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Thursday, 16 August 18
OIL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS - OPEC
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In July, the OPEC Reference Basket increased marginally by 5¢ m-o-m to settle at $73.27/b. Oil futures saw mixed movement over the month, while US oil inventories continued to drain, particularly in Cushing,
Oklahoma. ICE Brent averaged 99¢ m-o-m lower at $74.95/b, while NYMEX WTI rose $3.26 m-o-m to $70.58/b. Year-to-date (y-t-d), ICE Brent is $19.53 higher at $71.72/b compared to the same period a year earlier, while NYMEX WTI climbed $16.70 to $66.20/b. The ICE Brent/NYMEX WTI spread narrowed by $4.25/b to $4.37/b in July. Speculative net long positions ended the month lower, particularly for ICE Brent.
The Dubai market backwardated structure eased again, while Brent flipped into contango for the remainder of the year. In the US, WTI backwardation increased significantly for the second successive month. Apart from the USGC costal grades, the global sour discount to sweet crudes increased due to a surplus of sour crudes.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019, unchanged from the previous assessment. After a strong 2Q18, US growth was revised up by 0.1 pp in both 2018 and 2019, reaching 2.9% and 2.5%, respectively. Euro-zone growth slowed and the forecasts were revised down by 0.2 pp to 2% for 2018 and by 0.1 pp to 1.9% in 2019. Growth in Japan remains at 1.2% in 2018, and the same level is projected for 2019. India’s forecasts are unchanged at 7.3% for 2018 and 7.4% for 2019. After solid growth in 1H18, China’s growth forecast was revised up by 0.1 pp to now stand at 6.6% for 2018 and remains at 6.2% for 2019.
Growth in Brazil was revised down by 0.1 pp, reaching 1.6% in 2018, but a mild rebound to 2.1% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast remains unchanged at 1.8% in both 2018 and 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, oil demand growth is anticipated to increase by 1.64 mb/d, 20 tb/d lower than last month’s projections, mainly due to weaker-than-expected oil demand data from Latin America and the Middle East in 2Q18. Total oil demand is anticipated to reach 98.83 mb/d. For 2019, world oil demand is forecast to grow by 1.43 mb/d, also some 20 tb/d lower than last month’s assessment. Total world consumption is anticipated to reach 100.26 mb/d. The OECD region will contribute positively to oil demand growth, rising by 0.27 mb/d y-oy, yet with growth of 1.16 mb/d, non-OECD nations will account for the majority of growth expected.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 was revised up by 73 tb/d from the previous MOMR to average 59.62 mb/d, representing an increase of 2.08 mb/d y-o-y. The main reason for this upward revision was an adjustment for the Chinese supply forecast due to the higher-than-expected oil output in 1H18. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is projected to reach an average of 61.75 mb/d, indicating an upward revision by 106 tb/d, mostly due to a re-assessment of the Chinese supply forecast for the next year. However, y-o-y growth was revised up by only 34 tb/d, to average 2.13 mb/d, owing to downward revisions in the US and Australian supply forecasts. The US, Brazil, Canada, the UK, Kazakhstan, Australia and Malaysia are the main growth drivers; while Mexico and Norway are expected to see the largest declines. The 2019 forecast remains subject to many uncertainties. OPEC NGL production in 2018 and 2019 is expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In July, OPEC production increased by 41 tb/d to average 32.32 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
In July, US margins recorded solid losses as crack spreads for all products with the exception of fuel oil declined, due to weaker fundamentals and higher feedstock costs. Strong middle distillate stock builds and an all-time record breaking jet fuel output further pressured USGC refining margins. In Europe, product markets recorded moderate gains on the top and bottom of the barrel, supported by firm exports outweighing losses seen in the middle of the barrel. Meanwhile, product markets in Asia strengthened, supported by robust gasoline demand from India, lower fuel oil arrivals from Europe and lower crude prices, which led to reduced feedstock costs for refiners, while gasoil output in China hit new highs.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker spot freight rates declined on average in July. This was mainly on the back of the continued weak trend persisting in the market across all classes. VLCC spot freight rates declined on all reported routes, while Suexmax spot freight rates remained flat, suffering from limited activity in general. Aframax saw mixed freight rates; however, average rates went down, pressured by the drop seen in the Caribbean and despite a firmer market in the Mediterranean. Clean tanker average spot freight rates declined as a result of lower freights West of Suez. Generally, the market remained uneventful, with limited demand on tonnage.
Stock Movements
Preliminary data for June showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks fell by 12.8 mb m-o-m to stand at 2,822 mb. This was 197 mb lower than seen during the same time one year ago, and 33 mb below the latest five-year average. However, OECD commercial oil stocks remain 251 mb above the January 2014 level. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell in June to stand at 58.8 days, which is 2.1 days lower than the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, 0.6 mb/d lower than the 2017 level. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32 mb/d, around 0.8 mb/d lower than the 2018 level.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 09 March 18
U.S. EXPORTED 97 MMST OF COAL IN 2017, A 61 PER CENT INCREASE FROM 2016 - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.1 million short tons ...
Thursday, 08 March 18
BUMA SIGNED OVER US$ 500 MILLION WORTH OF NEW CONTRACT WITH PT TANAH BUMBU RESOURCES
PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk., announced that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama ("BUMA"), has entered into mining services ...
Thursday, 08 March 18
THE ENERGY CONTRIBUTION FROM COAL-BASED POWER PLANTS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE TO 1072 BU BY 2021-22 : PIB
Government of India has set an ambitious target of 175 GW from Renewable energy sources (RES) by 2022, which comprises of 100 GW Solar, 60GW from W ...
Thursday, 08 March 18
SUPRAMAX: THE MARKET IS STILL GOING STRONG IN THE PACIFIC - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
The market is still going strong in the Pacific, with Ultra fixing high US$ 13000+375000 bb for South Africa to ECI while nickel ore run ...
Thursday, 08 March 18
AVERAGE U.S. COAL MINING PRODUCTIVITY INCREASES AS PRODUCTION FALLS - EIA
Coal mining productivity in the United States increased 26% over the past five years, reaching 6.8 tons per miner hour in 2017, up from 5.4 tons pe ...
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
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