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Thursday, 16 August 18
OIL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS - OPEC
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In July, the OPEC Reference Basket increased marginally by 5¢ m-o-m to settle at $73.27/b. Oil futures saw mixed movement over the month, while US oil inventories continued to drain, particularly in Cushing,
Oklahoma. ICE Brent averaged 99¢ m-o-m lower at $74.95/b, while NYMEX WTI rose $3.26 m-o-m to $70.58/b. Year-to-date (y-t-d), ICE Brent is $19.53 higher at $71.72/b compared to the same period a year earlier, while NYMEX WTI climbed $16.70 to $66.20/b. The ICE Brent/NYMEX WTI spread narrowed by $4.25/b to $4.37/b in July. Speculative net long positions ended the month lower, particularly for ICE Brent.
The Dubai market backwardated structure eased again, while Brent flipped into contango for the remainder of the year. In the US, WTI backwardation increased significantly for the second successive month. Apart from the USGC costal grades, the global sour discount to sweet crudes increased due to a surplus of sour crudes.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019, unchanged from the previous assessment. After a strong 2Q18, US growth was revised up by 0.1 pp in both 2018 and 2019, reaching 2.9% and 2.5%, respectively. Euro-zone growth slowed and the forecasts were revised down by 0.2 pp to 2% for 2018 and by 0.1 pp to 1.9% in 2019. Growth in Japan remains at 1.2% in 2018, and the same level is projected for 2019. India’s forecasts are unchanged at 7.3% for 2018 and 7.4% for 2019. After solid growth in 1H18, China’s growth forecast was revised up by 0.1 pp to now stand at 6.6% for 2018 and remains at 6.2% for 2019.
Growth in Brazil was revised down by 0.1 pp, reaching 1.6% in 2018, but a mild rebound to 2.1% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast remains unchanged at 1.8% in both 2018 and 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, oil demand growth is anticipated to increase by 1.64 mb/d, 20 tb/d lower than last month’s projections, mainly due to weaker-than-expected oil demand data from Latin America and the Middle East in 2Q18. Total oil demand is anticipated to reach 98.83 mb/d. For 2019, world oil demand is forecast to grow by 1.43 mb/d, also some 20 tb/d lower than last month’s assessment. Total world consumption is anticipated to reach 100.26 mb/d. The OECD region will contribute positively to oil demand growth, rising by 0.27 mb/d y-oy, yet with growth of 1.16 mb/d, non-OECD nations will account for the majority of growth expected.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 was revised up by 73 tb/d from the previous MOMR to average 59.62 mb/d, representing an increase of 2.08 mb/d y-o-y. The main reason for this upward revision was an adjustment for the Chinese supply forecast due to the higher-than-expected oil output in 1H18. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is projected to reach an average of 61.75 mb/d, indicating an upward revision by 106 tb/d, mostly due to a re-assessment of the Chinese supply forecast for the next year. However, y-o-y growth was revised up by only 34 tb/d, to average 2.13 mb/d, owing to downward revisions in the US and Australian supply forecasts. The US, Brazil, Canada, the UK, Kazakhstan, Australia and Malaysia are the main growth drivers; while Mexico and Norway are expected to see the largest declines. The 2019 forecast remains subject to many uncertainties. OPEC NGL production in 2018 and 2019 is expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In July, OPEC production increased by 41 tb/d to average 32.32 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
In July, US margins recorded solid losses as crack spreads for all products with the exception of fuel oil declined, due to weaker fundamentals and higher feedstock costs. Strong middle distillate stock builds and an all-time record breaking jet fuel output further pressured USGC refining margins. In Europe, product markets recorded moderate gains on the top and bottom of the barrel, supported by firm exports outweighing losses seen in the middle of the barrel. Meanwhile, product markets in Asia strengthened, supported by robust gasoline demand from India, lower fuel oil arrivals from Europe and lower crude prices, which led to reduced feedstock costs for refiners, while gasoil output in China hit new highs.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker spot freight rates declined on average in July. This was mainly on the back of the continued weak trend persisting in the market across all classes. VLCC spot freight rates declined on all reported routes, while Suexmax spot freight rates remained flat, suffering from limited activity in general. Aframax saw mixed freight rates; however, average rates went down, pressured by the drop seen in the Caribbean and despite a firmer market in the Mediterranean. Clean tanker average spot freight rates declined as a result of lower freights West of Suez. Generally, the market remained uneventful, with limited demand on tonnage.
Stock Movements
Preliminary data for June showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks fell by 12.8 mb m-o-m to stand at 2,822 mb. This was 197 mb lower than seen during the same time one year ago, and 33 mb below the latest five-year average. However, OECD commercial oil stocks remain 251 mb above the January 2014 level. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell in June to stand at 58.8 days, which is 2.1 days lower than the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, 0.6 mb/d lower than the 2017 level. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32 mb/d, around 0.8 mb/d lower than the 2018 level.
Source: OPEC
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Monday, 16 April 18
MINISTER IGNASIUS JONAN SPEAKS HIS MIND AT INDONESIA MINER - IAN WOLLFF
The Minister for Energy and Mineral resources, Ignasius Jonan, delivered a key note address at the Indonesia Miner conference in Jakarta on the 11 ...
Thursday, 12 April 18
THE PERFECT STORM FOR THE BIG SHIPS - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The perfect storm for the big ships: with holidays, force majeure in two ore exporting ports and bad weather undermining the market. A l ...
Thursday, 12 April 18
SHIPPING CAN MANAGE US-CHINA TARIFFS, BUT RISKS RISING - FITCH
Container and, to some extent, dry bulk would probably be the shipping segments most affected by the recently announced US and China tariffs, Fitch ...
Thursday, 12 April 18
SUPRAS HAVE FIXED MID $11K FOR AN INDO RV TO S. CHINA DELIVERY PHILIPPINES - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Slow week with little light for improving rates. ECSA to Far East still around $15k + bb and same to Med ca $14k, says Fearnleys in its ...
Thursday, 12 April 18
ALWAYS ACCESSIBLE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
On 26 March 2018 Mr Justice Knowles determined that the berth warranty ‘always accessible’ must mean the vess ...
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- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Minerals Council of Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PTC India Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
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