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Thursday, 16 August 18
OIL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS - OPEC
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In July, the OPEC Reference Basket increased marginally by 5¢ m-o-m to settle at $73.27/b. Oil futures saw mixed movement over the month, while US oil inventories continued to drain, particularly in Cushing,
Oklahoma. ICE Brent averaged 99¢ m-o-m lower at $74.95/b, while NYMEX WTI rose $3.26 m-o-m to $70.58/b. Year-to-date (y-t-d), ICE Brent is $19.53 higher at $71.72/b compared to the same period a year earlier, while NYMEX WTI climbed $16.70 to $66.20/b. The ICE Brent/NYMEX WTI spread narrowed by $4.25/b to $4.37/b in July. Speculative net long positions ended the month lower, particularly for ICE Brent.
The Dubai market backwardated structure eased again, while Brent flipped into contango for the remainder of the year. In the US, WTI backwardation increased significantly for the second successive month. Apart from the USGC costal grades, the global sour discount to sweet crudes increased due to a surplus of sour crudes.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019, unchanged from the previous assessment. After a strong 2Q18, US growth was revised up by 0.1 pp in both 2018 and 2019, reaching 2.9% and 2.5%, respectively. Euro-zone growth slowed and the forecasts were revised down by 0.2 pp to 2% for 2018 and by 0.1 pp to 1.9% in 2019. Growth in Japan remains at 1.2% in 2018, and the same level is projected for 2019. India’s forecasts are unchanged at 7.3% for 2018 and 7.4% for 2019. After solid growth in 1H18, China’s growth forecast was revised up by 0.1 pp to now stand at 6.6% for 2018 and remains at 6.2% for 2019.
Growth in Brazil was revised down by 0.1 pp, reaching 1.6% in 2018, but a mild rebound to 2.1% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast remains unchanged at 1.8% in both 2018 and 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, oil demand growth is anticipated to increase by 1.64 mb/d, 20 tb/d lower than last month’s projections, mainly due to weaker-than-expected oil demand data from Latin America and the Middle East in 2Q18. Total oil demand is anticipated to reach 98.83 mb/d. For 2019, world oil demand is forecast to grow by 1.43 mb/d, also some 20 tb/d lower than last month’s assessment. Total world consumption is anticipated to reach 100.26 mb/d. The OECD region will contribute positively to oil demand growth, rising by 0.27 mb/d y-oy, yet with growth of 1.16 mb/d, non-OECD nations will account for the majority of growth expected.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 was revised up by 73 tb/d from the previous MOMR to average 59.62 mb/d, representing an increase of 2.08 mb/d y-o-y. The main reason for this upward revision was an adjustment for the Chinese supply forecast due to the higher-than-expected oil output in 1H18. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is projected to reach an average of 61.75 mb/d, indicating an upward revision by 106 tb/d, mostly due to a re-assessment of the Chinese supply forecast for the next year. However, y-o-y growth was revised up by only 34 tb/d, to average 2.13 mb/d, owing to downward revisions in the US and Australian supply forecasts. The US, Brazil, Canada, the UK, Kazakhstan, Australia and Malaysia are the main growth drivers; while Mexico and Norway are expected to see the largest declines. The 2019 forecast remains subject to many uncertainties. OPEC NGL production in 2018 and 2019 is expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In July, OPEC production increased by 41 tb/d to average 32.32 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
In July, US margins recorded solid losses as crack spreads for all products with the exception of fuel oil declined, due to weaker fundamentals and higher feedstock costs. Strong middle distillate stock builds and an all-time record breaking jet fuel output further pressured USGC refining margins. In Europe, product markets recorded moderate gains on the top and bottom of the barrel, supported by firm exports outweighing losses seen in the middle of the barrel. Meanwhile, product markets in Asia strengthened, supported by robust gasoline demand from India, lower fuel oil arrivals from Europe and lower crude prices, which led to reduced feedstock costs for refiners, while gasoil output in China hit new highs.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker spot freight rates declined on average in July. This was mainly on the back of the continued weak trend persisting in the market across all classes. VLCC spot freight rates declined on all reported routes, while Suexmax spot freight rates remained flat, suffering from limited activity in general. Aframax saw mixed freight rates; however, average rates went down, pressured by the drop seen in the Caribbean and despite a firmer market in the Mediterranean. Clean tanker average spot freight rates declined as a result of lower freights West of Suez. Generally, the market remained uneventful, with limited demand on tonnage.
Stock Movements
Preliminary data for June showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks fell by 12.8 mb m-o-m to stand at 2,822 mb. This was 197 mb lower than seen during the same time one year ago, and 33 mb below the latest five-year average. However, OECD commercial oil stocks remain 251 mb above the January 2014 level. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell in June to stand at 58.8 days, which is 2.1 days lower than the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, 0.6 mb/d lower than the 2017 level. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32 mb/d, around 0.8 mb/d lower than the 2018 level.
Source: OPEC
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Thursday, 05 April 18
INDONESIA TO POSTPONE NEW COAL, PALM OIL SHIPPING RULES TO 2020 - REUTERS
Indonesia will delay until 2020 trade rules requiring exporters of coal and crude palm oil to use only Indonesian-flagged vessels, government offic ...
Tuesday, 03 April 18
MARKET ANALYSIS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
In the midst of a relatively quiet week for markets, with disruptions being caused by the Christian holidays, it seems as though we find ourselves ...
Monday, 02 April 18
THE FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE FLAT TO SOFT, SAYS VISTAAR
The freight market softening to continue. Thursday, March 29, 2018, the Baltic Dry Index decreased by 42 points, reaching 1080 points.
T ...
Monday, 02 April 18
THIESS TO DELIVER $150M SENAKIN CONTRACT EXTENSION
Thiess has secured a $150 million contract extension to provide mine services at Arutmin’s Senakin coal mine in South Kalimantan, Indonesia.
...
Monday, 02 April 18
THIESS SECURES $240M SATUI EXTENSION
The successful implementation of an innovative mining plan by Thiess at the Satui coal mine in South Kalimantan, has resulted in a $240 million con ...
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- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
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