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Thursday, 16 August 18
OIL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS - OPEC
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In July, the OPEC Reference Basket increased marginally by 5¢ m-o-m to settle at $73.27/b. Oil futures saw mixed movement over the month, while US oil inventories continued to drain, particularly in Cushing,
Oklahoma. ICE Brent averaged 99¢ m-o-m lower at $74.95/b, while NYMEX WTI rose $3.26 m-o-m to $70.58/b. Year-to-date (y-t-d), ICE Brent is $19.53 higher at $71.72/b compared to the same period a year earlier, while NYMEX WTI climbed $16.70 to $66.20/b. The ICE Brent/NYMEX WTI spread narrowed by $4.25/b to $4.37/b in July. Speculative net long positions ended the month lower, particularly for ICE Brent.
The Dubai market backwardated structure eased again, while Brent flipped into contango for the remainder of the year. In the US, WTI backwardation increased significantly for the second successive month. Apart from the USGC costal grades, the global sour discount to sweet crudes increased due to a surplus of sour crudes.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019, unchanged from the previous assessment. After a strong 2Q18, US growth was revised up by 0.1 pp in both 2018 and 2019, reaching 2.9% and 2.5%, respectively. Euro-zone growth slowed and the forecasts were revised down by 0.2 pp to 2% for 2018 and by 0.1 pp to 1.9% in 2019. Growth in Japan remains at 1.2% in 2018, and the same level is projected for 2019. India’s forecasts are unchanged at 7.3% for 2018 and 7.4% for 2019. After solid growth in 1H18, China’s growth forecast was revised up by 0.1 pp to now stand at 6.6% for 2018 and remains at 6.2% for 2019.
Growth in Brazil was revised down by 0.1 pp, reaching 1.6% in 2018, but a mild rebound to 2.1% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast remains unchanged at 1.8% in both 2018 and 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, oil demand growth is anticipated to increase by 1.64 mb/d, 20 tb/d lower than last month’s projections, mainly due to weaker-than-expected oil demand data from Latin America and the Middle East in 2Q18. Total oil demand is anticipated to reach 98.83 mb/d. For 2019, world oil demand is forecast to grow by 1.43 mb/d, also some 20 tb/d lower than last month’s assessment. Total world consumption is anticipated to reach 100.26 mb/d. The OECD region will contribute positively to oil demand growth, rising by 0.27 mb/d y-oy, yet with growth of 1.16 mb/d, non-OECD nations will account for the majority of growth expected.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 was revised up by 73 tb/d from the previous MOMR to average 59.62 mb/d, representing an increase of 2.08 mb/d y-o-y. The main reason for this upward revision was an adjustment for the Chinese supply forecast due to the higher-than-expected oil output in 1H18. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is projected to reach an average of 61.75 mb/d, indicating an upward revision by 106 tb/d, mostly due to a re-assessment of the Chinese supply forecast for the next year. However, y-o-y growth was revised up by only 34 tb/d, to average 2.13 mb/d, owing to downward revisions in the US and Australian supply forecasts. The US, Brazil, Canada, the UK, Kazakhstan, Australia and Malaysia are the main growth drivers; while Mexico and Norway are expected to see the largest declines. The 2019 forecast remains subject to many uncertainties. OPEC NGL production in 2018 and 2019 is expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In July, OPEC production increased by 41 tb/d to average 32.32 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
In July, US margins recorded solid losses as crack spreads for all products with the exception of fuel oil declined, due to weaker fundamentals and higher feedstock costs. Strong middle distillate stock builds and an all-time record breaking jet fuel output further pressured USGC refining margins. In Europe, product markets recorded moderate gains on the top and bottom of the barrel, supported by firm exports outweighing losses seen in the middle of the barrel. Meanwhile, product markets in Asia strengthened, supported by robust gasoline demand from India, lower fuel oil arrivals from Europe and lower crude prices, which led to reduced feedstock costs for refiners, while gasoil output in China hit new highs.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker spot freight rates declined on average in July. This was mainly on the back of the continued weak trend persisting in the market across all classes. VLCC spot freight rates declined on all reported routes, while Suexmax spot freight rates remained flat, suffering from limited activity in general. Aframax saw mixed freight rates; however, average rates went down, pressured by the drop seen in the Caribbean and despite a firmer market in the Mediterranean. Clean tanker average spot freight rates declined as a result of lower freights West of Suez. Generally, the market remained uneventful, with limited demand on tonnage.
Stock Movements
Preliminary data for June showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks fell by 12.8 mb m-o-m to stand at 2,822 mb. This was 197 mb lower than seen during the same time one year ago, and 33 mb below the latest five-year average. However, OECD commercial oil stocks remain 251 mb above the January 2014 level. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell in June to stand at 58.8 days, which is 2.1 days lower than the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, 0.6 mb/d lower than the 2017 level. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32 mb/d, around 0.8 mb/d lower than the 2018 level.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 07 March 18
WHEN AN IRRESISTIBLE FORCE MEETS AN IMMOVABLE OBJECT - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Negotiable bills of lading are fundamental to trade. As documents of title, they are essential to the sale and carriage o ...
Wednesday, 07 March 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
The comparably small upside Handysize asset values have noted compared to other sizes since the historical lows of the dry bulk market in combinati ...
Tuesday, 06 March 18
FOREIGN INVESTORS ALLOWED TO BID FOR BIG MINING CONCESSIONS - THE JAKARTA POST
The government has allowed foreign investors to bid for mining concessions with a total area of more than 500 hectares, while smaller areas will be ...
Tuesday, 06 March 18
LNG VESSELS HAVE EMERGED AS THE FASTEST GROWING SEGMENT FOR THE WATERWAY - GERRY LATHROP
The day was July 25th 2016, a partly cloudy day on the Panama canal, and to most people a rather innocuous day without any real merit, however in s ...
Friday, 02 March 18
ANGLO AMERICAN COMPLETES SALE OF ESKOM-TIED THERMAL COAL OPERATIONS IN SOUTH AFRICA
Anglo American plc (“Anglo American”) confirms completion of the sale of its Eskom-tied domestic thermal coal operations in South Afric ...
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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