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Thursday, 16 August 18
OIL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS - OPEC
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In July, the OPEC Reference Basket increased marginally by 5¢ m-o-m to settle at $73.27/b. Oil futures saw mixed movement over the month, while US oil inventories continued to drain, particularly in Cushing,
Oklahoma. ICE Brent averaged 99¢ m-o-m lower at $74.95/b, while NYMEX WTI rose $3.26 m-o-m to $70.58/b. Year-to-date (y-t-d), ICE Brent is $19.53 higher at $71.72/b compared to the same period a year earlier, while NYMEX WTI climbed $16.70 to $66.20/b. The ICE Brent/NYMEX WTI spread narrowed by $4.25/b to $4.37/b in July. Speculative net long positions ended the month lower, particularly for ICE Brent.
The Dubai market backwardated structure eased again, while Brent flipped into contango for the remainder of the year. In the US, WTI backwardation increased significantly for the second successive month. Apart from the USGC costal grades, the global sour discount to sweet crudes increased due to a surplus of sour crudes.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019, unchanged from the previous assessment. After a strong 2Q18, US growth was revised up by 0.1 pp in both 2018 and 2019, reaching 2.9% and 2.5%, respectively. Euro-zone growth slowed and the forecasts were revised down by 0.2 pp to 2% for 2018 and by 0.1 pp to 1.9% in 2019. Growth in Japan remains at 1.2% in 2018, and the same level is projected for 2019. India’s forecasts are unchanged at 7.3% for 2018 and 7.4% for 2019. After solid growth in 1H18, China’s growth forecast was revised up by 0.1 pp to now stand at 6.6% for 2018 and remains at 6.2% for 2019.
Growth in Brazil was revised down by 0.1 pp, reaching 1.6% in 2018, but a mild rebound to 2.1% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast remains unchanged at 1.8% in both 2018 and 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, oil demand growth is anticipated to increase by 1.64 mb/d, 20 tb/d lower than last month’s projections, mainly due to weaker-than-expected oil demand data from Latin America and the Middle East in 2Q18. Total oil demand is anticipated to reach 98.83 mb/d. For 2019, world oil demand is forecast to grow by 1.43 mb/d, also some 20 tb/d lower than last month’s assessment. Total world consumption is anticipated to reach 100.26 mb/d. The OECD region will contribute positively to oil demand growth, rising by 0.27 mb/d y-oy, yet with growth of 1.16 mb/d, non-OECD nations will account for the majority of growth expected.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 was revised up by 73 tb/d from the previous MOMR to average 59.62 mb/d, representing an increase of 2.08 mb/d y-o-y. The main reason for this upward revision was an adjustment for the Chinese supply forecast due to the higher-than-expected oil output in 1H18. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is projected to reach an average of 61.75 mb/d, indicating an upward revision by 106 tb/d, mostly due to a re-assessment of the Chinese supply forecast for the next year. However, y-o-y growth was revised up by only 34 tb/d, to average 2.13 mb/d, owing to downward revisions in the US and Australian supply forecasts. The US, Brazil, Canada, the UK, Kazakhstan, Australia and Malaysia are the main growth drivers; while Mexico and Norway are expected to see the largest declines. The 2019 forecast remains subject to many uncertainties. OPEC NGL production in 2018 and 2019 is expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In July, OPEC production increased by 41 tb/d to average 32.32 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
In July, US margins recorded solid losses as crack spreads for all products with the exception of fuel oil declined, due to weaker fundamentals and higher feedstock costs. Strong middle distillate stock builds and an all-time record breaking jet fuel output further pressured USGC refining margins. In Europe, product markets recorded moderate gains on the top and bottom of the barrel, supported by firm exports outweighing losses seen in the middle of the barrel. Meanwhile, product markets in Asia strengthened, supported by robust gasoline demand from India, lower fuel oil arrivals from Europe and lower crude prices, which led to reduced feedstock costs for refiners, while gasoil output in China hit new highs.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker spot freight rates declined on average in July. This was mainly on the back of the continued weak trend persisting in the market across all classes. VLCC spot freight rates declined on all reported routes, while Suexmax spot freight rates remained flat, suffering from limited activity in general. Aframax saw mixed freight rates; however, average rates went down, pressured by the drop seen in the Caribbean and despite a firmer market in the Mediterranean. Clean tanker average spot freight rates declined as a result of lower freights West of Suez. Generally, the market remained uneventful, with limited demand on tonnage.
Stock Movements
Preliminary data for June showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks fell by 12.8 mb m-o-m to stand at 2,822 mb. This was 197 mb lower than seen during the same time one year ago, and 33 mb below the latest five-year average. However, OECD commercial oil stocks remain 251 mb above the January 2014 level. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell in June to stand at 58.8 days, which is 2.1 days lower than the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, 0.6 mb/d lower than the 2017 level. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32 mb/d, around 0.8 mb/d lower than the 2018 level.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 11 April 18
CHINA UTILITIES PLAN NEW COAL IMPORT PRICE INDEX TO CURB VOLATILITY - REUTERS
China’s major utilities are preparing to launch their own coal price index for imports, an official at China Huaneng Group said, in a move th ...
Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most li ...
Tuesday, 10 April 18
BUMA GRANTED ADDITIONAL LOAN FACILITY FROM BTMU TO SUPPORT GROWTH
Press Release: PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. is pleased to announce that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama ("BUMA"), signed an a ...
Monday, 09 April 18
APRIL INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE DROPS TO LOWEST IN 2018
COALspot.com: According to latest ministerial decree, the Indonesian Coal Price Reference (HBA) decline 6.98 per cent in April 2018 compared to Mar ...
Friday, 06 April 18
TOP MINER BHP QUITS WORLD COAL ASSOCIATION OVER CLIMATE CLASH - BLOOMBERG
BHP Billiton Ltd. has severed ties with the World Coal Association over a clash of views on how to combat climate change, with the mining giant say ...
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- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
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