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Thursday, 16 August 18
OIL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS - OPEC
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In July, the OPEC Reference Basket increased marginally by 5¢ m-o-m to settle at $73.27/b. Oil futures saw mixed movement over the month, while US oil inventories continued to drain, particularly in Cushing,
Oklahoma. ICE Brent averaged 99¢ m-o-m lower at $74.95/b, while NYMEX WTI rose $3.26 m-o-m to $70.58/b. Year-to-date (y-t-d), ICE Brent is $19.53 higher at $71.72/b compared to the same period a year earlier, while NYMEX WTI climbed $16.70 to $66.20/b. The ICE Brent/NYMEX WTI spread narrowed by $4.25/b to $4.37/b in July. Speculative net long positions ended the month lower, particularly for ICE Brent.
The Dubai market backwardated structure eased again, while Brent flipped into contango for the remainder of the year. In the US, WTI backwardation increased significantly for the second successive month. Apart from the USGC costal grades, the global sour discount to sweet crudes increased due to a surplus of sour crudes.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019, unchanged from the previous assessment. After a strong 2Q18, US growth was revised up by 0.1 pp in both 2018 and 2019, reaching 2.9% and 2.5%, respectively. Euro-zone growth slowed and the forecasts were revised down by 0.2 pp to 2% for 2018 and by 0.1 pp to 1.9% in 2019. Growth in Japan remains at 1.2% in 2018, and the same level is projected for 2019. India’s forecasts are unchanged at 7.3% for 2018 and 7.4% for 2019. After solid growth in 1H18, China’s growth forecast was revised up by 0.1 pp to now stand at 6.6% for 2018 and remains at 6.2% for 2019.
Growth in Brazil was revised down by 0.1 pp, reaching 1.6% in 2018, but a mild rebound to 2.1% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast remains unchanged at 1.8% in both 2018 and 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, oil demand growth is anticipated to increase by 1.64 mb/d, 20 tb/d lower than last month’s projections, mainly due to weaker-than-expected oil demand data from Latin America and the Middle East in 2Q18. Total oil demand is anticipated to reach 98.83 mb/d. For 2019, world oil demand is forecast to grow by 1.43 mb/d, also some 20 tb/d lower than last month’s assessment. Total world consumption is anticipated to reach 100.26 mb/d. The OECD region will contribute positively to oil demand growth, rising by 0.27 mb/d y-oy, yet with growth of 1.16 mb/d, non-OECD nations will account for the majority of growth expected.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 was revised up by 73 tb/d from the previous MOMR to average 59.62 mb/d, representing an increase of 2.08 mb/d y-o-y. The main reason for this upward revision was an adjustment for the Chinese supply forecast due to the higher-than-expected oil output in 1H18. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is projected to reach an average of 61.75 mb/d, indicating an upward revision by 106 tb/d, mostly due to a re-assessment of the Chinese supply forecast for the next year. However, y-o-y growth was revised up by only 34 tb/d, to average 2.13 mb/d, owing to downward revisions in the US and Australian supply forecasts. The US, Brazil, Canada, the UK, Kazakhstan, Australia and Malaysia are the main growth drivers; while Mexico and Norway are expected to see the largest declines. The 2019 forecast remains subject to many uncertainties. OPEC NGL production in 2018 and 2019 is expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In July, OPEC production increased by 41 tb/d to average 32.32 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
In July, US margins recorded solid losses as crack spreads for all products with the exception of fuel oil declined, due to weaker fundamentals and higher feedstock costs. Strong middle distillate stock builds and an all-time record breaking jet fuel output further pressured USGC refining margins. In Europe, product markets recorded moderate gains on the top and bottom of the barrel, supported by firm exports outweighing losses seen in the middle of the barrel. Meanwhile, product markets in Asia strengthened, supported by robust gasoline demand from India, lower fuel oil arrivals from Europe and lower crude prices, which led to reduced feedstock costs for refiners, while gasoil output in China hit new highs.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker spot freight rates declined on average in July. This was mainly on the back of the continued weak trend persisting in the market across all classes. VLCC spot freight rates declined on all reported routes, while Suexmax spot freight rates remained flat, suffering from limited activity in general. Aframax saw mixed freight rates; however, average rates went down, pressured by the drop seen in the Caribbean and despite a firmer market in the Mediterranean. Clean tanker average spot freight rates declined as a result of lower freights West of Suez. Generally, the market remained uneventful, with limited demand on tonnage.
Stock Movements
Preliminary data for June showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks fell by 12.8 mb m-o-m to stand at 2,822 mb. This was 197 mb lower than seen during the same time one year ago, and 33 mb below the latest five-year average. However, OECD commercial oil stocks remain 251 mb above the January 2014 level. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell in June to stand at 58.8 days, which is 2.1 days lower than the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, 0.6 mb/d lower than the 2017 level. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32 mb/d, around 0.8 mb/d lower than the 2018 level.
Source: OPEC
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Thursday, 06 December 18
CHINA REVISES MANAGEMENT RULES ON ESTABLISHMENT OF FULLY FOREIGN-OWNED SHIPPING BUSINESSES - XINHUA
Foreign shipping companies will find it easier to establish wholly-owned subsidiaries in China thanks to a revised regulation due to take effect on ...
Wednesday, 05 December 18
WORLD COAL PRICES FALL, WITH INDONESIA BENCHMARK FOR DECEMBER, ENDING AT LOWEST SINCE JUNE 2018
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Wednesday, 05 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
Is the rise in crude carrier rates driven only by seasonality, or is the recent positive reversal signaling the end of challenging days for the mar ...
Monday, 03 December 18
WCA'S ENGAGEMENT AT COP24 IN KATOWICE - WCA
The 24th Conference of the Parties (COP) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) will take place from the 2-14 December 2018 in K ...
Monday, 03 December 18
SUPRAMAX: FIXED DELIVERY KALIMANTAN TO WEST COAST INDIA, AT $11000 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A roller-coaster week for the big ships with hopes soaring at the start for a mini last quarter revival, only to be dashed as the week ...
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- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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