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Thursday, 16 August 18
OIL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS - OPEC
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In July, the OPEC Reference Basket increased marginally by 5¢ m-o-m to settle at $73.27/b. Oil futures saw mixed movement over the month, while US oil inventories continued to drain, particularly in Cushing,
Oklahoma. ICE Brent averaged 99¢ m-o-m lower at $74.95/b, while NYMEX WTI rose $3.26 m-o-m to $70.58/b. Year-to-date (y-t-d), ICE Brent is $19.53 higher at $71.72/b compared to the same period a year earlier, while NYMEX WTI climbed $16.70 to $66.20/b. The ICE Brent/NYMEX WTI spread narrowed by $4.25/b to $4.37/b in July. Speculative net long positions ended the month lower, particularly for ICE Brent.
The Dubai market backwardated structure eased again, while Brent flipped into contango for the remainder of the year. In the US, WTI backwardation increased significantly for the second successive month. Apart from the USGC costal grades, the global sour discount to sweet crudes increased due to a surplus of sour crudes.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019, unchanged from the previous assessment. After a strong 2Q18, US growth was revised up by 0.1 pp in both 2018 and 2019, reaching 2.9% and 2.5%, respectively. Euro-zone growth slowed and the forecasts were revised down by 0.2 pp to 2% for 2018 and by 0.1 pp to 1.9% in 2019. Growth in Japan remains at 1.2% in 2018, and the same level is projected for 2019. India’s forecasts are unchanged at 7.3% for 2018 and 7.4% for 2019. After solid growth in 1H18, China’s growth forecast was revised up by 0.1 pp to now stand at 6.6% for 2018 and remains at 6.2% for 2019.
Growth in Brazil was revised down by 0.1 pp, reaching 1.6% in 2018, but a mild rebound to 2.1% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast remains unchanged at 1.8% in both 2018 and 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, oil demand growth is anticipated to increase by 1.64 mb/d, 20 tb/d lower than last month’s projections, mainly due to weaker-than-expected oil demand data from Latin America and the Middle East in 2Q18. Total oil demand is anticipated to reach 98.83 mb/d. For 2019, world oil demand is forecast to grow by 1.43 mb/d, also some 20 tb/d lower than last month’s assessment. Total world consumption is anticipated to reach 100.26 mb/d. The OECD region will contribute positively to oil demand growth, rising by 0.27 mb/d y-oy, yet with growth of 1.16 mb/d, non-OECD nations will account for the majority of growth expected.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 was revised up by 73 tb/d from the previous MOMR to average 59.62 mb/d, representing an increase of 2.08 mb/d y-o-y. The main reason for this upward revision was an adjustment for the Chinese supply forecast due to the higher-than-expected oil output in 1H18. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is projected to reach an average of 61.75 mb/d, indicating an upward revision by 106 tb/d, mostly due to a re-assessment of the Chinese supply forecast for the next year. However, y-o-y growth was revised up by only 34 tb/d, to average 2.13 mb/d, owing to downward revisions in the US and Australian supply forecasts. The US, Brazil, Canada, the UK, Kazakhstan, Australia and Malaysia are the main growth drivers; while Mexico and Norway are expected to see the largest declines. The 2019 forecast remains subject to many uncertainties. OPEC NGL production in 2018 and 2019 is expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In July, OPEC production increased by 41 tb/d to average 32.32 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
In July, US margins recorded solid losses as crack spreads for all products with the exception of fuel oil declined, due to weaker fundamentals and higher feedstock costs. Strong middle distillate stock builds and an all-time record breaking jet fuel output further pressured USGC refining margins. In Europe, product markets recorded moderate gains on the top and bottom of the barrel, supported by firm exports outweighing losses seen in the middle of the barrel. Meanwhile, product markets in Asia strengthened, supported by robust gasoline demand from India, lower fuel oil arrivals from Europe and lower crude prices, which led to reduced feedstock costs for refiners, while gasoil output in China hit new highs.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker spot freight rates declined on average in July. This was mainly on the back of the continued weak trend persisting in the market across all classes. VLCC spot freight rates declined on all reported routes, while Suexmax spot freight rates remained flat, suffering from limited activity in general. Aframax saw mixed freight rates; however, average rates went down, pressured by the drop seen in the Caribbean and despite a firmer market in the Mediterranean. Clean tanker average spot freight rates declined as a result of lower freights West of Suez. Generally, the market remained uneventful, with limited demand on tonnage.
Stock Movements
Preliminary data for June showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks fell by 12.8 mb m-o-m to stand at 2,822 mb. This was 197 mb lower than seen during the same time one year ago, and 33 mb below the latest five-year average. However, OECD commercial oil stocks remain 251 mb above the January 2014 level. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell in June to stand at 58.8 days, which is 2.1 days lower than the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, 0.6 mb/d lower than the 2017 level. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32 mb/d, around 0.8 mb/d lower than the 2018 level.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 25 April 18
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - THEODOROS NTALAKOS
We had the opportunity to be part of Intertanko's Hellenic Mediterranean Panel last week in the SNFCC and to present an outlook on the tanker f ...
Tuesday, 24 April 18
IMPORTING INDONESIAN COAL MAKES SENSE FOR INDIAN COASTAL PLANTS EVEN WHEN IT IS COSTLIER THAN INDIAN - ECONOMIC TIMES
Rising Indonesian coal production and lower Chinese demand have pulled down Indonesian coal prices by 22% over the last 45 days, a trend that augur ...
Tuesday, 24 April 18
IMO AIMS TO HALVE GLOBAL SHIPPING EMISSIONS - BUT WHAT WILL IT COST? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Global bunker fuel costs could rise by up to US$60 billion annually from 2020, in a full compliance scenario, when the International Maritim ...
Tuesday, 24 April 18
TWO 56K-DWT OPEN HONG KONG AND SINGAPORE WERE FIXED FOR INDONESIA COAL TRIPS TO CHINA, AT $9,500 AND $11,000 RESPECTIVELY - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
This week has seen the Cape 5 timecharter weighted average almost double. Similarly, the Brazil to China ore rates climbed over $4.50, f ...
Wednesday, 18 April 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - STELIOS KOLLINTZAS
The return of traders and charterers from the Easter festivities came along with a slight increase in activity across the edible oil markets. Howev ...
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- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
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