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Thursday, 16 August 18
OIL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS - OPEC
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In July, the OPEC Reference Basket increased marginally by 5¢ m-o-m to settle at $73.27/b. Oil futures saw mixed movement over the month, while US oil inventories continued to drain, particularly in Cushing,
Oklahoma. ICE Brent averaged 99¢ m-o-m lower at $74.95/b, while NYMEX WTI rose $3.26 m-o-m to $70.58/b. Year-to-date (y-t-d), ICE Brent is $19.53 higher at $71.72/b compared to the same period a year earlier, while NYMEX WTI climbed $16.70 to $66.20/b. The ICE Brent/NYMEX WTI spread narrowed by $4.25/b to $4.37/b in July. Speculative net long positions ended the month lower, particularly for ICE Brent.
The Dubai market backwardated structure eased again, while Brent flipped into contango for the remainder of the year. In the US, WTI backwardation increased significantly for the second successive month. Apart from the USGC costal grades, the global sour discount to sweet crudes increased due to a surplus of sour crudes.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019, unchanged from the previous assessment. After a strong 2Q18, US growth was revised up by 0.1 pp in both 2018 and 2019, reaching 2.9% and 2.5%, respectively. Euro-zone growth slowed and the forecasts were revised down by 0.2 pp to 2% for 2018 and by 0.1 pp to 1.9% in 2019. Growth in Japan remains at 1.2% in 2018, and the same level is projected for 2019. India’s forecasts are unchanged at 7.3% for 2018 and 7.4% for 2019. After solid growth in 1H18, China’s growth forecast was revised up by 0.1 pp to now stand at 6.6% for 2018 and remains at 6.2% for 2019.
Growth in Brazil was revised down by 0.1 pp, reaching 1.6% in 2018, but a mild rebound to 2.1% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast remains unchanged at 1.8% in both 2018 and 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, oil demand growth is anticipated to increase by 1.64 mb/d, 20 tb/d lower than last month’s projections, mainly due to weaker-than-expected oil demand data from Latin America and the Middle East in 2Q18. Total oil demand is anticipated to reach 98.83 mb/d. For 2019, world oil demand is forecast to grow by 1.43 mb/d, also some 20 tb/d lower than last month’s assessment. Total world consumption is anticipated to reach 100.26 mb/d. The OECD region will contribute positively to oil demand growth, rising by 0.27 mb/d y-oy, yet with growth of 1.16 mb/d, non-OECD nations will account for the majority of growth expected.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 was revised up by 73 tb/d from the previous MOMR to average 59.62 mb/d, representing an increase of 2.08 mb/d y-o-y. The main reason for this upward revision was an adjustment for the Chinese supply forecast due to the higher-than-expected oil output in 1H18. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is projected to reach an average of 61.75 mb/d, indicating an upward revision by 106 tb/d, mostly due to a re-assessment of the Chinese supply forecast for the next year. However, y-o-y growth was revised up by only 34 tb/d, to average 2.13 mb/d, owing to downward revisions in the US and Australian supply forecasts. The US, Brazil, Canada, the UK, Kazakhstan, Australia and Malaysia are the main growth drivers; while Mexico and Norway are expected to see the largest declines. The 2019 forecast remains subject to many uncertainties. OPEC NGL production in 2018 and 2019 is expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In July, OPEC production increased by 41 tb/d to average 32.32 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
In July, US margins recorded solid losses as crack spreads for all products with the exception of fuel oil declined, due to weaker fundamentals and higher feedstock costs. Strong middle distillate stock builds and an all-time record breaking jet fuel output further pressured USGC refining margins. In Europe, product markets recorded moderate gains on the top and bottom of the barrel, supported by firm exports outweighing losses seen in the middle of the barrel. Meanwhile, product markets in Asia strengthened, supported by robust gasoline demand from India, lower fuel oil arrivals from Europe and lower crude prices, which led to reduced feedstock costs for refiners, while gasoil output in China hit new highs.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker spot freight rates declined on average in July. This was mainly on the back of the continued weak trend persisting in the market across all classes. VLCC spot freight rates declined on all reported routes, while Suexmax spot freight rates remained flat, suffering from limited activity in general. Aframax saw mixed freight rates; however, average rates went down, pressured by the drop seen in the Caribbean and despite a firmer market in the Mediterranean. Clean tanker average spot freight rates declined as a result of lower freights West of Suez. Generally, the market remained uneventful, with limited demand on tonnage.
Stock Movements
Preliminary data for June showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks fell by 12.8 mb m-o-m to stand at 2,822 mb. This was 197 mb lower than seen during the same time one year ago, and 33 mb below the latest five-year average. However, OECD commercial oil stocks remain 251 mb above the January 2014 level. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell in June to stand at 58.8 days, which is 2.1 days lower than the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, 0.6 mb/d lower than the 2017 level. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32 mb/d, around 0.8 mb/d lower than the 2018 level.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 30 March 18
SHIPPING INDUSTRY CONFIDENCE HITS FOUR-YEAR HIGH - MOORE STEPHENS
Shipping Confidence Survey
In February 2018, the average confidence level expressed by respondents was up from 6.2 in November 2017 t ...
Friday, 30 March 18
EXPLAINING POLAND'S COAL PARADOX - FORBES
In the U.S. coal is succumbing to market forces despite the Trump Administration’s push to support the industry. Abundant, cheap and cleaner ...
Friday, 30 March 18
THIESS SECURES $140M MT OWEN INCREASE
Thiess has secured a A$140 million increase to its contract with Glencore for coal mining services at Mt Owen in the Hunter Valley, Australia. Mt O ...
Wednesday, 28 March 18
THIESS WINS $280M WAHANA EXTENSION
Thiess has been awarded a three-year $280 million contract extension at the Wahana coal mine in South Kalimantan, Indonesia.
According to Thie ...
Wednesday, 28 March 18
RIO TINTO TO SELL KESTREL MINE FOR $2.25 BILLION - REUTERS
Rio Tinto sold its remaining coal asset Kestrel in Australia to private equity manager EMR Capital and Indonesia’s Adaro Energy Tbk for $2.25 ...
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- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
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