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Thursday, 16 August 18
OIL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS - OPEC
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In July, the OPEC Reference Basket increased marginally by 5¢ m-o-m to settle at $73.27/b. Oil futures saw mixed movement over the month, while US oil inventories continued to drain, particularly in Cushing,
Oklahoma. ICE Brent averaged 99¢ m-o-m lower at $74.95/b, while NYMEX WTI rose $3.26 m-o-m to $70.58/b. Year-to-date (y-t-d), ICE Brent is $19.53 higher at $71.72/b compared to the same period a year earlier, while NYMEX WTI climbed $16.70 to $66.20/b. The ICE Brent/NYMEX WTI spread narrowed by $4.25/b to $4.37/b in July. Speculative net long positions ended the month lower, particularly for ICE Brent.
The Dubai market backwardated structure eased again, while Brent flipped into contango for the remainder of the year. In the US, WTI backwardation increased significantly for the second successive month. Apart from the USGC costal grades, the global sour discount to sweet crudes increased due to a surplus of sour crudes.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019, unchanged from the previous assessment. After a strong 2Q18, US growth was revised up by 0.1 pp in both 2018 and 2019, reaching 2.9% and 2.5%, respectively. Euro-zone growth slowed and the forecasts were revised down by 0.2 pp to 2% for 2018 and by 0.1 pp to 1.9% in 2019. Growth in Japan remains at 1.2% in 2018, and the same level is projected for 2019. India’s forecasts are unchanged at 7.3% for 2018 and 7.4% for 2019. After solid growth in 1H18, China’s growth forecast was revised up by 0.1 pp to now stand at 6.6% for 2018 and remains at 6.2% for 2019.
Growth in Brazil was revised down by 0.1 pp, reaching 1.6% in 2018, but a mild rebound to 2.1% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast remains unchanged at 1.8% in both 2018 and 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, oil demand growth is anticipated to increase by 1.64 mb/d, 20 tb/d lower than last month’s projections, mainly due to weaker-than-expected oil demand data from Latin America and the Middle East in 2Q18. Total oil demand is anticipated to reach 98.83 mb/d. For 2019, world oil demand is forecast to grow by 1.43 mb/d, also some 20 tb/d lower than last month’s assessment. Total world consumption is anticipated to reach 100.26 mb/d. The OECD region will contribute positively to oil demand growth, rising by 0.27 mb/d y-oy, yet with growth of 1.16 mb/d, non-OECD nations will account for the majority of growth expected.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 was revised up by 73 tb/d from the previous MOMR to average 59.62 mb/d, representing an increase of 2.08 mb/d y-o-y. The main reason for this upward revision was an adjustment for the Chinese supply forecast due to the higher-than-expected oil output in 1H18. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is projected to reach an average of 61.75 mb/d, indicating an upward revision by 106 tb/d, mostly due to a re-assessment of the Chinese supply forecast for the next year. However, y-o-y growth was revised up by only 34 tb/d, to average 2.13 mb/d, owing to downward revisions in the US and Australian supply forecasts. The US, Brazil, Canada, the UK, Kazakhstan, Australia and Malaysia are the main growth drivers; while Mexico and Norway are expected to see the largest declines. The 2019 forecast remains subject to many uncertainties. OPEC NGL production in 2018 and 2019 is expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In July, OPEC production increased by 41 tb/d to average 32.32 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
In July, US margins recorded solid losses as crack spreads for all products with the exception of fuel oil declined, due to weaker fundamentals and higher feedstock costs. Strong middle distillate stock builds and an all-time record breaking jet fuel output further pressured USGC refining margins. In Europe, product markets recorded moderate gains on the top and bottom of the barrel, supported by firm exports outweighing losses seen in the middle of the barrel. Meanwhile, product markets in Asia strengthened, supported by robust gasoline demand from India, lower fuel oil arrivals from Europe and lower crude prices, which led to reduced feedstock costs for refiners, while gasoil output in China hit new highs.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker spot freight rates declined on average in July. This was mainly on the back of the continued weak trend persisting in the market across all classes. VLCC spot freight rates declined on all reported routes, while Suexmax spot freight rates remained flat, suffering from limited activity in general. Aframax saw mixed freight rates; however, average rates went down, pressured by the drop seen in the Caribbean and despite a firmer market in the Mediterranean. Clean tanker average spot freight rates declined as a result of lower freights West of Suez. Generally, the market remained uneventful, with limited demand on tonnage.
Stock Movements
Preliminary data for June showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks fell by 12.8 mb m-o-m to stand at 2,822 mb. This was 197 mb lower than seen during the same time one year ago, and 33 mb below the latest five-year average. However, OECD commercial oil stocks remain 251 mb above the January 2014 level. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell in June to stand at 58.8 days, which is 2.1 days lower than the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, 0.6 mb/d lower than the 2017 level. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32 mb/d, around 0.8 mb/d lower than the 2018 level.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 02 March 18
MORE COAL INQUIRES FROM SOUTH AFRICA TO INDIA; SUPRAS FIXED CA $12K + BB - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Better rates in Atlantic, but not too busy market just yet.
Black Sea catched improving rates for grain cargoes, where supras to Eg ...
Friday, 02 March 18
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION DOWN 2.7 PER CENT W/E 24 FEB, EIA DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.2 million short tons ...
Wednesday, 28 February 18
INDIA: TEPID COAL TRAFFIC TO HIT VOLUME GROWTH AT PORTS TILL 2022 - PTI
Cargo growth at the country’s major ports is all set to moderate to 3-5 per cent per annum over the next five years due to the “sedate ...
Wednesday, 28 February 18
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
US Shale production continues to grow rapidly, hitting new records and with projections being revised upwardly at every turn. According to the Inte ...
Tuesday, 27 February 18
SHELL SEES POTENTIAL LNG SUPPLY SHORTAGE AS GLOBAL DEMAND SURGES
Media Release: The global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market has continued to defy expectations of many market observers, with demand growing by 29 ...
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- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PTC India Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
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