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Wednesday, 12 September 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 A recovery in the shipping market since last year has buoyed optimism amongst the people in the industry. Yet if you are to ask most ship-owners if they are happy with the market, you will get a reply “mmmh... not really...”. The market hike seems to have hit a ceiling the past months and whilst the ship earnings have doubled or tripled compared to two years ago, they still seem to be just a touch (?) away from their break-even. Also, opposite to the common belief, during the past few months instead of further improvement we have seen a lot of volatility and a resistance to get to higher levels.
On the ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by 181 vessels since last year corresponding to a marginal growth of just below 2%. This moderate fleet increase versus four percent global growth has no doubt been a major driver of the recovery. Looking forward, there has been some order replenishment and in fact the orderbook is today bigger than what it was a year ago; about half of the new orders are Kamsarmaxes, generating some concerns on over ordering and affecting an already fragile market. On the other hand we can easily argue that the environmental regulations that are coming into force over the next couple of years, will call on owners to make substantial investments in their assets and we don't expect them to upgrade their older vessels. Current orderbook – not including slippage/cancellations – stands at 8.5% of the world fleet and with 9% of the fleet being over 20 years old you have a good release valve to balance the new deliveries.
On the other side of the equation there still is a growing demand for seaborne transportation. The population continues to expand, emerging countries continue to absorb shipping goods and raw materials, so - still being the most fuel efficient and environment friendly form of commercial transport – seaborne trade will continue to grow; this is a fact. On the other hand, shipping is inherently correlated to the world economy, so the trade contraction from trade wars, may translate into reduction in demand for shipping, and although China is no longer growing at eight or ten percent annually, it's still leading the demand for tonne miles. To put it simply, the demand is under short term shakedown from president Trump. Up until today, the markets have been on wait-and-see mode whether the threats are valid and how far the confrontation will go. The US president's tariffs have been met with Chinese retaliation and Beijing administration confident that they can cope with full scale trade war.
So, although we don't see a ceiling, since there seem to be strong fundamentals for the market to improve further, we are now on a kind of a plateau whereby there are economic as well as political reasons that are preventing markets to improve further. For shipping we believe that this will work in its favour in the longer term as, although it's a good entry point for investments and the upside is there, it makes the ship-owners more careful, patient and they avoid overreactions. This situation should also remind everybody that shipping is an infinite game and the objective of the players – both know and unknown - is to perpetuate the game.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 06 July 18
HOW FLEET SIZE, CORPORATE PROFILE AND STRATEGY ARE DECIDING FACTORS IN SELECTING AN APPROPRIATE FINANCING STRATEGY - PWC
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The challenges that shipping companies are facing when selecting an appropriate financing strategy during the current per ...
Friday, 06 July 18
INDIA: GOVT TO RELAX CURBS ON INDIAN FIRMS CHARTERING FOREIGN SHIPS - HINDU BUSINESS LINE
The Ministry of Shipping is clearly in reform mode. On the heels of the recent relaxation of the cabotage law, which allows foreign flag vessels to ...
Friday, 06 July 18
AUSTRALIAN NEWCASTLE SPOT COAL PRICES HIT $120 FOR 1ST TIME SINCE 2012 - REUTERS
Australian thermal coal prices have broken through $120 per tonne for the first time since 2012, driven up by strong consumption in Asia and spot m ...
Thursday, 05 July 18
WHAT THE FAILED GLENCORE-TOHOKU COAL TALKS MEAN FOR THE MARKET - REUTERS
Electric utilities in Japan and other Asian countries are driving blind when it comes to coal prices after the failure of Japan’s Tohoku Elec ...
Thursday, 05 July 18
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE HITS 74 MONTHS HIGH OF $104.65 A TON
COALspot.com: HBA keeps rising. According to latest ministerial decree No.1892 K/30/MEM/2018 dated 2 July 2018, the Indonesian Coal Price Reference ...
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- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
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