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Thursday, 16 August 18
OIL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS - OPEC
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In July, the OPEC Reference Basket increased marginally by 5¢ m-o-m to settle at $73.27/b. Oil futures saw mixed movement over the month, while US oil inventories continued to drain, particularly in Cushing,
Oklahoma. ICE Brent averaged 99¢ m-o-m lower at $74.95/b, while NYMEX WTI rose $3.26 m-o-m to $70.58/b. Year-to-date (y-t-d), ICE Brent is $19.53 higher at $71.72/b compared to the same period a year earlier, while NYMEX WTI climbed $16.70 to $66.20/b. The ICE Brent/NYMEX WTI spread narrowed by $4.25/b to $4.37/b in July. Speculative net long positions ended the month lower, particularly for ICE Brent.
The Dubai market backwardated structure eased again, while Brent flipped into contango for the remainder of the year. In the US, WTI backwardation increased significantly for the second successive month. Apart from the USGC costal grades, the global sour discount to sweet crudes increased due to a surplus of sour crudes.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019, unchanged from the previous assessment. After a strong 2Q18, US growth was revised up by 0.1 pp in both 2018 and 2019, reaching 2.9% and 2.5%, respectively. Euro-zone growth slowed and the forecasts were revised down by 0.2 pp to 2% for 2018 and by 0.1 pp to 1.9% in 2019. Growth in Japan remains at 1.2% in 2018, and the same level is projected for 2019. India’s forecasts are unchanged at 7.3% for 2018 and 7.4% for 2019. After solid growth in 1H18, China’s growth forecast was revised up by 0.1 pp to now stand at 6.6% for 2018 and remains at 6.2% for 2019.
Growth in Brazil was revised down by 0.1 pp, reaching 1.6% in 2018, but a mild rebound to 2.1% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast remains unchanged at 1.8% in both 2018 and 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, oil demand growth is anticipated to increase by 1.64 mb/d, 20 tb/d lower than last month’s projections, mainly due to weaker-than-expected oil demand data from Latin America and the Middle East in 2Q18. Total oil demand is anticipated to reach 98.83 mb/d. For 2019, world oil demand is forecast to grow by 1.43 mb/d, also some 20 tb/d lower than last month’s assessment. Total world consumption is anticipated to reach 100.26 mb/d. The OECD region will contribute positively to oil demand growth, rising by 0.27 mb/d y-oy, yet with growth of 1.16 mb/d, non-OECD nations will account for the majority of growth expected.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 was revised up by 73 tb/d from the previous MOMR to average 59.62 mb/d, representing an increase of 2.08 mb/d y-o-y. The main reason for this upward revision was an adjustment for the Chinese supply forecast due to the higher-than-expected oil output in 1H18. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is projected to reach an average of 61.75 mb/d, indicating an upward revision by 106 tb/d, mostly due to a re-assessment of the Chinese supply forecast for the next year. However, y-o-y growth was revised up by only 34 tb/d, to average 2.13 mb/d, owing to downward revisions in the US and Australian supply forecasts. The US, Brazil, Canada, the UK, Kazakhstan, Australia and Malaysia are the main growth drivers; while Mexico and Norway are expected to see the largest declines. The 2019 forecast remains subject to many uncertainties. OPEC NGL production in 2018 and 2019 is expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In July, OPEC production increased by 41 tb/d to average 32.32 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
In July, US margins recorded solid losses as crack spreads for all products with the exception of fuel oil declined, due to weaker fundamentals and higher feedstock costs. Strong middle distillate stock builds and an all-time record breaking jet fuel output further pressured USGC refining margins. In Europe, product markets recorded moderate gains on the top and bottom of the barrel, supported by firm exports outweighing losses seen in the middle of the barrel. Meanwhile, product markets in Asia strengthened, supported by robust gasoline demand from India, lower fuel oil arrivals from Europe and lower crude prices, which led to reduced feedstock costs for refiners, while gasoil output in China hit new highs.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker spot freight rates declined on average in July. This was mainly on the back of the continued weak trend persisting in the market across all classes. VLCC spot freight rates declined on all reported routes, while Suexmax spot freight rates remained flat, suffering from limited activity in general. Aframax saw mixed freight rates; however, average rates went down, pressured by the drop seen in the Caribbean and despite a firmer market in the Mediterranean. Clean tanker average spot freight rates declined as a result of lower freights West of Suez. Generally, the market remained uneventful, with limited demand on tonnage.
Stock Movements
Preliminary data for June showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks fell by 12.8 mb m-o-m to stand at 2,822 mb. This was 197 mb lower than seen during the same time one year ago, and 33 mb below the latest five-year average. However, OECD commercial oil stocks remain 251 mb above the January 2014 level. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell in June to stand at 58.8 days, which is 2.1 days lower than the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, 0.6 mb/d lower than the 2017 level. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32 mb/d, around 0.8 mb/d lower than the 2018 level.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 24 October 18
MARKET INSIGHT - NASSOS SOULAKIS
Looking at 2018 SnP activity, it is evident that Greek, Chinese and North European (German and Norwegian) owners are the top buying nationalities, ...
Wednesday, 24 October 18
CHINESE POWER PLANT STOCKPILES AT HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE 2015 - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
Chinese power plant coal stockpiles have climbed to approximately 83.3 million tons as of the middle of this month, said Jeffrey Landsberg in his e ...
Tuesday, 23 October 18
WILL THE U.S. COAL DECLINE CONTINUE? - FORBES
What’s Trump’s new coal proposal?
Adding to its controversial plan to leverage federal authority to keep retiring baselo ...
Monday, 22 October 18
CONTINUED HIGH LNG PRICES; TRADE WAR IMPACT LIMITED - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects sustained high spot liquefied natural gas (LNG) and contract prices over the next two quarters on limited investment in LNG e ...
Monday, 22 October 18
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
The oil market in the winter season is generally characterized by demand for diesel, particularly in the northern hemisphere, leaving product marke ...
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- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
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