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Thursday, 16 August 18
OIL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS - OPEC
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In July, the OPEC Reference Basket increased marginally by 5¢ m-o-m to settle at $73.27/b. Oil futures saw mixed movement over the month, while US oil inventories continued to drain, particularly in Cushing,
Oklahoma. ICE Brent averaged 99¢ m-o-m lower at $74.95/b, while NYMEX WTI rose $3.26 m-o-m to $70.58/b. Year-to-date (y-t-d), ICE Brent is $19.53 higher at $71.72/b compared to the same period a year earlier, while NYMEX WTI climbed $16.70 to $66.20/b. The ICE Brent/NYMEX WTI spread narrowed by $4.25/b to $4.37/b in July. Speculative net long positions ended the month lower, particularly for ICE Brent.
The Dubai market backwardated structure eased again, while Brent flipped into contango for the remainder of the year. In the US, WTI backwardation increased significantly for the second successive month. Apart from the USGC costal grades, the global sour discount to sweet crudes increased due to a surplus of sour crudes.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019, unchanged from the previous assessment. After a strong 2Q18, US growth was revised up by 0.1 pp in both 2018 and 2019, reaching 2.9% and 2.5%, respectively. Euro-zone growth slowed and the forecasts were revised down by 0.2 pp to 2% for 2018 and by 0.1 pp to 1.9% in 2019. Growth in Japan remains at 1.2% in 2018, and the same level is projected for 2019. India’s forecasts are unchanged at 7.3% for 2018 and 7.4% for 2019. After solid growth in 1H18, China’s growth forecast was revised up by 0.1 pp to now stand at 6.6% for 2018 and remains at 6.2% for 2019.
Growth in Brazil was revised down by 0.1 pp, reaching 1.6% in 2018, but a mild rebound to 2.1% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast remains unchanged at 1.8% in both 2018 and 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, oil demand growth is anticipated to increase by 1.64 mb/d, 20 tb/d lower than last month’s projections, mainly due to weaker-than-expected oil demand data from Latin America and the Middle East in 2Q18. Total oil demand is anticipated to reach 98.83 mb/d. For 2019, world oil demand is forecast to grow by 1.43 mb/d, also some 20 tb/d lower than last month’s assessment. Total world consumption is anticipated to reach 100.26 mb/d. The OECD region will contribute positively to oil demand growth, rising by 0.27 mb/d y-oy, yet with growth of 1.16 mb/d, non-OECD nations will account for the majority of growth expected.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 was revised up by 73 tb/d from the previous MOMR to average 59.62 mb/d, representing an increase of 2.08 mb/d y-o-y. The main reason for this upward revision was an adjustment for the Chinese supply forecast due to the higher-than-expected oil output in 1H18. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is projected to reach an average of 61.75 mb/d, indicating an upward revision by 106 tb/d, mostly due to a re-assessment of the Chinese supply forecast for the next year. However, y-o-y growth was revised up by only 34 tb/d, to average 2.13 mb/d, owing to downward revisions in the US and Australian supply forecasts. The US, Brazil, Canada, the UK, Kazakhstan, Australia and Malaysia are the main growth drivers; while Mexico and Norway are expected to see the largest declines. The 2019 forecast remains subject to many uncertainties. OPEC NGL production in 2018 and 2019 is expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In July, OPEC production increased by 41 tb/d to average 32.32 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
In July, US margins recorded solid losses as crack spreads for all products with the exception of fuel oil declined, due to weaker fundamentals and higher feedstock costs. Strong middle distillate stock builds and an all-time record breaking jet fuel output further pressured USGC refining margins. In Europe, product markets recorded moderate gains on the top and bottom of the barrel, supported by firm exports outweighing losses seen in the middle of the barrel. Meanwhile, product markets in Asia strengthened, supported by robust gasoline demand from India, lower fuel oil arrivals from Europe and lower crude prices, which led to reduced feedstock costs for refiners, while gasoil output in China hit new highs.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker spot freight rates declined on average in July. This was mainly on the back of the continued weak trend persisting in the market across all classes. VLCC spot freight rates declined on all reported routes, while Suexmax spot freight rates remained flat, suffering from limited activity in general. Aframax saw mixed freight rates; however, average rates went down, pressured by the drop seen in the Caribbean and despite a firmer market in the Mediterranean. Clean tanker average spot freight rates declined as a result of lower freights West of Suez. Generally, the market remained uneventful, with limited demand on tonnage.
Stock Movements
Preliminary data for June showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks fell by 12.8 mb m-o-m to stand at 2,822 mb. This was 197 mb lower than seen during the same time one year ago, and 33 mb below the latest five-year average. However, OECD commercial oil stocks remain 251 mb above the January 2014 level. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell in June to stand at 58.8 days, which is 2.1 days lower than the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, 0.6 mb/d lower than the 2017 level. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32 mb/d, around 0.8 mb/d lower than the 2018 level.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 20 March 18
TRAFIGURA GROUP PTE LTD SIGNS RECORD US$5.725 BILLION EUROPEAN MULTICURRENCY SYNDICATED REVOLVING CREDIT FACILITIES AND JPY72.64 BILLION DENOMINATED THREE YEAR TERM LOAN
Press Release: Trafigura Group Pte Ltd. (“Trafigura” or the “Company”), a market leader in the global commodities industry, ...
Monday, 19 March 18
PANAMAX: DESPITE FEWER REPORTED PERIOD TRADES THIS WEEK, RATE LEVELS HAVE REMAINED SOLID - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
There were finally reports of increased Brazil activity, but still largely unconfirmed. Vale reportedly took six ships Thursday for 5 Ap ...
Friday, 16 March 18
WEEKLY US COAL PRODUCTION DROPS 1.9 PER CENT WEEK OVER WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 14.8 million short tons ...
Friday, 16 March 18
INDONESIA COAL PRICE CAP POSES LIMITED RISKS TO PRODUCERS : FITCH
Indonesia’s cap on the benchmark price of coal sold to the domestic electricity sector is unlikely to have a significant impact on the credit ...
Thursday, 15 March 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO TO CHINA COAL ROUNDS ARE PAYING IN THE LOW $13K TO S. CHINA AND HIGH $13K TO NORTH IN CHINA
Supramax
More activity from USG , front hauls to Far East have settled around $25000, and to Cont around $20000. Stable gain again in Black Sea w ...
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- White Energy Company Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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