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Wednesday, 12 September 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 A recovery in the shipping market since last year has buoyed optimism amongst the people in the industry. Yet if you are to ask most ship-owners if they are happy with the market, you will get a reply “mmmh... not really...”. The market hike seems to have hit a ceiling the past months and whilst the ship earnings have doubled or tripled compared to two years ago, they still seem to be just a touch (?) away from their break-even. Also, opposite to the common belief, during the past few months instead of further improvement we have seen a lot of volatility and a resistance to get to higher levels.
On the ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by 181 vessels since last year corresponding to a marginal growth of just below 2%. This moderate fleet increase versus four percent global growth has no doubt been a major driver of the recovery. Looking forward, there has been some order replenishment and in fact the orderbook is today bigger than what it was a year ago; about half of the new orders are Kamsarmaxes, generating some concerns on over ordering and affecting an already fragile market. On the other hand we can easily argue that the environmental regulations that are coming into force over the next couple of years, will call on owners to make substantial investments in their assets and we don't expect them to upgrade their older vessels. Current orderbook – not including slippage/cancellations – stands at 8.5% of the world fleet and with 9% of the fleet being over 20 years old you have a good release valve to balance the new deliveries.
On the other side of the equation there still is a growing demand for seaborne transportation. The population continues to expand, emerging countries continue to absorb shipping goods and raw materials, so - still being the most fuel efficient and environment friendly form of commercial transport – seaborne trade will continue to grow; this is a fact. On the other hand, shipping is inherently correlated to the world economy, so the trade contraction from trade wars, may translate into reduction in demand for shipping, and although China is no longer growing at eight or ten percent annually, it's still leading the demand for tonne miles. To put it simply, the demand is under short term shakedown from president Trump. Up until today, the markets have been on wait-and-see mode whether the threats are valid and how far the confrontation will go. The US president's tariffs have been met with Chinese retaliation and Beijing administration confident that they can cope with full scale trade war.
So, although we don't see a ceiling, since there seem to be strong fundamentals for the market to improve further, we are now on a kind of a plateau whereby there are economic as well as political reasons that are preventing markets to improve further. For shipping we believe that this will work in its favour in the longer term as, although it's a good entry point for investments and the upside is there, it makes the ship-owners more careful, patient and they avoid overreactions. This situation should also remind everybody that shipping is an infinite game and the objective of the players – both know and unknown - is to perpetuate the game.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 28 August 18
SUPRAMAX: A COAL TRIP VIA INDONESIA PAID $13,500 ON A 56,000DWT TO WC INDIA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Singapore holiday mid-week disrupted trading and unsettled the market, with owners losing some resilience. The market took on a la ...
Tuesday, 28 August 18
SHIPPING MARKET UPDATE - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
As we edge close to the start of the Autumn Season, a period within the year that is usually characterized as the pivot point from the final quarte ...
Friday, 24 August 18
KOREAN RESTRICTIONS ON COAL SULPHUR IMPACTING HUNTER EXPORTS - THE HERALD
WARNINGS that Korean restrictions on sulphur levels in coal could hurt the Hunter industry appear to have been accurate, according to a report in t ...
Thursday, 23 August 18
RUSSIA'S MECHEL PRODUCED 9.69 MMT OF RUN-OF-MINE COAL IN 1H'2018
Mechel PAO, one of the leading Russian mining and metals companies, announces 1H2018 operational results.
Mechel PAO’s Chief E ...
Thursday, 23 August 18
SUPRAMAX: SOME FRESH COAL CARGOES APPEARED IN SE ASIA, GIVING A BIT PRESSURE ON RATES FOR END AUGUST SHIPMENTS - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Slightly softer but generally very healthy for the big ships, with limited supply of early tonnage and positive Brazilian ore export v ...
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Showing 1636 to 1640 news of total 6871 |
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- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The University of Queensland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
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