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Thursday, 16 August 18
OIL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS - OPEC
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In July, the OPEC Reference Basket increased marginally by 5¢ m-o-m to settle at $73.27/b. Oil futures saw mixed movement over the month, while US oil inventories continued to drain, particularly in Cushing,
Oklahoma. ICE Brent averaged 99¢ m-o-m lower at $74.95/b, while NYMEX WTI rose $3.26 m-o-m to $70.58/b. Year-to-date (y-t-d), ICE Brent is $19.53 higher at $71.72/b compared to the same period a year earlier, while NYMEX WTI climbed $16.70 to $66.20/b. The ICE Brent/NYMEX WTI spread narrowed by $4.25/b to $4.37/b in July. Speculative net long positions ended the month lower, particularly for ICE Brent.
The Dubai market backwardated structure eased again, while Brent flipped into contango for the remainder of the year. In the US, WTI backwardation increased significantly for the second successive month. Apart from the USGC costal grades, the global sour discount to sweet crudes increased due to a surplus of sour crudes.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019, unchanged from the previous assessment. After a strong 2Q18, US growth was revised up by 0.1 pp in both 2018 and 2019, reaching 2.9% and 2.5%, respectively. Euro-zone growth slowed and the forecasts were revised down by 0.2 pp to 2% for 2018 and by 0.1 pp to 1.9% in 2019. Growth in Japan remains at 1.2% in 2018, and the same level is projected for 2019. India’s forecasts are unchanged at 7.3% for 2018 and 7.4% for 2019. After solid growth in 1H18, China’s growth forecast was revised up by 0.1 pp to now stand at 6.6% for 2018 and remains at 6.2% for 2019.
Growth in Brazil was revised down by 0.1 pp, reaching 1.6% in 2018, but a mild rebound to 2.1% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast remains unchanged at 1.8% in both 2018 and 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, oil demand growth is anticipated to increase by 1.64 mb/d, 20 tb/d lower than last month’s projections, mainly due to weaker-than-expected oil demand data from Latin America and the Middle East in 2Q18. Total oil demand is anticipated to reach 98.83 mb/d. For 2019, world oil demand is forecast to grow by 1.43 mb/d, also some 20 tb/d lower than last month’s assessment. Total world consumption is anticipated to reach 100.26 mb/d. The OECD region will contribute positively to oil demand growth, rising by 0.27 mb/d y-oy, yet with growth of 1.16 mb/d, non-OECD nations will account for the majority of growth expected.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 was revised up by 73 tb/d from the previous MOMR to average 59.62 mb/d, representing an increase of 2.08 mb/d y-o-y. The main reason for this upward revision was an adjustment for the Chinese supply forecast due to the higher-than-expected oil output in 1H18. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is projected to reach an average of 61.75 mb/d, indicating an upward revision by 106 tb/d, mostly due to a re-assessment of the Chinese supply forecast for the next year. However, y-o-y growth was revised up by only 34 tb/d, to average 2.13 mb/d, owing to downward revisions in the US and Australian supply forecasts. The US, Brazil, Canada, the UK, Kazakhstan, Australia and Malaysia are the main growth drivers; while Mexico and Norway are expected to see the largest declines. The 2019 forecast remains subject to many uncertainties. OPEC NGL production in 2018 and 2019 is expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In July, OPEC production increased by 41 tb/d to average 32.32 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
In July, US margins recorded solid losses as crack spreads for all products with the exception of fuel oil declined, due to weaker fundamentals and higher feedstock costs. Strong middle distillate stock builds and an all-time record breaking jet fuel output further pressured USGC refining margins. In Europe, product markets recorded moderate gains on the top and bottom of the barrel, supported by firm exports outweighing losses seen in the middle of the barrel. Meanwhile, product markets in Asia strengthened, supported by robust gasoline demand from India, lower fuel oil arrivals from Europe and lower crude prices, which led to reduced feedstock costs for refiners, while gasoil output in China hit new highs.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker spot freight rates declined on average in July. This was mainly on the back of the continued weak trend persisting in the market across all classes. VLCC spot freight rates declined on all reported routes, while Suexmax spot freight rates remained flat, suffering from limited activity in general. Aframax saw mixed freight rates; however, average rates went down, pressured by the drop seen in the Caribbean and despite a firmer market in the Mediterranean. Clean tanker average spot freight rates declined as a result of lower freights West of Suez. Generally, the market remained uneventful, with limited demand on tonnage.
Stock Movements
Preliminary data for June showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks fell by 12.8 mb m-o-m to stand at 2,822 mb. This was 197 mb lower than seen during the same time one year ago, and 33 mb below the latest five-year average. However, OECD commercial oil stocks remain 251 mb above the January 2014 level. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell in June to stand at 58.8 days, which is 2.1 days lower than the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, 0.6 mb/d lower than the 2017 level. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32 mb/d, around 0.8 mb/d lower than the 2018 level.
Source: OPEC
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Monday, 12 March 18
DRY BULK MARKET: CAPESIZE MARKET FINDS ITS FOOTING - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Some relief for owners as the week closed out with the market finding a floor in the East. Rates on the key West Australia/China run loo ...
Monday, 12 March 18
COAL OUTPUT FROM PRIVATE MINERS UNLIKELY TO RISE IN MEDIUM TERM: ICRA
Coal output levels from private commercial miners are unlikely to go up considerably in the medium to short term, given the issues related to land ...
Saturday, 10 March 18
ENHANCED PRODUCTION BY COAL INDIA HELPS DECLINE IN COAL IMPORTS
As per the current import policy, coal is kept under Open General License (OGL) and consumers are free to import coal from the source of their choi ...
Saturday, 10 March 18
THE 'RENOS' - COURT OF APPEAL CLARIFIES CTL CALCULATION AND RIGHT OF ABANDONMENT - CLYDE & CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In the matter of the “RENOS”, Mr Justice Knowles addressed a number of issues, at first instance, regarding t ...
Friday, 09 March 18
THE WORLD CANNOT KEEP IGNORING THE ASIAN COAL STORY - BENJAMIN SPORTON
There were significant changes in the global energy system in 2017, including the growth in electric vehicles, the rise of renewables and the conti ...
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- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PTC India Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
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