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Thursday, 16 August 18
OIL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS - OPEC
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In July, the OPEC Reference Basket increased marginally by 5¢ m-o-m to settle at $73.27/b. Oil futures saw mixed movement over the month, while US oil inventories continued to drain, particularly in Cushing,
Oklahoma. ICE Brent averaged 99¢ m-o-m lower at $74.95/b, while NYMEX WTI rose $3.26 m-o-m to $70.58/b. Year-to-date (y-t-d), ICE Brent is $19.53 higher at $71.72/b compared to the same period a year earlier, while NYMEX WTI climbed $16.70 to $66.20/b. The ICE Brent/NYMEX WTI spread narrowed by $4.25/b to $4.37/b in July. Speculative net long positions ended the month lower, particularly for ICE Brent.
The Dubai market backwardated structure eased again, while Brent flipped into contango for the remainder of the year. In the US, WTI backwardation increased significantly for the second successive month. Apart from the USGC costal grades, the global sour discount to sweet crudes increased due to a surplus of sour crudes.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019, unchanged from the previous assessment. After a strong 2Q18, US growth was revised up by 0.1 pp in both 2018 and 2019, reaching 2.9% and 2.5%, respectively. Euro-zone growth slowed and the forecasts were revised down by 0.2 pp to 2% for 2018 and by 0.1 pp to 1.9% in 2019. Growth in Japan remains at 1.2% in 2018, and the same level is projected for 2019. India’s forecasts are unchanged at 7.3% for 2018 and 7.4% for 2019. After solid growth in 1H18, China’s growth forecast was revised up by 0.1 pp to now stand at 6.6% for 2018 and remains at 6.2% for 2019.
Growth in Brazil was revised down by 0.1 pp, reaching 1.6% in 2018, but a mild rebound to 2.1% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast remains unchanged at 1.8% in both 2018 and 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, oil demand growth is anticipated to increase by 1.64 mb/d, 20 tb/d lower than last month’s projections, mainly due to weaker-than-expected oil demand data from Latin America and the Middle East in 2Q18. Total oil demand is anticipated to reach 98.83 mb/d. For 2019, world oil demand is forecast to grow by 1.43 mb/d, also some 20 tb/d lower than last month’s assessment. Total world consumption is anticipated to reach 100.26 mb/d. The OECD region will contribute positively to oil demand growth, rising by 0.27 mb/d y-oy, yet with growth of 1.16 mb/d, non-OECD nations will account for the majority of growth expected.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 was revised up by 73 tb/d from the previous MOMR to average 59.62 mb/d, representing an increase of 2.08 mb/d y-o-y. The main reason for this upward revision was an adjustment for the Chinese supply forecast due to the higher-than-expected oil output in 1H18. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is projected to reach an average of 61.75 mb/d, indicating an upward revision by 106 tb/d, mostly due to a re-assessment of the Chinese supply forecast for the next year. However, y-o-y growth was revised up by only 34 tb/d, to average 2.13 mb/d, owing to downward revisions in the US and Australian supply forecasts. The US, Brazil, Canada, the UK, Kazakhstan, Australia and Malaysia are the main growth drivers; while Mexico and Norway are expected to see the largest declines. The 2019 forecast remains subject to many uncertainties. OPEC NGL production in 2018 and 2019 is expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In July, OPEC production increased by 41 tb/d to average 32.32 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
In July, US margins recorded solid losses as crack spreads for all products with the exception of fuel oil declined, due to weaker fundamentals and higher feedstock costs. Strong middle distillate stock builds and an all-time record breaking jet fuel output further pressured USGC refining margins. In Europe, product markets recorded moderate gains on the top and bottom of the barrel, supported by firm exports outweighing losses seen in the middle of the barrel. Meanwhile, product markets in Asia strengthened, supported by robust gasoline demand from India, lower fuel oil arrivals from Europe and lower crude prices, which led to reduced feedstock costs for refiners, while gasoil output in China hit new highs.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker spot freight rates declined on average in July. This was mainly on the back of the continued weak trend persisting in the market across all classes. VLCC spot freight rates declined on all reported routes, while Suexmax spot freight rates remained flat, suffering from limited activity in general. Aframax saw mixed freight rates; however, average rates went down, pressured by the drop seen in the Caribbean and despite a firmer market in the Mediterranean. Clean tanker average spot freight rates declined as a result of lower freights West of Suez. Generally, the market remained uneventful, with limited demand on tonnage.
Stock Movements
Preliminary data for June showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks fell by 12.8 mb m-o-m to stand at 2,822 mb. This was 197 mb lower than seen during the same time one year ago, and 33 mb below the latest five-year average. However, OECD commercial oil stocks remain 251 mb above the January 2014 level. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell in June to stand at 58.8 days, which is 2.1 days lower than the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, 0.6 mb/d lower than the 2017 level. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32 mb/d, around 0.8 mb/d lower than the 2018 level.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 14 December 18
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 320,000 MT OF LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 4,300 kcal/kg NCV coal per ...
Friday, 14 December 18
KOSPO INVITES BIDS FOR 1,177,000 METRIC TONS OF COAL FOR Q1' 19 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 701,000 MT of min 5,600 kcal/kg NCV coal and ...
Friday, 14 December 18
COAL IMPORT TO BE CHECKED BY RISING DOMESTIC PRODUCTION - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
The government’s effort to increase domestic coal production and power demand falling with the onset of the winters will check coal imports, ...
Thursday, 13 December 18
STRAITS AFFECTED BY TERRITORIAL DISPUTE BETWEEN SINGAPORE AND MALAYSIA - THE STANDARD CLUB
A recent territorial dispute has occurred between Singapore and Malaysia involving the Straits of Johor.
The Malaysian Attorney Gene ...
Wednesday, 12 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - CHRISTOPHER WHITTY
China’s monthly iron ore imports dropped for the first time this year joined by declines in copper and soybeans as economic growth slows in t ...
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- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
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