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Thursday, 16 August 18
OIL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS - OPEC
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In July, the OPEC Reference Basket increased marginally by 5¢ m-o-m to settle at $73.27/b. Oil futures saw mixed movement over the month, while US oil inventories continued to drain, particularly in Cushing,
Oklahoma. ICE Brent averaged 99¢ m-o-m lower at $74.95/b, while NYMEX WTI rose $3.26 m-o-m to $70.58/b. Year-to-date (y-t-d), ICE Brent is $19.53 higher at $71.72/b compared to the same period a year earlier, while NYMEX WTI climbed $16.70 to $66.20/b. The ICE Brent/NYMEX WTI spread narrowed by $4.25/b to $4.37/b in July. Speculative net long positions ended the month lower, particularly for ICE Brent.
The Dubai market backwardated structure eased again, while Brent flipped into contango for the remainder of the year. In the US, WTI backwardation increased significantly for the second successive month. Apart from the USGC costal grades, the global sour discount to sweet crudes increased due to a surplus of sour crudes.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019, unchanged from the previous assessment. After a strong 2Q18, US growth was revised up by 0.1 pp in both 2018 and 2019, reaching 2.9% and 2.5%, respectively. Euro-zone growth slowed and the forecasts were revised down by 0.2 pp to 2% for 2018 and by 0.1 pp to 1.9% in 2019. Growth in Japan remains at 1.2% in 2018, and the same level is projected for 2019. India’s forecasts are unchanged at 7.3% for 2018 and 7.4% for 2019. After solid growth in 1H18, China’s growth forecast was revised up by 0.1 pp to now stand at 6.6% for 2018 and remains at 6.2% for 2019.
Growth in Brazil was revised down by 0.1 pp, reaching 1.6% in 2018, but a mild rebound to 2.1% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast remains unchanged at 1.8% in both 2018 and 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, oil demand growth is anticipated to increase by 1.64 mb/d, 20 tb/d lower than last month’s projections, mainly due to weaker-than-expected oil demand data from Latin America and the Middle East in 2Q18. Total oil demand is anticipated to reach 98.83 mb/d. For 2019, world oil demand is forecast to grow by 1.43 mb/d, also some 20 tb/d lower than last month’s assessment. Total world consumption is anticipated to reach 100.26 mb/d. The OECD region will contribute positively to oil demand growth, rising by 0.27 mb/d y-oy, yet with growth of 1.16 mb/d, non-OECD nations will account for the majority of growth expected.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 was revised up by 73 tb/d from the previous MOMR to average 59.62 mb/d, representing an increase of 2.08 mb/d y-o-y. The main reason for this upward revision was an adjustment for the Chinese supply forecast due to the higher-than-expected oil output in 1H18. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is projected to reach an average of 61.75 mb/d, indicating an upward revision by 106 tb/d, mostly due to a re-assessment of the Chinese supply forecast for the next year. However, y-o-y growth was revised up by only 34 tb/d, to average 2.13 mb/d, owing to downward revisions in the US and Australian supply forecasts. The US, Brazil, Canada, the UK, Kazakhstan, Australia and Malaysia are the main growth drivers; while Mexico and Norway are expected to see the largest declines. The 2019 forecast remains subject to many uncertainties. OPEC NGL production in 2018 and 2019 is expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In July, OPEC production increased by 41 tb/d to average 32.32 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
In July, US margins recorded solid losses as crack spreads for all products with the exception of fuel oil declined, due to weaker fundamentals and higher feedstock costs. Strong middle distillate stock builds and an all-time record breaking jet fuel output further pressured USGC refining margins. In Europe, product markets recorded moderate gains on the top and bottom of the barrel, supported by firm exports outweighing losses seen in the middle of the barrel. Meanwhile, product markets in Asia strengthened, supported by robust gasoline demand from India, lower fuel oil arrivals from Europe and lower crude prices, which led to reduced feedstock costs for refiners, while gasoil output in China hit new highs.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker spot freight rates declined on average in July. This was mainly on the back of the continued weak trend persisting in the market across all classes. VLCC spot freight rates declined on all reported routes, while Suexmax spot freight rates remained flat, suffering from limited activity in general. Aframax saw mixed freight rates; however, average rates went down, pressured by the drop seen in the Caribbean and despite a firmer market in the Mediterranean. Clean tanker average spot freight rates declined as a result of lower freights West of Suez. Generally, the market remained uneventful, with limited demand on tonnage.
Stock Movements
Preliminary data for June showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks fell by 12.8 mb m-o-m to stand at 2,822 mb. This was 197 mb lower than seen during the same time one year ago, and 33 mb below the latest five-year average. However, OECD commercial oil stocks remain 251 mb above the January 2014 level. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell in June to stand at 58.8 days, which is 2.1 days lower than the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, 0.6 mb/d lower than the 2017 level. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32 mb/d, around 0.8 mb/d lower than the 2018 level.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 25 December 18
FUEL QUALITY AND SAFETY IN IMO CONVENTIONS: A GROWING CHALLENGE, EVEN PRIOR TO 1 JANUARY 2020 - IUMI
At the 100th session of the International Maritime Organization’s (IMO) Maritime Safety Committee (MSC) meeting discussions on fuel quality a ...
Monday, 24 December 18
DRY BULK MARKET: CAPESIZE MARKET ON BACKFOOT AS 2018'S END DRAWS NEAR - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Panic set in in the East as the holiday season approaches, with owners chasing rates lower. Rates on the key West Australia/China route ...
Friday, 21 December 18
4.2 MILLION DWT OF DRY BULK SHIPS SCRAPPED UNTIL 17 DEC, DOWN 71.6% Y/Y - BIMCO
2018 has been a slow year for dry bulk demolitions, with only 4.2 million DWT scrapped (as of 17 December), down 71.6% compared to last year. An al ...
Thursday, 20 December 18
INDONESIAN COAL PRICES DIVERGE FROM KEY BENCHMARK - FITCH RATINGS
The Newcastle 6,000kcal coal price benchmark that is widely used to determine most coal price estimates for Indonesian coal miners has increasingly ...
Wednesday, 19 December 18
CHINA'S IMPORT RESTRICTIONS ON COAL SPOILS THE PARTY FOR PANAMAXES - DREWRY
The Chinese government’s objective of suppressing coal and lignite imports in November and December 2018 is adversely impacting demand for Pa ...
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- PTC India Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
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