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Thursday, 16 August 18
OIL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS - OPEC
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In July, the OPEC Reference Basket increased marginally by 5¢ m-o-m to settle at $73.27/b. Oil futures saw mixed movement over the month, while US oil inventories continued to drain, particularly in Cushing,
Oklahoma. ICE Brent averaged 99¢ m-o-m lower at $74.95/b, while NYMEX WTI rose $3.26 m-o-m to $70.58/b. Year-to-date (y-t-d), ICE Brent is $19.53 higher at $71.72/b compared to the same period a year earlier, while NYMEX WTI climbed $16.70 to $66.20/b. The ICE Brent/NYMEX WTI spread narrowed by $4.25/b to $4.37/b in July. Speculative net long positions ended the month lower, particularly for ICE Brent.
The Dubai market backwardated structure eased again, while Brent flipped into contango for the remainder of the year. In the US, WTI backwardation increased significantly for the second successive month. Apart from the USGC costal grades, the global sour discount to sweet crudes increased due to a surplus of sour crudes.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019, unchanged from the previous assessment. After a strong 2Q18, US growth was revised up by 0.1 pp in both 2018 and 2019, reaching 2.9% and 2.5%, respectively. Euro-zone growth slowed and the forecasts were revised down by 0.2 pp to 2% for 2018 and by 0.1 pp to 1.9% in 2019. Growth in Japan remains at 1.2% in 2018, and the same level is projected for 2019. India’s forecasts are unchanged at 7.3% for 2018 and 7.4% for 2019. After solid growth in 1H18, China’s growth forecast was revised up by 0.1 pp to now stand at 6.6% for 2018 and remains at 6.2% for 2019.
Growth in Brazil was revised down by 0.1 pp, reaching 1.6% in 2018, but a mild rebound to 2.1% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast remains unchanged at 1.8% in both 2018 and 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, oil demand growth is anticipated to increase by 1.64 mb/d, 20 tb/d lower than last month’s projections, mainly due to weaker-than-expected oil demand data from Latin America and the Middle East in 2Q18. Total oil demand is anticipated to reach 98.83 mb/d. For 2019, world oil demand is forecast to grow by 1.43 mb/d, also some 20 tb/d lower than last month’s assessment. Total world consumption is anticipated to reach 100.26 mb/d. The OECD region will contribute positively to oil demand growth, rising by 0.27 mb/d y-oy, yet with growth of 1.16 mb/d, non-OECD nations will account for the majority of growth expected.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 was revised up by 73 tb/d from the previous MOMR to average 59.62 mb/d, representing an increase of 2.08 mb/d y-o-y. The main reason for this upward revision was an adjustment for the Chinese supply forecast due to the higher-than-expected oil output in 1H18. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is projected to reach an average of 61.75 mb/d, indicating an upward revision by 106 tb/d, mostly due to a re-assessment of the Chinese supply forecast for the next year. However, y-o-y growth was revised up by only 34 tb/d, to average 2.13 mb/d, owing to downward revisions in the US and Australian supply forecasts. The US, Brazil, Canada, the UK, Kazakhstan, Australia and Malaysia are the main growth drivers; while Mexico and Norway are expected to see the largest declines. The 2019 forecast remains subject to many uncertainties. OPEC NGL production in 2018 and 2019 is expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In July, OPEC production increased by 41 tb/d to average 32.32 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
In July, US margins recorded solid losses as crack spreads for all products with the exception of fuel oil declined, due to weaker fundamentals and higher feedstock costs. Strong middle distillate stock builds and an all-time record breaking jet fuel output further pressured USGC refining margins. In Europe, product markets recorded moderate gains on the top and bottom of the barrel, supported by firm exports outweighing losses seen in the middle of the barrel. Meanwhile, product markets in Asia strengthened, supported by robust gasoline demand from India, lower fuel oil arrivals from Europe and lower crude prices, which led to reduced feedstock costs for refiners, while gasoil output in China hit new highs.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker spot freight rates declined on average in July. This was mainly on the back of the continued weak trend persisting in the market across all classes. VLCC spot freight rates declined on all reported routes, while Suexmax spot freight rates remained flat, suffering from limited activity in general. Aframax saw mixed freight rates; however, average rates went down, pressured by the drop seen in the Caribbean and despite a firmer market in the Mediterranean. Clean tanker average spot freight rates declined as a result of lower freights West of Suez. Generally, the market remained uneventful, with limited demand on tonnage.
Stock Movements
Preliminary data for June showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks fell by 12.8 mb m-o-m to stand at 2,822 mb. This was 197 mb lower than seen during the same time one year ago, and 33 mb below the latest five-year average. However, OECD commercial oil stocks remain 251 mb above the January 2014 level. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell in June to stand at 58.8 days, which is 2.1 days lower than the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, 0.6 mb/d lower than the 2017 level. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32 mb/d, around 0.8 mb/d lower than the 2018 level.
Source: OPEC
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Sunday, 02 December 18
TRADE WAR LEADING TO HEADWINDS FOR THE FRAGILE DRY BULK RECOVERY - PETER SAND, BIMCO
The first twelve weeks of the 2018/19 marketing year, which started on 1 September 2018, have painted a dire picture for US soya bean exports which ...
Friday, 30 November 18
GOVT MULLS REQUIRING MINERS TO TURN COAL INTO GAS - THE JAKARTA POST
The government is considering requiring all coal miners to turn the raw commodity into dimethylether (DME) as a substitute for liquefied petroleum ...
Friday, 30 November 18
SUPRAMAX: N. CHINA TO INDIA OR SE ASIA SUPRAS ARE GETTING PAID AROUND US$ 6000 - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Sharp rise in spot activity and income, admittedly from very low levels, for the big ships. West Australia/China and Brazil/Far East b ...
Thursday, 29 November 18
NEW IMSBC CODE REQUIREMENTS AIM TO CONTROL LIQUEFACTION OF COAL CARGOES - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The International Maritime Solid Bulk Cargoes (IMSBC) Code describes coal as a natural, solid, combustible material consi ...
Wednesday, 28 November 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE LAIOS
Last week I had the privilege to attend the SingularityU Greece Summit, in Athens. It was a privilege because you do not often have the chance to s ...
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The University of Queensland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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