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Thursday, 16 August 18
OIL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS - OPEC
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In July, the OPEC Reference Basket increased marginally by 5¢ m-o-m to settle at $73.27/b. Oil futures saw mixed movement over the month, while US oil inventories continued to drain, particularly in Cushing,
Oklahoma. ICE Brent averaged 99¢ m-o-m lower at $74.95/b, while NYMEX WTI rose $3.26 m-o-m to $70.58/b. Year-to-date (y-t-d), ICE Brent is $19.53 higher at $71.72/b compared to the same period a year earlier, while NYMEX WTI climbed $16.70 to $66.20/b. The ICE Brent/NYMEX WTI spread narrowed by $4.25/b to $4.37/b in July. Speculative net long positions ended the month lower, particularly for ICE Brent.
The Dubai market backwardated structure eased again, while Brent flipped into contango for the remainder of the year. In the US, WTI backwardation increased significantly for the second successive month. Apart from the USGC costal grades, the global sour discount to sweet crudes increased due to a surplus of sour crudes.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019, unchanged from the previous assessment. After a strong 2Q18, US growth was revised up by 0.1 pp in both 2018 and 2019, reaching 2.9% and 2.5%, respectively. Euro-zone growth slowed and the forecasts were revised down by 0.2 pp to 2% for 2018 and by 0.1 pp to 1.9% in 2019. Growth in Japan remains at 1.2% in 2018, and the same level is projected for 2019. India’s forecasts are unchanged at 7.3% for 2018 and 7.4% for 2019. After solid growth in 1H18, China’s growth forecast was revised up by 0.1 pp to now stand at 6.6% for 2018 and remains at 6.2% for 2019.
Growth in Brazil was revised down by 0.1 pp, reaching 1.6% in 2018, but a mild rebound to 2.1% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast remains unchanged at 1.8% in both 2018 and 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, oil demand growth is anticipated to increase by 1.64 mb/d, 20 tb/d lower than last month’s projections, mainly due to weaker-than-expected oil demand data from Latin America and the Middle East in 2Q18. Total oil demand is anticipated to reach 98.83 mb/d. For 2019, world oil demand is forecast to grow by 1.43 mb/d, also some 20 tb/d lower than last month’s assessment. Total world consumption is anticipated to reach 100.26 mb/d. The OECD region will contribute positively to oil demand growth, rising by 0.27 mb/d y-oy, yet with growth of 1.16 mb/d, non-OECD nations will account for the majority of growth expected.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 was revised up by 73 tb/d from the previous MOMR to average 59.62 mb/d, representing an increase of 2.08 mb/d y-o-y. The main reason for this upward revision was an adjustment for the Chinese supply forecast due to the higher-than-expected oil output in 1H18. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is projected to reach an average of 61.75 mb/d, indicating an upward revision by 106 tb/d, mostly due to a re-assessment of the Chinese supply forecast for the next year. However, y-o-y growth was revised up by only 34 tb/d, to average 2.13 mb/d, owing to downward revisions in the US and Australian supply forecasts. The US, Brazil, Canada, the UK, Kazakhstan, Australia and Malaysia are the main growth drivers; while Mexico and Norway are expected to see the largest declines. The 2019 forecast remains subject to many uncertainties. OPEC NGL production in 2018 and 2019 is expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In July, OPEC production increased by 41 tb/d to average 32.32 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
In July, US margins recorded solid losses as crack spreads for all products with the exception of fuel oil declined, due to weaker fundamentals and higher feedstock costs. Strong middle distillate stock builds and an all-time record breaking jet fuel output further pressured USGC refining margins. In Europe, product markets recorded moderate gains on the top and bottom of the barrel, supported by firm exports outweighing losses seen in the middle of the barrel. Meanwhile, product markets in Asia strengthened, supported by robust gasoline demand from India, lower fuel oil arrivals from Europe and lower crude prices, which led to reduced feedstock costs for refiners, while gasoil output in China hit new highs.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker spot freight rates declined on average in July. This was mainly on the back of the continued weak trend persisting in the market across all classes. VLCC spot freight rates declined on all reported routes, while Suexmax spot freight rates remained flat, suffering from limited activity in general. Aframax saw mixed freight rates; however, average rates went down, pressured by the drop seen in the Caribbean and despite a firmer market in the Mediterranean. Clean tanker average spot freight rates declined as a result of lower freights West of Suez. Generally, the market remained uneventful, with limited demand on tonnage.
Stock Movements
Preliminary data for June showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks fell by 12.8 mb m-o-m to stand at 2,822 mb. This was 197 mb lower than seen during the same time one year ago, and 33 mb below the latest five-year average. However, OECD commercial oil stocks remain 251 mb above the January 2014 level. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell in June to stand at 58.8 days, which is 2.1 days lower than the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, 0.6 mb/d lower than the 2017 level. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32 mb/d, around 0.8 mb/d lower than the 2018 level.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 18 December 18
COAL OUTLOOK BULLISH DESPITE WEAK CHINESE IMPORT DATA - HEREN, ICIS
Coal prices may appreciate over the remainder of 2018 even despite recent data showing falling imports from the world’s largest producer and ...
Tuesday, 18 December 18
TOBA BARA ACQUIRES SHARES OF PT BATU HITAM PERKASA
PT Toba Bara Sejahtra Tbk, through its subsidiary PT Toba Bara Energi (“TBE”), has acquired shares ...
Monday, 17 December 18
SUPRAMAX THERE WAS STRONGER DEMAND FROM SOUTHEAST ASIA, WITH MORE COAL BEING SHIPPED - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A positive end to last week after a somewhat uncertain start as some gains made were eroded. Rates recovered later for West Australia/ ...
Monday, 17 December 18
SOUTH KOREA STATE-OWNED UTILITY KOREA EAST-WEST POWER CO. LTD ISSUED A TENDER FOR MAX 3.220 MILLION TONS OF 4200 TO 5900 NAR COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea East-West Power Co. Ltd (EWP) issued a tender for max 3,220,000 Metric Tons of coal to be loade ...
Saturday, 15 December 18
COMING CHANGES IN MARINE FUEL SULFUR LIMITS WILL AFFECT GLOBAL OIL MARKETS - EIA
International regulations limiting sulfur in fuels for ocean-going vessels, set to take effect in January 2020, have implications for vessel operat ...
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- The University of Queensland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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