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Wednesday, 12 September 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 A recovery in the shipping market since last year has buoyed optimism amongst the people in the industry. Yet if you are to ask most ship-owners if they are happy with the market, you will get a reply “mmmh... not really...”. The market hike seems to have hit a ceiling the past months and whilst the ship earnings have doubled or tripled compared to two years ago, they still seem to be just a touch (?) away from their break-even. Also, opposite to the common belief, during the past few months instead of further improvement we have seen a lot of volatility and a resistance to get to higher levels.
On the ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by 181 vessels since last year corresponding to a marginal growth of just below 2%. This moderate fleet increase versus four percent global growth has no doubt been a major driver of the recovery. Looking forward, there has been some order replenishment and in fact the orderbook is today bigger than what it was a year ago; about half of the new orders are Kamsarmaxes, generating some concerns on over ordering and affecting an already fragile market. On the other hand we can easily argue that the environmental regulations that are coming into force over the next couple of years, will call on owners to make substantial investments in their assets and we don't expect them to upgrade their older vessels. Current orderbook – not including slippage/cancellations – stands at 8.5% of the world fleet and with 9% of the fleet being over 20 years old you have a good release valve to balance the new deliveries.
On the other side of the equation there still is a growing demand for seaborne transportation. The population continues to expand, emerging countries continue to absorb shipping goods and raw materials, so - still being the most fuel efficient and environment friendly form of commercial transport – seaborne trade will continue to grow; this is a fact. On the other hand, shipping is inherently correlated to the world economy, so the trade contraction from trade wars, may translate into reduction in demand for shipping, and although China is no longer growing at eight or ten percent annually, it's still leading the demand for tonne miles. To put it simply, the demand is under short term shakedown from president Trump. Up until today, the markets have been on wait-and-see mode whether the threats are valid and how far the confrontation will go. The US president's tariffs have been met with Chinese retaliation and Beijing administration confident that they can cope with full scale trade war.
So, although we don't see a ceiling, since there seem to be strong fundamentals for the market to improve further, we are now on a kind of a plateau whereby there are economic as well as political reasons that are preventing markets to improve further. For shipping we believe that this will work in its favour in the longer term as, although it's a good entry point for investments and the upside is there, it makes the ship-owners more careful, patient and they avoid overreactions. This situation should also remind everybody that shipping is an infinite game and the objective of the players – both know and unknown - is to perpetuate the game.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 02 August 18
INDO / CHINA COAL RV'S IS PAYING AROUND USD 11,000 TO SUPRAS BSS DELIVERY SINGAPORE - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
The counter seasonally strong market during the summer months bodes well for the remainder of the year.
According ...
Wednesday, 01 August 18
JOKOWI CANCELS PLAN TO REVOKE COAL DMO - JP
President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo on Tuesday has canceled the government’s plan to revoke the domestic market obligation (DMO) for coa ...
Wednesday, 01 August 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
The dry bulk market activity over the past four weeks has remained stable when compared to the previous months. There are concerns with regards to ...
Tuesday, 31 July 18
INDONESIA UNLIKELY TO CHANGE COAL SUPPLY, PRICING RULES UNTIL 2019 - REUTERS
Indonesia is unlikely to change its rules on domestic coal supply and pricing until 2019, Coordinating Maritime Minister Luhut Pandjaitan said on M ...
Tuesday, 31 July 18
ENERGY MINISTRY REMAINS FIRM ON DMO POLICY FOR COAL - JP
The Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry has stressed that it will not cancel its policy on the domestic market obligation (DMO) for coal, as the ...
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
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