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Thursday, 16 August 18
OIL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS - OPEC
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In July, the OPEC Reference Basket increased marginally by 5¢ m-o-m to settle at $73.27/b. Oil futures saw mixed movement over the month, while US oil inventories continued to drain, particularly in Cushing,
Oklahoma. ICE Brent averaged 99¢ m-o-m lower at $74.95/b, while NYMEX WTI rose $3.26 m-o-m to $70.58/b. Year-to-date (y-t-d), ICE Brent is $19.53 higher at $71.72/b compared to the same period a year earlier, while NYMEX WTI climbed $16.70 to $66.20/b. The ICE Brent/NYMEX WTI spread narrowed by $4.25/b to $4.37/b in July. Speculative net long positions ended the month lower, particularly for ICE Brent.
The Dubai market backwardated structure eased again, while Brent flipped into contango for the remainder of the year. In the US, WTI backwardation increased significantly for the second successive month. Apart from the USGC costal grades, the global sour discount to sweet crudes increased due to a surplus of sour crudes.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019, unchanged from the previous assessment. After a strong 2Q18, US growth was revised up by 0.1 pp in both 2018 and 2019, reaching 2.9% and 2.5%, respectively. Euro-zone growth slowed and the forecasts were revised down by 0.2 pp to 2% for 2018 and by 0.1 pp to 1.9% in 2019. Growth in Japan remains at 1.2% in 2018, and the same level is projected for 2019. India’s forecasts are unchanged at 7.3% for 2018 and 7.4% for 2019. After solid growth in 1H18, China’s growth forecast was revised up by 0.1 pp to now stand at 6.6% for 2018 and remains at 6.2% for 2019.
Growth in Brazil was revised down by 0.1 pp, reaching 1.6% in 2018, but a mild rebound to 2.1% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast remains unchanged at 1.8% in both 2018 and 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, oil demand growth is anticipated to increase by 1.64 mb/d, 20 tb/d lower than last month’s projections, mainly due to weaker-than-expected oil demand data from Latin America and the Middle East in 2Q18. Total oil demand is anticipated to reach 98.83 mb/d. For 2019, world oil demand is forecast to grow by 1.43 mb/d, also some 20 tb/d lower than last month’s assessment. Total world consumption is anticipated to reach 100.26 mb/d. The OECD region will contribute positively to oil demand growth, rising by 0.27 mb/d y-oy, yet with growth of 1.16 mb/d, non-OECD nations will account for the majority of growth expected.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 was revised up by 73 tb/d from the previous MOMR to average 59.62 mb/d, representing an increase of 2.08 mb/d y-o-y. The main reason for this upward revision was an adjustment for the Chinese supply forecast due to the higher-than-expected oil output in 1H18. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is projected to reach an average of 61.75 mb/d, indicating an upward revision by 106 tb/d, mostly due to a re-assessment of the Chinese supply forecast for the next year. However, y-o-y growth was revised up by only 34 tb/d, to average 2.13 mb/d, owing to downward revisions in the US and Australian supply forecasts. The US, Brazil, Canada, the UK, Kazakhstan, Australia and Malaysia are the main growth drivers; while Mexico and Norway are expected to see the largest declines. The 2019 forecast remains subject to many uncertainties. OPEC NGL production in 2018 and 2019 is expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In July, OPEC production increased by 41 tb/d to average 32.32 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
In July, US margins recorded solid losses as crack spreads for all products with the exception of fuel oil declined, due to weaker fundamentals and higher feedstock costs. Strong middle distillate stock builds and an all-time record breaking jet fuel output further pressured USGC refining margins. In Europe, product markets recorded moderate gains on the top and bottom of the barrel, supported by firm exports outweighing losses seen in the middle of the barrel. Meanwhile, product markets in Asia strengthened, supported by robust gasoline demand from India, lower fuel oil arrivals from Europe and lower crude prices, which led to reduced feedstock costs for refiners, while gasoil output in China hit new highs.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker spot freight rates declined on average in July. This was mainly on the back of the continued weak trend persisting in the market across all classes. VLCC spot freight rates declined on all reported routes, while Suexmax spot freight rates remained flat, suffering from limited activity in general. Aframax saw mixed freight rates; however, average rates went down, pressured by the drop seen in the Caribbean and despite a firmer market in the Mediterranean. Clean tanker average spot freight rates declined as a result of lower freights West of Suez. Generally, the market remained uneventful, with limited demand on tonnage.
Stock Movements
Preliminary data for June showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks fell by 12.8 mb m-o-m to stand at 2,822 mb. This was 197 mb lower than seen during the same time one year ago, and 33 mb below the latest five-year average. However, OECD commercial oil stocks remain 251 mb above the January 2014 level. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell in June to stand at 58.8 days, which is 2.1 days lower than the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, 0.6 mb/d lower than the 2017 level. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32 mb/d, around 0.8 mb/d lower than the 2018 level.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 27 November 18
PANAMAX AND SUPRAMAX INDICES WITNESSED A DECLINE OF JUST BELOW 14% IN THEIR MEAN ON A MONTH-ON-MONTH COMPARISON - ALLIED SHIPPING
A month of sharp corrections and great asymmetries for the dry bulk sector, with the overall overview of the market shipping rapidly from a state o ...
Monday, 26 November 18
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN MARKET STALLED THIS WEEK WITH A BUILD-UP OF TONNAGE - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
It was a positive end to the week, with West Australia/China making significant gains and firing owners’ resolve. There was talk ...
Friday, 23 November 18
GOLDEN ENERGY'S POTENTIAL ACQUISITION OF STANMORE CREDIT POSITIVE - FITCH RATINGS
Golden Energy and Resources Limited's (GEAR, B+/Positive) potential acquisition of Stanmore Coal will help the company diversify its coal opera ...
Friday, 23 November 18
ASSOCIATION CALLS FOR REVISION OF DMO SCHEME FOR COAL - JP
The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (APBI) has called on the government to revise the domestic market obligation (DMO) scheme for coal, which re ...
Friday, 23 November 18
INDONESIA'S REVENUES FROM MINERAL AND COAL INCREASE TO US$ 2.858 BILLION - ANTARA
Indonesia`s non-tax state revenues from the mineral and coal sub-sector reached Rp 41.77 trillion (approximately US$ 2.858 Billion) as of Nov 16, 2 ...
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
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