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Thursday, 16 August 18
OIL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS - OPEC
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In July, the OPEC Reference Basket increased marginally by 5¢ m-o-m to settle at $73.27/b. Oil futures saw mixed movement over the month, while US oil inventories continued to drain, particularly in Cushing,
Oklahoma. ICE Brent averaged 99¢ m-o-m lower at $74.95/b, while NYMEX WTI rose $3.26 m-o-m to $70.58/b. Year-to-date (y-t-d), ICE Brent is $19.53 higher at $71.72/b compared to the same period a year earlier, while NYMEX WTI climbed $16.70 to $66.20/b. The ICE Brent/NYMEX WTI spread narrowed by $4.25/b to $4.37/b in July. Speculative net long positions ended the month lower, particularly for ICE Brent.
The Dubai market backwardated structure eased again, while Brent flipped into contango for the remainder of the year. In the US, WTI backwardation increased significantly for the second successive month. Apart from the USGC costal grades, the global sour discount to sweet crudes increased due to a surplus of sour crudes.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019, unchanged from the previous assessment. After a strong 2Q18, US growth was revised up by 0.1 pp in both 2018 and 2019, reaching 2.9% and 2.5%, respectively. Euro-zone growth slowed and the forecasts were revised down by 0.2 pp to 2% for 2018 and by 0.1 pp to 1.9% in 2019. Growth in Japan remains at 1.2% in 2018, and the same level is projected for 2019. India’s forecasts are unchanged at 7.3% for 2018 and 7.4% for 2019. After solid growth in 1H18, China’s growth forecast was revised up by 0.1 pp to now stand at 6.6% for 2018 and remains at 6.2% for 2019.
Growth in Brazil was revised down by 0.1 pp, reaching 1.6% in 2018, but a mild rebound to 2.1% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast remains unchanged at 1.8% in both 2018 and 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, oil demand growth is anticipated to increase by 1.64 mb/d, 20 tb/d lower than last month’s projections, mainly due to weaker-than-expected oil demand data from Latin America and the Middle East in 2Q18. Total oil demand is anticipated to reach 98.83 mb/d. For 2019, world oil demand is forecast to grow by 1.43 mb/d, also some 20 tb/d lower than last month’s assessment. Total world consumption is anticipated to reach 100.26 mb/d. The OECD region will contribute positively to oil demand growth, rising by 0.27 mb/d y-oy, yet with growth of 1.16 mb/d, non-OECD nations will account for the majority of growth expected.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 was revised up by 73 tb/d from the previous MOMR to average 59.62 mb/d, representing an increase of 2.08 mb/d y-o-y. The main reason for this upward revision was an adjustment for the Chinese supply forecast due to the higher-than-expected oil output in 1H18. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is projected to reach an average of 61.75 mb/d, indicating an upward revision by 106 tb/d, mostly due to a re-assessment of the Chinese supply forecast for the next year. However, y-o-y growth was revised up by only 34 tb/d, to average 2.13 mb/d, owing to downward revisions in the US and Australian supply forecasts. The US, Brazil, Canada, the UK, Kazakhstan, Australia and Malaysia are the main growth drivers; while Mexico and Norway are expected to see the largest declines. The 2019 forecast remains subject to many uncertainties. OPEC NGL production in 2018 and 2019 is expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In July, OPEC production increased by 41 tb/d to average 32.32 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
In July, US margins recorded solid losses as crack spreads for all products with the exception of fuel oil declined, due to weaker fundamentals and higher feedstock costs. Strong middle distillate stock builds and an all-time record breaking jet fuel output further pressured USGC refining margins. In Europe, product markets recorded moderate gains on the top and bottom of the barrel, supported by firm exports outweighing losses seen in the middle of the barrel. Meanwhile, product markets in Asia strengthened, supported by robust gasoline demand from India, lower fuel oil arrivals from Europe and lower crude prices, which led to reduced feedstock costs for refiners, while gasoil output in China hit new highs.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker spot freight rates declined on average in July. This was mainly on the back of the continued weak trend persisting in the market across all classes. VLCC spot freight rates declined on all reported routes, while Suexmax spot freight rates remained flat, suffering from limited activity in general. Aframax saw mixed freight rates; however, average rates went down, pressured by the drop seen in the Caribbean and despite a firmer market in the Mediterranean. Clean tanker average spot freight rates declined as a result of lower freights West of Suez. Generally, the market remained uneventful, with limited demand on tonnage.
Stock Movements
Preliminary data for June showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks fell by 12.8 mb m-o-m to stand at 2,822 mb. This was 197 mb lower than seen during the same time one year ago, and 33 mb below the latest five-year average. However, OECD commercial oil stocks remain 251 mb above the January 2014 level. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell in June to stand at 58.8 days, which is 2.1 days lower than the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, 0.6 mb/d lower than the 2017 level. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32 mb/d, around 0.8 mb/d lower than the 2018 level.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 04 January 19
FOCUS IS ON BOOSTING COAL PRODUCTION: INDIAN COAL MINISTER
The current focus of the government is on boosting production from operational coal mines, according to Minister for Coal, Piyush Goyal.
...
Thursday, 03 January 19
CAPESIZE: A MORE POSITIVE START OF THE NEW YEAR THAN EXPECTED FOR THE BIG SHIPS - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
A more positive start of the new year than expected for the big ships, with average gains of US$ 500/day posted on the first tra ...
Tuesday, 01 January 19
INDONESIA: COAL PRODUCTION EXPECTED TO EXCEED THIS YEAR'S TARGET - JP
Indonesian coal production reached 456 million tons up to Thursday or 94.02 percent of this year’s total target of 485 million tons, accordin ...
Monday, 31 December 18
THE INDONESIAN COAL MARKET Q1 '19 FORECAST: LOOKS DIRECTIONLESS - TRADER
The Indonesian coal market looks directionless, an International coal trader said when we asked him to give his forecast for 1Q' 2019.
...
Monday, 31 December 18
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND GREW BY 1% IN 2017; GLOBAL COAL POWER GENERATION INCREASED BY OVER 250 TWH - IEA
After two years of decline, global coal demand grew by 1% in 2017 to 7585 Mt as stronger global economic growth increased both industrial output an ...
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- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- VISA Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The University of Queensland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
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