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Thursday, 16 August 18
OIL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS - OPEC
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In July, the OPEC Reference Basket increased marginally by 5¢ m-o-m to settle at $73.27/b. Oil futures saw mixed movement over the month, while US oil inventories continued to drain, particularly in Cushing,
Oklahoma. ICE Brent averaged 99¢ m-o-m lower at $74.95/b, while NYMEX WTI rose $3.26 m-o-m to $70.58/b. Year-to-date (y-t-d), ICE Brent is $19.53 higher at $71.72/b compared to the same period a year earlier, while NYMEX WTI climbed $16.70 to $66.20/b. The ICE Brent/NYMEX WTI spread narrowed by $4.25/b to $4.37/b in July. Speculative net long positions ended the month lower, particularly for ICE Brent.
The Dubai market backwardated structure eased again, while Brent flipped into contango for the remainder of the year. In the US, WTI backwardation increased significantly for the second successive month. Apart from the USGC costal grades, the global sour discount to sweet crudes increased due to a surplus of sour crudes.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019, unchanged from the previous assessment. After a strong 2Q18, US growth was revised up by 0.1 pp in both 2018 and 2019, reaching 2.9% and 2.5%, respectively. Euro-zone growth slowed and the forecasts were revised down by 0.2 pp to 2% for 2018 and by 0.1 pp to 1.9% in 2019. Growth in Japan remains at 1.2% in 2018, and the same level is projected for 2019. India’s forecasts are unchanged at 7.3% for 2018 and 7.4% for 2019. After solid growth in 1H18, China’s growth forecast was revised up by 0.1 pp to now stand at 6.6% for 2018 and remains at 6.2% for 2019.
Growth in Brazil was revised down by 0.1 pp, reaching 1.6% in 2018, but a mild rebound to 2.1% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast remains unchanged at 1.8% in both 2018 and 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, oil demand growth is anticipated to increase by 1.64 mb/d, 20 tb/d lower than last month’s projections, mainly due to weaker-than-expected oil demand data from Latin America and the Middle East in 2Q18. Total oil demand is anticipated to reach 98.83 mb/d. For 2019, world oil demand is forecast to grow by 1.43 mb/d, also some 20 tb/d lower than last month’s assessment. Total world consumption is anticipated to reach 100.26 mb/d. The OECD region will contribute positively to oil demand growth, rising by 0.27 mb/d y-oy, yet with growth of 1.16 mb/d, non-OECD nations will account for the majority of growth expected.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 was revised up by 73 tb/d from the previous MOMR to average 59.62 mb/d, representing an increase of 2.08 mb/d y-o-y. The main reason for this upward revision was an adjustment for the Chinese supply forecast due to the higher-than-expected oil output in 1H18. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is projected to reach an average of 61.75 mb/d, indicating an upward revision by 106 tb/d, mostly due to a re-assessment of the Chinese supply forecast for the next year. However, y-o-y growth was revised up by only 34 tb/d, to average 2.13 mb/d, owing to downward revisions in the US and Australian supply forecasts. The US, Brazil, Canada, the UK, Kazakhstan, Australia and Malaysia are the main growth drivers; while Mexico and Norway are expected to see the largest declines. The 2019 forecast remains subject to many uncertainties. OPEC NGL production in 2018 and 2019 is expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In July, OPEC production increased by 41 tb/d to average 32.32 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
In July, US margins recorded solid losses as crack spreads for all products with the exception of fuel oil declined, due to weaker fundamentals and higher feedstock costs. Strong middle distillate stock builds and an all-time record breaking jet fuel output further pressured USGC refining margins. In Europe, product markets recorded moderate gains on the top and bottom of the barrel, supported by firm exports outweighing losses seen in the middle of the barrel. Meanwhile, product markets in Asia strengthened, supported by robust gasoline demand from India, lower fuel oil arrivals from Europe and lower crude prices, which led to reduced feedstock costs for refiners, while gasoil output in China hit new highs.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker spot freight rates declined on average in July. This was mainly on the back of the continued weak trend persisting in the market across all classes. VLCC spot freight rates declined on all reported routes, while Suexmax spot freight rates remained flat, suffering from limited activity in general. Aframax saw mixed freight rates; however, average rates went down, pressured by the drop seen in the Caribbean and despite a firmer market in the Mediterranean. Clean tanker average spot freight rates declined as a result of lower freights West of Suez. Generally, the market remained uneventful, with limited demand on tonnage.
Stock Movements
Preliminary data for June showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks fell by 12.8 mb m-o-m to stand at 2,822 mb. This was 197 mb lower than seen during the same time one year ago, and 33 mb below the latest five-year average. However, OECD commercial oil stocks remain 251 mb above the January 2014 level. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell in June to stand at 58.8 days, which is 2.1 days lower than the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, 0.6 mb/d lower than the 2017 level. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32 mb/d, around 0.8 mb/d lower than the 2018 level.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 27 March 18
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - GERRY LATHROP
With the almost complete phase out of Tier II new-building slots on our door step, along with the plethora of emissions related articles seemingly ...
Friday, 23 March 18
RIO TINTO AGREES SALE OF HAIL CREEK AND VALERIA TO GLENCORE FOR $1.7 BILLION
Press Release: Rio Tinto has entered into a binding agreement with Glencore for the sale of its entire interests in the Hail Creek coal mine and th ...
Wednesday, 21 March 18
CHINA'S RAW COAL OUTPUT UP IN 2017, FIRST GROWTH SINCE 2014 - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output rose in 2017 due to rebounding demand and high-quality capacity, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) ...
Wednesday, 21 March 18
MARKET INSIGHT - CHRISTOPHER T. WHITTY
President’s Trump administration proposed tariffs on steel and aluminum imports in an attempt to target China and Europe among others. Earlie ...
Tuesday, 20 March 18
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
It has been a chilling start to the week for the global economy, with the vast majority of stock exchanges noting a fair drop, after a series of se ...
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Coal Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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