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Wednesday, 12 September 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 A recovery in the shipping market since last year has buoyed optimism amongst the people in the industry. Yet if you are to ask most ship-owners if they are happy with the market, you will get a reply “mmmh... not really...”. The market hike seems to have hit a ceiling the past months and whilst the ship earnings have doubled or tripled compared to two years ago, they still seem to be just a touch (?) away from their break-even. Also, opposite to the common belief, during the past few months instead of further improvement we have seen a lot of volatility and a resistance to get to higher levels.
On the ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by 181 vessels since last year corresponding to a marginal growth of just below 2%. This moderate fleet increase versus four percent global growth has no doubt been a major driver of the recovery. Looking forward, there has been some order replenishment and in fact the orderbook is today bigger than what it was a year ago; about half of the new orders are Kamsarmaxes, generating some concerns on over ordering and affecting an already fragile market. On the other hand we can easily argue that the environmental regulations that are coming into force over the next couple of years, will call on owners to make substantial investments in their assets and we don't expect them to upgrade their older vessels. Current orderbook – not including slippage/cancellations – stands at 8.5% of the world fleet and with 9% of the fleet being over 20 years old you have a good release valve to balance the new deliveries.
On the other side of the equation there still is a growing demand for seaborne transportation. The population continues to expand, emerging countries continue to absorb shipping goods and raw materials, so - still being the most fuel efficient and environment friendly form of commercial transport – seaborne trade will continue to grow; this is a fact. On the other hand, shipping is inherently correlated to the world economy, so the trade contraction from trade wars, may translate into reduction in demand for shipping, and although China is no longer growing at eight or ten percent annually, it's still leading the demand for tonne miles. To put it simply, the demand is under short term shakedown from president Trump. Up until today, the markets have been on wait-and-see mode whether the threats are valid and how far the confrontation will go. The US president's tariffs have been met with Chinese retaliation and Beijing administration confident that they can cope with full scale trade war.
So, although we don't see a ceiling, since there seem to be strong fundamentals for the market to improve further, we are now on a kind of a plateau whereby there are economic as well as political reasons that are preventing markets to improve further. For shipping we believe that this will work in its favour in the longer term as, although it's a good entry point for investments and the upside is there, it makes the ship-owners more careful, patient and they avoid overreactions. This situation should also remind everybody that shipping is an infinite game and the objective of the players – both know and unknown - is to perpetuate the game.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 24 July 18
TANKER MARKET : IN TERMS OF TRADE, THE STEPS THAT WERE SLOWLY BEING TAKEN BY OPEC AND RUSSIA - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
Despite the fact that the tanker market still seems to be in the midst of a perfect storm, there are still strong indicators that better sailing da ...
Thursday, 19 July 18
VINACOMIN PRODUCES OVER 20 MLN TONNES OF RAW COAL FROM YEAR'S START - VNA
The Vietnam National Coal and Mineral Industries Group (Vinacomin) has produced over 20 million tonnes of raw coal and 19.3 million of clean coal f ...
Wednesday, 18 July 18
INDONESIA TO AUCTION 16 MINING SITES - JP
Indonesia will soon auction 16 mining sites as no proposal submissions have been submitted by state-owned enterprises (BUMN) and regional administr ...
Wednesday, 18 July 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - VASILIS MOIRIS
The new regulations for Chinese flag restricting import of Tier I ships have dominated market sentiment during the past days as buyers have been tr ...
Thursday, 12 July 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO/CHINA COAL RV IS BEING FIXED AROUND USD 10500 BSS SINGAPORE - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Cape market continue to be extremely volatile says Fearnleys in its latst weekly report.
The further noted that, last week ended wi ...
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- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
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