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Wednesday, 12 September 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 A recovery in the shipping market since last year has buoyed optimism amongst the people in the industry. Yet if you are to ask most ship-owners if they are happy with the market, you will get a reply “mmmh... not really...”. The market hike seems to have hit a ceiling the past months and whilst the ship earnings have doubled or tripled compared to two years ago, they still seem to be just a touch (?) away from their break-even. Also, opposite to the common belief, during the past few months instead of further improvement we have seen a lot of volatility and a resistance to get to higher levels.
On the ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by 181 vessels since last year corresponding to a marginal growth of just below 2%. This moderate fleet increase versus four percent global growth has no doubt been a major driver of the recovery. Looking forward, there has been some order replenishment and in fact the orderbook is today bigger than what it was a year ago; about half of the new orders are Kamsarmaxes, generating some concerns on over ordering and affecting an already fragile market. On the other hand we can easily argue that the environmental regulations that are coming into force over the next couple of years, will call on owners to make substantial investments in their assets and we don't expect them to upgrade their older vessels. Current orderbook – not including slippage/cancellations – stands at 8.5% of the world fleet and with 9% of the fleet being over 20 years old you have a good release valve to balance the new deliveries.
On the other side of the equation there still is a growing demand for seaborne transportation. The population continues to expand, emerging countries continue to absorb shipping goods and raw materials, so - still being the most fuel efficient and environment friendly form of commercial transport – seaborne trade will continue to grow; this is a fact. On the other hand, shipping is inherently correlated to the world economy, so the trade contraction from trade wars, may translate into reduction in demand for shipping, and although China is no longer growing at eight or ten percent annually, it's still leading the demand for tonne miles. To put it simply, the demand is under short term shakedown from president Trump. Up until today, the markets have been on wait-and-see mode whether the threats are valid and how far the confrontation will go. The US president's tariffs have been met with Chinese retaliation and Beijing administration confident that they can cope with full scale trade war.
So, although we don't see a ceiling, since there seem to be strong fundamentals for the market to improve further, we are now on a kind of a plateau whereby there are economic as well as political reasons that are preventing markets to improve further. For shipping we believe that this will work in its favour in the longer term as, although it's a good entry point for investments and the upside is there, it makes the ship-owners more careful, patient and they avoid overreactions. This situation should also remind everybody that shipping is an infinite game and the objective of the players – both know and unknown - is to perpetuate the game.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 29 June 18
THE LBH GROUP AND RHENUS PLAN TO ESTABLISH A JOINT COMPANY
Press Release: The port services provider, the LBH Group, and the logistics specialist Rhenus, are planning to cooperate closely in the European in ...
Friday, 29 June 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO / CHINA COAL ROUNDS PAYING AROUND USD HIGH 11000 - FEARNLYS
Capesize
Its been an interesting week with a strong demand for ships out of Brazil, making C3 rates remain around USD 19 pmt said Fearnlys in i ...
Friday, 29 June 18
JAPAN'S TOHOKU ELEC, GLENCORE ABANDON APRIL-MARCH COAL CONTRACT TALKS - REUTERS
Japan’s Tohoku Electric Power Co Inc and Glencore Plc have abandoned talks on annual thermal coal supplies after failing to reach an agreemen ...
Wednesday, 27 June 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - APOSTOLOS ROMPOPOULOS
After the abolishment of the trade embargo against Iran, there was a lot of optimism from the country’s side, as after quite some time a numb ...
Tuesday, 26 June 18
"ALWAYS ACCESSIBLE": ARRIVAL, DEPARTURE OR BOTH? - INCE & CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
An “always accessible” berth warranty is often used by an owner to transfer the risk of delays in berthing to ...
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- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The University of Queensland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
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