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Wednesday, 12 September 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 A recovery in the shipping market since last year has buoyed optimism amongst the people in the industry. Yet if you are to ask most ship-owners if they are happy with the market, you will get a reply “mmmh... not really...”. The market hike seems to have hit a ceiling the past months and whilst the ship earnings have doubled or tripled compared to two years ago, they still seem to be just a touch (?) away from their break-even. Also, opposite to the common belief, during the past few months instead of further improvement we have seen a lot of volatility and a resistance to get to higher levels.
On the ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by 181 vessels since last year corresponding to a marginal growth of just below 2%. This moderate fleet increase versus four percent global growth has no doubt been a major driver of the recovery. Looking forward, there has been some order replenishment and in fact the orderbook is today bigger than what it was a year ago; about half of the new orders are Kamsarmaxes, generating some concerns on over ordering and affecting an already fragile market. On the other hand we can easily argue that the environmental regulations that are coming into force over the next couple of years, will call on owners to make substantial investments in their assets and we don't expect them to upgrade their older vessels. Current orderbook – not including slippage/cancellations – stands at 8.5% of the world fleet and with 9% of the fleet being over 20 years old you have a good release valve to balance the new deliveries.
On the other side of the equation there still is a growing demand for seaborne transportation. The population continues to expand, emerging countries continue to absorb shipping goods and raw materials, so - still being the most fuel efficient and environment friendly form of commercial transport – seaborne trade will continue to grow; this is a fact. On the other hand, shipping is inherently correlated to the world economy, so the trade contraction from trade wars, may translate into reduction in demand for shipping, and although China is no longer growing at eight or ten percent annually, it's still leading the demand for tonne miles. To put it simply, the demand is under short term shakedown from president Trump. Up until today, the markets have been on wait-and-see mode whether the threats are valid and how far the confrontation will go. The US president's tariffs have been met with Chinese retaliation and Beijing administration confident that they can cope with full scale trade war.
So, although we don't see a ceiling, since there seem to be strong fundamentals for the market to improve further, we are now on a kind of a plateau whereby there are economic as well as political reasons that are preventing markets to improve further. For shipping we believe that this will work in its favour in the longer term as, although it's a good entry point for investments and the upside is there, it makes the ship-owners more careful, patient and they avoid overreactions. This situation should also remind everybody that shipping is an infinite game and the objective of the players – both know and unknown - is to perpetuate the game.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 06 July 18
HOW FLEET SIZE, CORPORATE PROFILE AND STRATEGY ARE DECIDING FACTORS IN SELECTING AN APPROPRIATE FINANCING STRATEGY - PWC
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The challenges that shipping companies are facing when selecting an appropriate financing strategy during the current per ...
Friday, 06 July 18
INDIA: GOVT TO RELAX CURBS ON INDIAN FIRMS CHARTERING FOREIGN SHIPS - HINDU BUSINESS LINE
The Ministry of Shipping is clearly in reform mode. On the heels of the recent relaxation of the cabotage law, which allows foreign flag vessels to ...
Friday, 06 July 18
AUSTRALIAN NEWCASTLE SPOT COAL PRICES HIT $120 FOR 1ST TIME SINCE 2012 - REUTERS
Australian thermal coal prices have broken through $120 per tonne for the first time since 2012, driven up by strong consumption in Asia and spot m ...
Thursday, 05 July 18
WHAT THE FAILED GLENCORE-TOHOKU COAL TALKS MEAN FOR THE MARKET - REUTERS
Electric utilities in Japan and other Asian countries are driving blind when it comes to coal prices after the failure of Japan’s Tohoku Elec ...
Thursday, 05 July 18
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE HITS 74 MONTHS HIGH OF $104.65 A TON
COALspot.com: HBA keeps rising. According to latest ministerial decree No.1892 K/30/MEM/2018 dated 2 July 2018, the Indonesian Coal Price Reference ...
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- White Energy Company Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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