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Wednesday, 12 September 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 A recovery in the shipping market since last year has buoyed optimism amongst the people in the industry. Yet if you are to ask most ship-owners if they are happy with the market, you will get a reply “mmmh... not really...”. The market hike seems to have hit a ceiling the past months and whilst the ship earnings have doubled or tripled compared to two years ago, they still seem to be just a touch (?) away from their break-even. Also, opposite to the common belief, during the past few months instead of further improvement we have seen a lot of volatility and a resistance to get to higher levels.
On the ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by 181 vessels since last year corresponding to a marginal growth of just below 2%. This moderate fleet increase versus four percent global growth has no doubt been a major driver of the recovery. Looking forward, there has been some order replenishment and in fact the orderbook is today bigger than what it was a year ago; about half of the new orders are Kamsarmaxes, generating some concerns on over ordering and affecting an already fragile market. On the other hand we can easily argue that the environmental regulations that are coming into force over the next couple of years, will call on owners to make substantial investments in their assets and we don't expect them to upgrade their older vessels. Current orderbook – not including slippage/cancellations – stands at 8.5% of the world fleet and with 9% of the fleet being over 20 years old you have a good release valve to balance the new deliveries.
On the other side of the equation there still is a growing demand for seaborne transportation. The population continues to expand, emerging countries continue to absorb shipping goods and raw materials, so - still being the most fuel efficient and environment friendly form of commercial transport – seaborne trade will continue to grow; this is a fact. On the other hand, shipping is inherently correlated to the world economy, so the trade contraction from trade wars, may translate into reduction in demand for shipping, and although China is no longer growing at eight or ten percent annually, it's still leading the demand for tonne miles. To put it simply, the demand is under short term shakedown from president Trump. Up until today, the markets have been on wait-and-see mode whether the threats are valid and how far the confrontation will go. The US president's tariffs have been met with Chinese retaliation and Beijing administration confident that they can cope with full scale trade war.
So, although we don't see a ceiling, since there seem to be strong fundamentals for the market to improve further, we are now on a kind of a plateau whereby there are economic as well as political reasons that are preventing markets to improve further. For shipping we believe that this will work in its favour in the longer term as, although it's a good entry point for investments and the upside is there, it makes the ship-owners more careful, patient and they avoid overreactions. This situation should also remind everybody that shipping is an infinite game and the objective of the players – both know and unknown - is to perpetuate the game.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 24 July 18
TANKER MARKET : IN TERMS OF TRADE, THE STEPS THAT WERE SLOWLY BEING TAKEN BY OPEC AND RUSSIA - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
Despite the fact that the tanker market still seems to be in the midst of a perfect storm, there are still strong indicators that better sailing da ...
Thursday, 19 July 18
VINACOMIN PRODUCES OVER 20 MLN TONNES OF RAW COAL FROM YEAR'S START - VNA
The Vietnam National Coal and Mineral Industries Group (Vinacomin) has produced over 20 million tonnes of raw coal and 19.3 million of clean coal f ...
Wednesday, 18 July 18
INDONESIA TO AUCTION 16 MINING SITES - JP
Indonesia will soon auction 16 mining sites as no proposal submissions have been submitted by state-owned enterprises (BUMN) and regional administr ...
Wednesday, 18 July 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - VASILIS MOIRIS
The new regulations for Chinese flag restricting import of Tier I ships have dominated market sentiment during the past days as buyers have been tr ...
Thursday, 12 July 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO/CHINA COAL RV IS BEING FIXED AROUND USD 10500 BSS SINGAPORE - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Cape market continue to be extremely volatile says Fearnleys in its latst weekly report.
The further noted that, last week ended wi ...
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- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
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