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Thursday, 16 August 18
OIL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS - OPEC
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In July, the OPEC Reference Basket increased marginally by 5¢ m-o-m to settle at $73.27/b. Oil futures saw mixed movement over the month, while US oil inventories continued to drain, particularly in Cushing,
Oklahoma. ICE Brent averaged 99¢ m-o-m lower at $74.95/b, while NYMEX WTI rose $3.26 m-o-m to $70.58/b. Year-to-date (y-t-d), ICE Brent is $19.53 higher at $71.72/b compared to the same period a year earlier, while NYMEX WTI climbed $16.70 to $66.20/b. The ICE Brent/NYMEX WTI spread narrowed by $4.25/b to $4.37/b in July. Speculative net long positions ended the month lower, particularly for ICE Brent.
The Dubai market backwardated structure eased again, while Brent flipped into contango for the remainder of the year. In the US, WTI backwardation increased significantly for the second successive month. Apart from the USGC costal grades, the global sour discount to sweet crudes increased due to a surplus of sour crudes.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019, unchanged from the previous assessment. After a strong 2Q18, US growth was revised up by 0.1 pp in both 2018 and 2019, reaching 2.9% and 2.5%, respectively. Euro-zone growth slowed and the forecasts were revised down by 0.2 pp to 2% for 2018 and by 0.1 pp to 1.9% in 2019. Growth in Japan remains at 1.2% in 2018, and the same level is projected for 2019. India’s forecasts are unchanged at 7.3% for 2018 and 7.4% for 2019. After solid growth in 1H18, China’s growth forecast was revised up by 0.1 pp to now stand at 6.6% for 2018 and remains at 6.2% for 2019.
Growth in Brazil was revised down by 0.1 pp, reaching 1.6% in 2018, but a mild rebound to 2.1% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast remains unchanged at 1.8% in both 2018 and 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, oil demand growth is anticipated to increase by 1.64 mb/d, 20 tb/d lower than last month’s projections, mainly due to weaker-than-expected oil demand data from Latin America and the Middle East in 2Q18. Total oil demand is anticipated to reach 98.83 mb/d. For 2019, world oil demand is forecast to grow by 1.43 mb/d, also some 20 tb/d lower than last month’s assessment. Total world consumption is anticipated to reach 100.26 mb/d. The OECD region will contribute positively to oil demand growth, rising by 0.27 mb/d y-oy, yet with growth of 1.16 mb/d, non-OECD nations will account for the majority of growth expected.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 was revised up by 73 tb/d from the previous MOMR to average 59.62 mb/d, representing an increase of 2.08 mb/d y-o-y. The main reason for this upward revision was an adjustment for the Chinese supply forecast due to the higher-than-expected oil output in 1H18. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is projected to reach an average of 61.75 mb/d, indicating an upward revision by 106 tb/d, mostly due to a re-assessment of the Chinese supply forecast for the next year. However, y-o-y growth was revised up by only 34 tb/d, to average 2.13 mb/d, owing to downward revisions in the US and Australian supply forecasts. The US, Brazil, Canada, the UK, Kazakhstan, Australia and Malaysia are the main growth drivers; while Mexico and Norway are expected to see the largest declines. The 2019 forecast remains subject to many uncertainties. OPEC NGL production in 2018 and 2019 is expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In July, OPEC production increased by 41 tb/d to average 32.32 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
In July, US margins recorded solid losses as crack spreads for all products with the exception of fuel oil declined, due to weaker fundamentals and higher feedstock costs. Strong middle distillate stock builds and an all-time record breaking jet fuel output further pressured USGC refining margins. In Europe, product markets recorded moderate gains on the top and bottom of the barrel, supported by firm exports outweighing losses seen in the middle of the barrel. Meanwhile, product markets in Asia strengthened, supported by robust gasoline demand from India, lower fuel oil arrivals from Europe and lower crude prices, which led to reduced feedstock costs for refiners, while gasoil output in China hit new highs.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker spot freight rates declined on average in July. This was mainly on the back of the continued weak trend persisting in the market across all classes. VLCC spot freight rates declined on all reported routes, while Suexmax spot freight rates remained flat, suffering from limited activity in general. Aframax saw mixed freight rates; however, average rates went down, pressured by the drop seen in the Caribbean and despite a firmer market in the Mediterranean. Clean tanker average spot freight rates declined as a result of lower freights West of Suez. Generally, the market remained uneventful, with limited demand on tonnage.
Stock Movements
Preliminary data for June showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks fell by 12.8 mb m-o-m to stand at 2,822 mb. This was 197 mb lower than seen during the same time one year ago, and 33 mb below the latest five-year average. However, OECD commercial oil stocks remain 251 mb above the January 2014 level. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell in June to stand at 58.8 days, which is 2.1 days lower than the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, 0.6 mb/d lower than the 2017 level. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32 mb/d, around 0.8 mb/d lower than the 2018 level.
Source: OPEC
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Monday, 19 November 18
SUPRAMAX: THE BSI CONTINUED TO FALL LAST WEEK, ESPECIALLY THE ASIAN ROUTES - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
After a cut throat couple of weeks, the market finally appeared to have found a floor and rates ticked up. Those analysts that predict ...
Sunday, 18 November 18
COAL STOCKS IN A THIRD OF NTPC PLANTS CLOSE TO NIL - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Coal supply shortage continues to haunt NTPC, the country’s largest power generator, with latest government data showing 31% of the company&r ...
Thursday, 15 November 18
OIL MARKET REPORT: HEEDING THE WARNINGS - IEA
In last month’s Report, we noted that since the middle of the year oil supply had increased sharply, with gains in the Middle East, Russia an ...
Wednesday, 14 November 18
BIMCO ADOPTS 2020 BUNKER CLAUSES
BIMCO has developed two 2020 bunker clauses that deal with general compliance and the transitional period for an early December release.
...
Wednesday, 14 November 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
The shipping industry is going through an interesting period across all markets. Since the end of last year, the Dry Baltic Index has been showing ...
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- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
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