ROUNDS WITH COAL HAVE BEEN CONCLUDED IN THE $13000S RANGE - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
The big ships experiencing a bump in the road towards what is commonly expected to be by far the best period of this year. Average dai ...
Wednesday, 05 September 18
ASIAN DEMAND COULD CREATE DEFICIT IN GLOBAL LNG MARKET - FITCH RATINGS
Growing gas demand from Asia, particularly from China, could swing the liquefied natural gas (LNG) market into a deficit by 2022-2025, Fitch Rating ...
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- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- White Energy Company Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
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