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Thursday, 16 August 18
OIL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS - OPEC
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In July, the OPEC Reference Basket increased marginally by 5¢ m-o-m to settle at $73.27/b. Oil futures saw mixed movement over the month, while US oil inventories continued to drain, particularly in Cushing,
Oklahoma. ICE Brent averaged 99¢ m-o-m lower at $74.95/b, while NYMEX WTI rose $3.26 m-o-m to $70.58/b. Year-to-date (y-t-d), ICE Brent is $19.53 higher at $71.72/b compared to the same period a year earlier, while NYMEX WTI climbed $16.70 to $66.20/b. The ICE Brent/NYMEX WTI spread narrowed by $4.25/b to $4.37/b in July. Speculative net long positions ended the month lower, particularly for ICE Brent.
The Dubai market backwardated structure eased again, while Brent flipped into contango for the remainder of the year. In the US, WTI backwardation increased significantly for the second successive month. Apart from the USGC costal grades, the global sour discount to sweet crudes increased due to a surplus of sour crudes.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019, unchanged from the previous assessment. After a strong 2Q18, US growth was revised up by 0.1 pp in both 2018 and 2019, reaching 2.9% and 2.5%, respectively. Euro-zone growth slowed and the forecasts were revised down by 0.2 pp to 2% for 2018 and by 0.1 pp to 1.9% in 2019. Growth in Japan remains at 1.2% in 2018, and the same level is projected for 2019. India’s forecasts are unchanged at 7.3% for 2018 and 7.4% for 2019. After solid growth in 1H18, China’s growth forecast was revised up by 0.1 pp to now stand at 6.6% for 2018 and remains at 6.2% for 2019.
Growth in Brazil was revised down by 0.1 pp, reaching 1.6% in 2018, but a mild rebound to 2.1% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast remains unchanged at 1.8% in both 2018 and 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, oil demand growth is anticipated to increase by 1.64 mb/d, 20 tb/d lower than last month’s projections, mainly due to weaker-than-expected oil demand data from Latin America and the Middle East in 2Q18. Total oil demand is anticipated to reach 98.83 mb/d. For 2019, world oil demand is forecast to grow by 1.43 mb/d, also some 20 tb/d lower than last month’s assessment. Total world consumption is anticipated to reach 100.26 mb/d. The OECD region will contribute positively to oil demand growth, rising by 0.27 mb/d y-oy, yet with growth of 1.16 mb/d, non-OECD nations will account for the majority of growth expected.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 was revised up by 73 tb/d from the previous MOMR to average 59.62 mb/d, representing an increase of 2.08 mb/d y-o-y. The main reason for this upward revision was an adjustment for the Chinese supply forecast due to the higher-than-expected oil output in 1H18. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is projected to reach an average of 61.75 mb/d, indicating an upward revision by 106 tb/d, mostly due to a re-assessment of the Chinese supply forecast for the next year. However, y-o-y growth was revised up by only 34 tb/d, to average 2.13 mb/d, owing to downward revisions in the US and Australian supply forecasts. The US, Brazil, Canada, the UK, Kazakhstan, Australia and Malaysia are the main growth drivers; while Mexico and Norway are expected to see the largest declines. The 2019 forecast remains subject to many uncertainties. OPEC NGL production in 2018 and 2019 is expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In July, OPEC production increased by 41 tb/d to average 32.32 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
In July, US margins recorded solid losses as crack spreads for all products with the exception of fuel oil declined, due to weaker fundamentals and higher feedstock costs. Strong middle distillate stock builds and an all-time record breaking jet fuel output further pressured USGC refining margins. In Europe, product markets recorded moderate gains on the top and bottom of the barrel, supported by firm exports outweighing losses seen in the middle of the barrel. Meanwhile, product markets in Asia strengthened, supported by robust gasoline demand from India, lower fuel oil arrivals from Europe and lower crude prices, which led to reduced feedstock costs for refiners, while gasoil output in China hit new highs.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker spot freight rates declined on average in July. This was mainly on the back of the continued weak trend persisting in the market across all classes. VLCC spot freight rates declined on all reported routes, while Suexmax spot freight rates remained flat, suffering from limited activity in general. Aframax saw mixed freight rates; however, average rates went down, pressured by the drop seen in the Caribbean and despite a firmer market in the Mediterranean. Clean tanker average spot freight rates declined as a result of lower freights West of Suez. Generally, the market remained uneventful, with limited demand on tonnage.
Stock Movements
Preliminary data for June showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks fell by 12.8 mb m-o-m to stand at 2,822 mb. This was 197 mb lower than seen during the same time one year ago, and 33 mb below the latest five-year average. However, OECD commercial oil stocks remain 251 mb above the January 2014 level. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell in June to stand at 58.8 days, which is 2.1 days lower than the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, 0.6 mb/d lower than the 2017 level. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32 mb/d, around 0.8 mb/d lower than the 2018 level.
Source: OPEC
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Sunday, 30 December 18
MAJOR LNG BUYERS' UNCONTRACTED DEMAND TO QUADRUPLE BY 2030 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Wood Mackenzie’s latest research reveals that uncontracted demand by the world’s seven largest LNG buyers could quadruple to 80 million ...
Saturday, 29 December 18
DELIVERY OF CARGO WITHOUT PRODUCTION OF THE ORIGINAL BILL OF LADING - TT CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
As the bill of lading is a document of title, a person presenting it to the carrier or its agent is ostensibly entitled t ...
Friday, 28 December 18
BIMCO 2020 SULPHUR CLAUSES: "A FAIR ALLOCATION OF RESPONSIBILITIES AND LIABILITIES'? - INCE & CO.
To assist owners and charterers to address the legal issues arising under any time charterparties, which will span the 1 January 2020 implementatio ...
Thursday, 27 December 18
DRY BULKERS SPOT FREIGHT MARKET W/E 21 DEC - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
Capesize
A negative week for the Capesize sector, as activity remained at low levels, especially in the Pacific, with rumors regarding agreed r ...
Thursday, 27 December 18
SHIPPING IS ENTERING A NEW ERA OF EVER CHALLENGING CONDITIONS - ALLIED
As we move closer to the end of the year and we look forward into New Year, we are still finding ourselves looking deep into a market outlook full ...
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- PTC India Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
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