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Wednesday, 12 September 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 A recovery in the shipping market since last year has buoyed optimism amongst the people in the industry. Yet if you are to ask most ship-owners if they are happy with the market, you will get a reply “mmmh... not really...”. The market hike seems to have hit a ceiling the past months and whilst the ship earnings have doubled or tripled compared to two years ago, they still seem to be just a touch (?) away from their break-even. Also, opposite to the common belief, during the past few months instead of further improvement we have seen a lot of volatility and a resistance to get to higher levels.
On the ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by 181 vessels since last year corresponding to a marginal growth of just below 2%. This moderate fleet increase versus four percent global growth has no doubt been a major driver of the recovery. Looking forward, there has been some order replenishment and in fact the orderbook is today bigger than what it was a year ago; about half of the new orders are Kamsarmaxes, generating some concerns on over ordering and affecting an already fragile market. On the other hand we can easily argue that the environmental regulations that are coming into force over the next couple of years, will call on owners to make substantial investments in their assets and we don't expect them to upgrade their older vessels. Current orderbook – not including slippage/cancellations – stands at 8.5% of the world fleet and with 9% of the fleet being over 20 years old you have a good release valve to balance the new deliveries.
On the other side of the equation there still is a growing demand for seaborne transportation. The population continues to expand, emerging countries continue to absorb shipping goods and raw materials, so - still being the most fuel efficient and environment friendly form of commercial transport – seaborne trade will continue to grow; this is a fact. On the other hand, shipping is inherently correlated to the world economy, so the trade contraction from trade wars, may translate into reduction in demand for shipping, and although China is no longer growing at eight or ten percent annually, it's still leading the demand for tonne miles. To put it simply, the demand is under short term shakedown from president Trump. Up until today, the markets have been on wait-and-see mode whether the threats are valid and how far the confrontation will go. The US president's tariffs have been met with Chinese retaliation and Beijing administration confident that they can cope with full scale trade war.
So, although we don't see a ceiling, since there seem to be strong fundamentals for the market to improve further, we are now on a kind of a plateau whereby there are economic as well as political reasons that are preventing markets to improve further. For shipping we believe that this will work in its favour in the longer term as, although it's a good entry point for investments and the upside is there, it makes the ship-owners more careful, patient and they avoid overreactions. This situation should also remind everybody that shipping is an infinite game and the objective of the players – both know and unknown - is to perpetuate the game.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 28 August 18
SUPRAMAX: A COAL TRIP VIA INDONESIA PAID $13,500 ON A 56,000DWT TO WC INDIA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Singapore holiday mid-week disrupted trading and unsettled the market, with owners losing some resilience. The market took on a la ...
Tuesday, 28 August 18
SHIPPING MARKET UPDATE - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
As we edge close to the start of the Autumn Season, a period within the year that is usually characterized as the pivot point from the final quarte ...
Friday, 24 August 18
KOREAN RESTRICTIONS ON COAL SULPHUR IMPACTING HUNTER EXPORTS - THE HERALD
WARNINGS that Korean restrictions on sulphur levels in coal could hurt the Hunter industry appear to have been accurate, according to a report in t ...
Thursday, 23 August 18
RUSSIA'S MECHEL PRODUCED 9.69 MMT OF RUN-OF-MINE COAL IN 1H'2018
Mechel PAO, one of the leading Russian mining and metals companies, announces 1H2018 operational results.
Mechel PAO’s Chief E ...
Thursday, 23 August 18
SUPRAMAX: SOME FRESH COAL CARGOES APPEARED IN SE ASIA, GIVING A BIT PRESSURE ON RATES FOR END AUGUST SHIPMENTS - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Slightly softer but generally very healthy for the big ships, with limited supply of early tonnage and positive Brazilian ore export v ...
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Showing 1636 to 1640 news of total 6871 |
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- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
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