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Thursday, 16 August 18
OIL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS - OPEC
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In July, the OPEC Reference Basket increased marginally by 5¢ m-o-m to settle at $73.27/b. Oil futures saw mixed movement over the month, while US oil inventories continued to drain, particularly in Cushing,
Oklahoma. ICE Brent averaged 99¢ m-o-m lower at $74.95/b, while NYMEX WTI rose $3.26 m-o-m to $70.58/b. Year-to-date (y-t-d), ICE Brent is $19.53 higher at $71.72/b compared to the same period a year earlier, while NYMEX WTI climbed $16.70 to $66.20/b. The ICE Brent/NYMEX WTI spread narrowed by $4.25/b to $4.37/b in July. Speculative net long positions ended the month lower, particularly for ICE Brent.
The Dubai market backwardated structure eased again, while Brent flipped into contango for the remainder of the year. In the US, WTI backwardation increased significantly for the second successive month. Apart from the USGC costal grades, the global sour discount to sweet crudes increased due to a surplus of sour crudes.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019, unchanged from the previous assessment. After a strong 2Q18, US growth was revised up by 0.1 pp in both 2018 and 2019, reaching 2.9% and 2.5%, respectively. Euro-zone growth slowed and the forecasts were revised down by 0.2 pp to 2% for 2018 and by 0.1 pp to 1.9% in 2019. Growth in Japan remains at 1.2% in 2018, and the same level is projected for 2019. India’s forecasts are unchanged at 7.3% for 2018 and 7.4% for 2019. After solid growth in 1H18, China’s growth forecast was revised up by 0.1 pp to now stand at 6.6% for 2018 and remains at 6.2% for 2019.
Growth in Brazil was revised down by 0.1 pp, reaching 1.6% in 2018, but a mild rebound to 2.1% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast remains unchanged at 1.8% in both 2018 and 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, oil demand growth is anticipated to increase by 1.64 mb/d, 20 tb/d lower than last month’s projections, mainly due to weaker-than-expected oil demand data from Latin America and the Middle East in 2Q18. Total oil demand is anticipated to reach 98.83 mb/d. For 2019, world oil demand is forecast to grow by 1.43 mb/d, also some 20 tb/d lower than last month’s assessment. Total world consumption is anticipated to reach 100.26 mb/d. The OECD region will contribute positively to oil demand growth, rising by 0.27 mb/d y-oy, yet with growth of 1.16 mb/d, non-OECD nations will account for the majority of growth expected.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 was revised up by 73 tb/d from the previous MOMR to average 59.62 mb/d, representing an increase of 2.08 mb/d y-o-y. The main reason for this upward revision was an adjustment for the Chinese supply forecast due to the higher-than-expected oil output in 1H18. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is projected to reach an average of 61.75 mb/d, indicating an upward revision by 106 tb/d, mostly due to a re-assessment of the Chinese supply forecast for the next year. However, y-o-y growth was revised up by only 34 tb/d, to average 2.13 mb/d, owing to downward revisions in the US and Australian supply forecasts. The US, Brazil, Canada, the UK, Kazakhstan, Australia and Malaysia are the main growth drivers; while Mexico and Norway are expected to see the largest declines. The 2019 forecast remains subject to many uncertainties. OPEC NGL production in 2018 and 2019 is expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In July, OPEC production increased by 41 tb/d to average 32.32 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
In July, US margins recorded solid losses as crack spreads for all products with the exception of fuel oil declined, due to weaker fundamentals and higher feedstock costs. Strong middle distillate stock builds and an all-time record breaking jet fuel output further pressured USGC refining margins. In Europe, product markets recorded moderate gains on the top and bottom of the barrel, supported by firm exports outweighing losses seen in the middle of the barrel. Meanwhile, product markets in Asia strengthened, supported by robust gasoline demand from India, lower fuel oil arrivals from Europe and lower crude prices, which led to reduced feedstock costs for refiners, while gasoil output in China hit new highs.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker spot freight rates declined on average in July. This was mainly on the back of the continued weak trend persisting in the market across all classes. VLCC spot freight rates declined on all reported routes, while Suexmax spot freight rates remained flat, suffering from limited activity in general. Aframax saw mixed freight rates; however, average rates went down, pressured by the drop seen in the Caribbean and despite a firmer market in the Mediterranean. Clean tanker average spot freight rates declined as a result of lower freights West of Suez. Generally, the market remained uneventful, with limited demand on tonnage.
Stock Movements
Preliminary data for June showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks fell by 12.8 mb m-o-m to stand at 2,822 mb. This was 197 mb lower than seen during the same time one year ago, and 33 mb below the latest five-year average. However, OECD commercial oil stocks remain 251 mb above the January 2014 level. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell in June to stand at 58.8 days, which is 2.1 days lower than the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, 0.6 mb/d lower than the 2017 level. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32 mb/d, around 0.8 mb/d lower than the 2018 level.
Source: OPEC
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Thursday, 22 November 18
SHUT OUT OF CHINA, U.S. COAL EXPORTERS FIND FAVOUR IN INDIA, FOR NOW - REUTERS
U.S. coal exporters have effectively lost a promising market in China since the imposition of tariffs as part of the ongoing trade dispute, but so ...
Wednesday, 21 November 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - DIMITRIS KOURTESIS
Halfway through the fourth and last quarter of the year, we spot a significant change in freight rates for tankers trading dirty, as well as on the ...
Tuesday, 20 November 18
FREIGHT RATES IN THE CRUDE OIL MARKET HAVE ALREADY PICKED UP OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS - YIANNIS VAMVAKAS
Current geopolitical developments between Iran and the US, which have led the latter to re-impose its sanctions, have significantly affected oil pr ...
Tuesday, 20 November 18
GOLDEN ENERGY AND RESOURCES LEADS A$249M BID FOR AUSTRALIA-LISTED STANMORE COAL - THE STRAITS TIMES
Singapore-listed Golden Energy and Resources (GEAR) is leading deals worth up to A$249 million (S$250 million) to acquire Australia-listed Stanmore ...
Monday, 19 November 18
INDONESIA'S LEADING EIGHT COAL MINER'S COAL MINING CONTRACTS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPIRE BETWEEN YEAR 2019 - 2025
The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) said, eight Coal Contract of Works (CCoW) will expected to expire between 2019 to 2026, Liputan ...
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Coal Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
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