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Thursday, 16 August 18
OIL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS - OPEC
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In July, the OPEC Reference Basket increased marginally by 5¢ m-o-m to settle at $73.27/b. Oil futures saw mixed movement over the month, while US oil inventories continued to drain, particularly in Cushing,
Oklahoma. ICE Brent averaged 99¢ m-o-m lower at $74.95/b, while NYMEX WTI rose $3.26 m-o-m to $70.58/b. Year-to-date (y-t-d), ICE Brent is $19.53 higher at $71.72/b compared to the same period a year earlier, while NYMEX WTI climbed $16.70 to $66.20/b. The ICE Brent/NYMEX WTI spread narrowed by $4.25/b to $4.37/b in July. Speculative net long positions ended the month lower, particularly for ICE Brent.
The Dubai market backwardated structure eased again, while Brent flipped into contango for the remainder of the year. In the US, WTI backwardation increased significantly for the second successive month. Apart from the USGC costal grades, the global sour discount to sweet crudes increased due to a surplus of sour crudes.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019, unchanged from the previous assessment. After a strong 2Q18, US growth was revised up by 0.1 pp in both 2018 and 2019, reaching 2.9% and 2.5%, respectively. Euro-zone growth slowed and the forecasts were revised down by 0.2 pp to 2% for 2018 and by 0.1 pp to 1.9% in 2019. Growth in Japan remains at 1.2% in 2018, and the same level is projected for 2019. India’s forecasts are unchanged at 7.3% for 2018 and 7.4% for 2019. After solid growth in 1H18, China’s growth forecast was revised up by 0.1 pp to now stand at 6.6% for 2018 and remains at 6.2% for 2019.
Growth in Brazil was revised down by 0.1 pp, reaching 1.6% in 2018, but a mild rebound to 2.1% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast remains unchanged at 1.8% in both 2018 and 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, oil demand growth is anticipated to increase by 1.64 mb/d, 20 tb/d lower than last month’s projections, mainly due to weaker-than-expected oil demand data from Latin America and the Middle East in 2Q18. Total oil demand is anticipated to reach 98.83 mb/d. For 2019, world oil demand is forecast to grow by 1.43 mb/d, also some 20 tb/d lower than last month’s assessment. Total world consumption is anticipated to reach 100.26 mb/d. The OECD region will contribute positively to oil demand growth, rising by 0.27 mb/d y-oy, yet with growth of 1.16 mb/d, non-OECD nations will account for the majority of growth expected.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 was revised up by 73 tb/d from the previous MOMR to average 59.62 mb/d, representing an increase of 2.08 mb/d y-o-y. The main reason for this upward revision was an adjustment for the Chinese supply forecast due to the higher-than-expected oil output in 1H18. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is projected to reach an average of 61.75 mb/d, indicating an upward revision by 106 tb/d, mostly due to a re-assessment of the Chinese supply forecast for the next year. However, y-o-y growth was revised up by only 34 tb/d, to average 2.13 mb/d, owing to downward revisions in the US and Australian supply forecasts. The US, Brazil, Canada, the UK, Kazakhstan, Australia and Malaysia are the main growth drivers; while Mexico and Norway are expected to see the largest declines. The 2019 forecast remains subject to many uncertainties. OPEC NGL production in 2018 and 2019 is expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In July, OPEC production increased by 41 tb/d to average 32.32 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
In July, US margins recorded solid losses as crack spreads for all products with the exception of fuel oil declined, due to weaker fundamentals and higher feedstock costs. Strong middle distillate stock builds and an all-time record breaking jet fuel output further pressured USGC refining margins. In Europe, product markets recorded moderate gains on the top and bottom of the barrel, supported by firm exports outweighing losses seen in the middle of the barrel. Meanwhile, product markets in Asia strengthened, supported by robust gasoline demand from India, lower fuel oil arrivals from Europe and lower crude prices, which led to reduced feedstock costs for refiners, while gasoil output in China hit new highs.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker spot freight rates declined on average in July. This was mainly on the back of the continued weak trend persisting in the market across all classes. VLCC spot freight rates declined on all reported routes, while Suexmax spot freight rates remained flat, suffering from limited activity in general. Aframax saw mixed freight rates; however, average rates went down, pressured by the drop seen in the Caribbean and despite a firmer market in the Mediterranean. Clean tanker average spot freight rates declined as a result of lower freights West of Suez. Generally, the market remained uneventful, with limited demand on tonnage.
Stock Movements
Preliminary data for June showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks fell by 12.8 mb m-o-m to stand at 2,822 mb. This was 197 mb lower than seen during the same time one year ago, and 33 mb below the latest five-year average. However, OECD commercial oil stocks remain 251 mb above the January 2014 level. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell in June to stand at 58.8 days, which is 2.1 days lower than the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, 0.6 mb/d lower than the 2017 level. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32 mb/d, around 0.8 mb/d lower than the 2018 level.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 11 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
A lot of discussions have been made as to the effects of the IMO 2020 regulation on OPEX levels, investment feasibility of& ...
Tuesday, 11 December 18
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 10.849 MMT OF COAL IN NOVEMBER DOWN 23.44 PERCENT MOM
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading port and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped A$ 1,574.8 mil ...
Thursday, 06 December 18
IN THE EAST, BIGGER SUPRA WAS FIXED CA US$ 10K FOR INDO-CHINA COAL ROUND - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
There is cautious optimism for the Capes, with healthier volumes and improving rates in the Pacific. West Australia round is gradually ...
Thursday, 06 December 18
U.S. COAL CONSUMPTION IN 2018 EXPECTED TO BE THE LOWEST IN 39 YEARS - EIA
EIA expects total U.S. coal consumption in 2018 to fall to 691 million short tons (MMst), a 4% decline from 2017 and the lowest level since 1979. U ...
Thursday, 06 December 18
DEMAND RISKS WEIGH ON GLOBAL SHIPPING SECTOR OUTLOOK - FITCH RATINGS
The global shipping sector outlook remains negative reflecting the demand-side risks of protectionism and slower economic growth, Fitch Ratings say ...
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The University of Queensland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
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