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Thursday, 16 August 18
OIL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS - OPEC
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In July, the OPEC Reference Basket increased marginally by 5¢ m-o-m to settle at $73.27/b. Oil futures saw mixed movement over the month, while US oil inventories continued to drain, particularly in Cushing,
Oklahoma. ICE Brent averaged 99¢ m-o-m lower at $74.95/b, while NYMEX WTI rose $3.26 m-o-m to $70.58/b. Year-to-date (y-t-d), ICE Brent is $19.53 higher at $71.72/b compared to the same period a year earlier, while NYMEX WTI climbed $16.70 to $66.20/b. The ICE Brent/NYMEX WTI spread narrowed by $4.25/b to $4.37/b in July. Speculative net long positions ended the month lower, particularly for ICE Brent.
The Dubai market backwardated structure eased again, while Brent flipped into contango for the remainder of the year. In the US, WTI backwardation increased significantly for the second successive month. Apart from the USGC costal grades, the global sour discount to sweet crudes increased due to a surplus of sour crudes.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019, unchanged from the previous assessment. After a strong 2Q18, US growth was revised up by 0.1 pp in both 2018 and 2019, reaching 2.9% and 2.5%, respectively. Euro-zone growth slowed and the forecasts were revised down by 0.2 pp to 2% for 2018 and by 0.1 pp to 1.9% in 2019. Growth in Japan remains at 1.2% in 2018, and the same level is projected for 2019. India’s forecasts are unchanged at 7.3% for 2018 and 7.4% for 2019. After solid growth in 1H18, China’s growth forecast was revised up by 0.1 pp to now stand at 6.6% for 2018 and remains at 6.2% for 2019.
Growth in Brazil was revised down by 0.1 pp, reaching 1.6% in 2018, but a mild rebound to 2.1% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast remains unchanged at 1.8% in both 2018 and 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, oil demand growth is anticipated to increase by 1.64 mb/d, 20 tb/d lower than last month’s projections, mainly due to weaker-than-expected oil demand data from Latin America and the Middle East in 2Q18. Total oil demand is anticipated to reach 98.83 mb/d. For 2019, world oil demand is forecast to grow by 1.43 mb/d, also some 20 tb/d lower than last month’s assessment. Total world consumption is anticipated to reach 100.26 mb/d. The OECD region will contribute positively to oil demand growth, rising by 0.27 mb/d y-oy, yet with growth of 1.16 mb/d, non-OECD nations will account for the majority of growth expected.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 was revised up by 73 tb/d from the previous MOMR to average 59.62 mb/d, representing an increase of 2.08 mb/d y-o-y. The main reason for this upward revision was an adjustment for the Chinese supply forecast due to the higher-than-expected oil output in 1H18. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is projected to reach an average of 61.75 mb/d, indicating an upward revision by 106 tb/d, mostly due to a re-assessment of the Chinese supply forecast for the next year. However, y-o-y growth was revised up by only 34 tb/d, to average 2.13 mb/d, owing to downward revisions in the US and Australian supply forecasts. The US, Brazil, Canada, the UK, Kazakhstan, Australia and Malaysia are the main growth drivers; while Mexico and Norway are expected to see the largest declines. The 2019 forecast remains subject to many uncertainties. OPEC NGL production in 2018 and 2019 is expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In July, OPEC production increased by 41 tb/d to average 32.32 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
In July, US margins recorded solid losses as crack spreads for all products with the exception of fuel oil declined, due to weaker fundamentals and higher feedstock costs. Strong middle distillate stock builds and an all-time record breaking jet fuel output further pressured USGC refining margins. In Europe, product markets recorded moderate gains on the top and bottom of the barrel, supported by firm exports outweighing losses seen in the middle of the barrel. Meanwhile, product markets in Asia strengthened, supported by robust gasoline demand from India, lower fuel oil arrivals from Europe and lower crude prices, which led to reduced feedstock costs for refiners, while gasoil output in China hit new highs.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker spot freight rates declined on average in July. This was mainly on the back of the continued weak trend persisting in the market across all classes. VLCC spot freight rates declined on all reported routes, while Suexmax spot freight rates remained flat, suffering from limited activity in general. Aframax saw mixed freight rates; however, average rates went down, pressured by the drop seen in the Caribbean and despite a firmer market in the Mediterranean. Clean tanker average spot freight rates declined as a result of lower freights West of Suez. Generally, the market remained uneventful, with limited demand on tonnage.
Stock Movements
Preliminary data for June showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks fell by 12.8 mb m-o-m to stand at 2,822 mb. This was 197 mb lower than seen during the same time one year ago, and 33 mb below the latest five-year average. However, OECD commercial oil stocks remain 251 mb above the January 2014 level. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell in June to stand at 58.8 days, which is 2.1 days lower than the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, 0.6 mb/d lower than the 2017 level. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32 mb/d, around 0.8 mb/d lower than the 2018 level.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 02 November 18
COAL FETCHES 102% PREMIUM IN E-AUCTION, SURPASSING THE EARLIER HIGHEST OF 95% - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Coal prices have received a premium of 102% in spot e-auction during September 2018, surpassing the earlier highest of 95% premium during the spot ...
Friday, 02 November 18
CHINA: COAL CONSUMPTION POSTS STRONG GROWTH ON BACK OF POWER GENERATION DEMAND - CHINA DAILY
China’s energy consumption experienced continuous rebound during the first three quarters in 2018, National Energy Administration announced o ...
Thursday, 01 November 18
IMO 2020 - EXPLORING THE OPTION OF SOX SCRUBBERS - SIDDHARTH MAHAJAN, GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
There are four possible methods of compliance:
1.use VLSFO (very low Sulphur oil) or blends;
2,use dis ...
Wednesday, 31 October 18
INDIA: COAL IMPORTS SURGE ON DOMESTIC SHORT SUPPLY - HINDU
Shortage of thermal coal supply in India has pushed imports up to 85 million tonnes (mt) in the first half of the current fiscal compared to 75 mt ...
Wednesday, 31 October 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - APOSTOLOS ROMPOPOULOS
Since the IMO’s 2020 global cap on sulphur in marine fuels is coming into force, ship-owners have to decide whether they will operate using e ...
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- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
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