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Thursday, 16 August 18
OIL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS - OPEC
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In July, the OPEC Reference Basket increased marginally by 5¢ m-o-m to settle at $73.27/b. Oil futures saw mixed movement over the month, while US oil inventories continued to drain, particularly in Cushing,
Oklahoma. ICE Brent averaged 99¢ m-o-m lower at $74.95/b, while NYMEX WTI rose $3.26 m-o-m to $70.58/b. Year-to-date (y-t-d), ICE Brent is $19.53 higher at $71.72/b compared to the same period a year earlier, while NYMEX WTI climbed $16.70 to $66.20/b. The ICE Brent/NYMEX WTI spread narrowed by $4.25/b to $4.37/b in July. Speculative net long positions ended the month lower, particularly for ICE Brent.
The Dubai market backwardated structure eased again, while Brent flipped into contango for the remainder of the year. In the US, WTI backwardation increased significantly for the second successive month. Apart from the USGC costal grades, the global sour discount to sweet crudes increased due to a surplus of sour crudes.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019, unchanged from the previous assessment. After a strong 2Q18, US growth was revised up by 0.1 pp in both 2018 and 2019, reaching 2.9% and 2.5%, respectively. Euro-zone growth slowed and the forecasts were revised down by 0.2 pp to 2% for 2018 and by 0.1 pp to 1.9% in 2019. Growth in Japan remains at 1.2% in 2018, and the same level is projected for 2019. India’s forecasts are unchanged at 7.3% for 2018 and 7.4% for 2019. After solid growth in 1H18, China’s growth forecast was revised up by 0.1 pp to now stand at 6.6% for 2018 and remains at 6.2% for 2019.
Growth in Brazil was revised down by 0.1 pp, reaching 1.6% in 2018, but a mild rebound to 2.1% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast remains unchanged at 1.8% in both 2018 and 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, oil demand growth is anticipated to increase by 1.64 mb/d, 20 tb/d lower than last month’s projections, mainly due to weaker-than-expected oil demand data from Latin America and the Middle East in 2Q18. Total oil demand is anticipated to reach 98.83 mb/d. For 2019, world oil demand is forecast to grow by 1.43 mb/d, also some 20 tb/d lower than last month’s assessment. Total world consumption is anticipated to reach 100.26 mb/d. The OECD region will contribute positively to oil demand growth, rising by 0.27 mb/d y-oy, yet with growth of 1.16 mb/d, non-OECD nations will account for the majority of growth expected.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 was revised up by 73 tb/d from the previous MOMR to average 59.62 mb/d, representing an increase of 2.08 mb/d y-o-y. The main reason for this upward revision was an adjustment for the Chinese supply forecast due to the higher-than-expected oil output in 1H18. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is projected to reach an average of 61.75 mb/d, indicating an upward revision by 106 tb/d, mostly due to a re-assessment of the Chinese supply forecast for the next year. However, y-o-y growth was revised up by only 34 tb/d, to average 2.13 mb/d, owing to downward revisions in the US and Australian supply forecasts. The US, Brazil, Canada, the UK, Kazakhstan, Australia and Malaysia are the main growth drivers; while Mexico and Norway are expected to see the largest declines. The 2019 forecast remains subject to many uncertainties. OPEC NGL production in 2018 and 2019 is expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In July, OPEC production increased by 41 tb/d to average 32.32 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
In July, US margins recorded solid losses as crack spreads for all products with the exception of fuel oil declined, due to weaker fundamentals and higher feedstock costs. Strong middle distillate stock builds and an all-time record breaking jet fuel output further pressured USGC refining margins. In Europe, product markets recorded moderate gains on the top and bottom of the barrel, supported by firm exports outweighing losses seen in the middle of the barrel. Meanwhile, product markets in Asia strengthened, supported by robust gasoline demand from India, lower fuel oil arrivals from Europe and lower crude prices, which led to reduced feedstock costs for refiners, while gasoil output in China hit new highs.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker spot freight rates declined on average in July. This was mainly on the back of the continued weak trend persisting in the market across all classes. VLCC spot freight rates declined on all reported routes, while Suexmax spot freight rates remained flat, suffering from limited activity in general. Aframax saw mixed freight rates; however, average rates went down, pressured by the drop seen in the Caribbean and despite a firmer market in the Mediterranean. Clean tanker average spot freight rates declined as a result of lower freights West of Suez. Generally, the market remained uneventful, with limited demand on tonnage.
Stock Movements
Preliminary data for June showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks fell by 12.8 mb m-o-m to stand at 2,822 mb. This was 197 mb lower than seen during the same time one year ago, and 33 mb below the latest five-year average. However, OECD commercial oil stocks remain 251 mb above the January 2014 level. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell in June to stand at 58.8 days, which is 2.1 days lower than the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, 0.6 mb/d lower than the 2017 level. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32 mb/d, around 0.8 mb/d lower than the 2018 level.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 01 May 18
GLOBAL MINER PEABODY EYES SALES OPPORTUNITY IN INDIA’S RISING COAL IMPORTS - BUSINESS STANDARD
Indian imports of coal will continue to rise, reckons the world’s largest private sector coal miner Peabody Energy. Glenn Kellow, president a ...
Saturday, 28 April 18
STRONG ASIAN DEMAND CONTINUES TO HOLD UP THERMAL COAL MARKETS - REUTERS
Asian thermal coal demand is defying its typical seasonal slowdown as well as the expanding use of renewables and natural gas, with prices holding ...
Friday, 27 April 18
PEABODY ENERGY'S REVENUES FOR THE FIRST QUARTER ROSE 10 PERCENT OVER THE PRIOR YEAR TO $1.46 BILLION
Peabody Energy's revenues for the first quarter rose 10 percent over the prior year to $1.46 billion driven by improved seaborne coal pricing a ...
Thursday, 26 April 18
BALTIC EXCHANGE LAUNCHES ESCROW SERVICE FOR VESSEL SALES
The Baltic Exchange will be launching an Escrow Service for its members to hold deposits for ship sale transactions. The move will allow Baltic Exc ...
Thursday, 26 April 18
COAL PRICES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE $85/MT IN 2018, DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM 2017 - WORLD BANK
Coal prices rose 4 percent in the first quarter (q/q), following a surge of 34 percent in 2017, mainly due to strong consumption in China spurred b ...
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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