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Thursday, 16 August 18
OIL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS - OPEC
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In July, the OPEC Reference Basket increased marginally by 5¢ m-o-m to settle at $73.27/b. Oil futures saw mixed movement over the month, while US oil inventories continued to drain, particularly in Cushing,
Oklahoma. ICE Brent averaged 99¢ m-o-m lower at $74.95/b, while NYMEX WTI rose $3.26 m-o-m to $70.58/b. Year-to-date (y-t-d), ICE Brent is $19.53 higher at $71.72/b compared to the same period a year earlier, while NYMEX WTI climbed $16.70 to $66.20/b. The ICE Brent/NYMEX WTI spread narrowed by $4.25/b to $4.37/b in July. Speculative net long positions ended the month lower, particularly for ICE Brent.
The Dubai market backwardated structure eased again, while Brent flipped into contango for the remainder of the year. In the US, WTI backwardation increased significantly for the second successive month. Apart from the USGC costal grades, the global sour discount to sweet crudes increased due to a surplus of sour crudes.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019, unchanged from the previous assessment. After a strong 2Q18, US growth was revised up by 0.1 pp in both 2018 and 2019, reaching 2.9% and 2.5%, respectively. Euro-zone growth slowed and the forecasts were revised down by 0.2 pp to 2% for 2018 and by 0.1 pp to 1.9% in 2019. Growth in Japan remains at 1.2% in 2018, and the same level is projected for 2019. India’s forecasts are unchanged at 7.3% for 2018 and 7.4% for 2019. After solid growth in 1H18, China’s growth forecast was revised up by 0.1 pp to now stand at 6.6% for 2018 and remains at 6.2% for 2019.
Growth in Brazil was revised down by 0.1 pp, reaching 1.6% in 2018, but a mild rebound to 2.1% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast remains unchanged at 1.8% in both 2018 and 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, oil demand growth is anticipated to increase by 1.64 mb/d, 20 tb/d lower than last month’s projections, mainly due to weaker-than-expected oil demand data from Latin America and the Middle East in 2Q18. Total oil demand is anticipated to reach 98.83 mb/d. For 2019, world oil demand is forecast to grow by 1.43 mb/d, also some 20 tb/d lower than last month’s assessment. Total world consumption is anticipated to reach 100.26 mb/d. The OECD region will contribute positively to oil demand growth, rising by 0.27 mb/d y-oy, yet with growth of 1.16 mb/d, non-OECD nations will account for the majority of growth expected.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 was revised up by 73 tb/d from the previous MOMR to average 59.62 mb/d, representing an increase of 2.08 mb/d y-o-y. The main reason for this upward revision was an adjustment for the Chinese supply forecast due to the higher-than-expected oil output in 1H18. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is projected to reach an average of 61.75 mb/d, indicating an upward revision by 106 tb/d, mostly due to a re-assessment of the Chinese supply forecast for the next year. However, y-o-y growth was revised up by only 34 tb/d, to average 2.13 mb/d, owing to downward revisions in the US and Australian supply forecasts. The US, Brazil, Canada, the UK, Kazakhstan, Australia and Malaysia are the main growth drivers; while Mexico and Norway are expected to see the largest declines. The 2019 forecast remains subject to many uncertainties. OPEC NGL production in 2018 and 2019 is expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In July, OPEC production increased by 41 tb/d to average 32.32 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
In July, US margins recorded solid losses as crack spreads for all products with the exception of fuel oil declined, due to weaker fundamentals and higher feedstock costs. Strong middle distillate stock builds and an all-time record breaking jet fuel output further pressured USGC refining margins. In Europe, product markets recorded moderate gains on the top and bottom of the barrel, supported by firm exports outweighing losses seen in the middle of the barrel. Meanwhile, product markets in Asia strengthened, supported by robust gasoline demand from India, lower fuel oil arrivals from Europe and lower crude prices, which led to reduced feedstock costs for refiners, while gasoil output in China hit new highs.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker spot freight rates declined on average in July. This was mainly on the back of the continued weak trend persisting in the market across all classes. VLCC spot freight rates declined on all reported routes, while Suexmax spot freight rates remained flat, suffering from limited activity in general. Aframax saw mixed freight rates; however, average rates went down, pressured by the drop seen in the Caribbean and despite a firmer market in the Mediterranean. Clean tanker average spot freight rates declined as a result of lower freights West of Suez. Generally, the market remained uneventful, with limited demand on tonnage.
Stock Movements
Preliminary data for June showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks fell by 12.8 mb m-o-m to stand at 2,822 mb. This was 197 mb lower than seen during the same time one year ago, and 33 mb below the latest five-year average. However, OECD commercial oil stocks remain 251 mb above the January 2014 level. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell in June to stand at 58.8 days, which is 2.1 days lower than the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, 0.6 mb/d lower than the 2017 level. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32 mb/d, around 0.8 mb/d lower than the 2018 level.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 19 December 18
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND SET TO REMAIN STABLE THROUGH 2023, DESPITE HEADWINDS - IEA
While global coal demand looks set to rise for the second year in a row in 2018, it is forecast to remain stable over the next five years, as decli ...
Wednesday, 19 December 18
GLOBAL SHIPPING SCOUTS FOR FUTURE GROWTH - PETER SAND, BIMCO
Where do we go to find economic growth that spurs shipping demand in the next five years? According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), we sh ...
Wednesday, 19 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As another year is coming to an end, it is interesting to look at the main shipping markets and how these performed compared to 2017.
&nb ...
Tuesday, 18 December 18
COAL DEMAND WILL REMAIN STEADY THROUGH 2023, INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY SAYS - TOM DICHRISTOPHER, CNBC
Coal consumption is on the rise but will remain roughly stable over the next five years, the International Energy Agency forecasts.
...
Tuesday, 18 December 18
DRY BULK: IN ABSOLUTE TERMS, ALL MAIN SIZE SEGMENTS SAW THEIR ACTUAL VOLATILITY FIGURES DECREASE - ALLIED
Since the beginning of 2016, when the dry bulk market reached its absolute bottom, freight rates have been ever since on an upward trajectory. Taki ...
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- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The University of Queensland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- MS Steel International - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
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