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Thursday, 16 August 18
OIL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS - OPEC
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In July, the OPEC Reference Basket increased marginally by 5¢ m-o-m to settle at $73.27/b. Oil futures saw mixed movement over the month, while US oil inventories continued to drain, particularly in Cushing,
Oklahoma. ICE Brent averaged 99¢ m-o-m lower at $74.95/b, while NYMEX WTI rose $3.26 m-o-m to $70.58/b. Year-to-date (y-t-d), ICE Brent is $19.53 higher at $71.72/b compared to the same period a year earlier, while NYMEX WTI climbed $16.70 to $66.20/b. The ICE Brent/NYMEX WTI spread narrowed by $4.25/b to $4.37/b in July. Speculative net long positions ended the month lower, particularly for ICE Brent.
The Dubai market backwardated structure eased again, while Brent flipped into contango for the remainder of the year. In the US, WTI backwardation increased significantly for the second successive month. Apart from the USGC costal grades, the global sour discount to sweet crudes increased due to a surplus of sour crudes.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019, unchanged from the previous assessment. After a strong 2Q18, US growth was revised up by 0.1 pp in both 2018 and 2019, reaching 2.9% and 2.5%, respectively. Euro-zone growth slowed and the forecasts were revised down by 0.2 pp to 2% for 2018 and by 0.1 pp to 1.9% in 2019. Growth in Japan remains at 1.2% in 2018, and the same level is projected for 2019. India’s forecasts are unchanged at 7.3% for 2018 and 7.4% for 2019. After solid growth in 1H18, China’s growth forecast was revised up by 0.1 pp to now stand at 6.6% for 2018 and remains at 6.2% for 2019.
Growth in Brazil was revised down by 0.1 pp, reaching 1.6% in 2018, but a mild rebound to 2.1% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast remains unchanged at 1.8% in both 2018 and 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, oil demand growth is anticipated to increase by 1.64 mb/d, 20 tb/d lower than last month’s projections, mainly due to weaker-than-expected oil demand data from Latin America and the Middle East in 2Q18. Total oil demand is anticipated to reach 98.83 mb/d. For 2019, world oil demand is forecast to grow by 1.43 mb/d, also some 20 tb/d lower than last month’s assessment. Total world consumption is anticipated to reach 100.26 mb/d. The OECD region will contribute positively to oil demand growth, rising by 0.27 mb/d y-oy, yet with growth of 1.16 mb/d, non-OECD nations will account for the majority of growth expected.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 was revised up by 73 tb/d from the previous MOMR to average 59.62 mb/d, representing an increase of 2.08 mb/d y-o-y. The main reason for this upward revision was an adjustment for the Chinese supply forecast due to the higher-than-expected oil output in 1H18. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is projected to reach an average of 61.75 mb/d, indicating an upward revision by 106 tb/d, mostly due to a re-assessment of the Chinese supply forecast for the next year. However, y-o-y growth was revised up by only 34 tb/d, to average 2.13 mb/d, owing to downward revisions in the US and Australian supply forecasts. The US, Brazil, Canada, the UK, Kazakhstan, Australia and Malaysia are the main growth drivers; while Mexico and Norway are expected to see the largest declines. The 2019 forecast remains subject to many uncertainties. OPEC NGL production in 2018 and 2019 is expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In July, OPEC production increased by 41 tb/d to average 32.32 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
In July, US margins recorded solid losses as crack spreads for all products with the exception of fuel oil declined, due to weaker fundamentals and higher feedstock costs. Strong middle distillate stock builds and an all-time record breaking jet fuel output further pressured USGC refining margins. In Europe, product markets recorded moderate gains on the top and bottom of the barrel, supported by firm exports outweighing losses seen in the middle of the barrel. Meanwhile, product markets in Asia strengthened, supported by robust gasoline demand from India, lower fuel oil arrivals from Europe and lower crude prices, which led to reduced feedstock costs for refiners, while gasoil output in China hit new highs.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker spot freight rates declined on average in July. This was mainly on the back of the continued weak trend persisting in the market across all classes. VLCC spot freight rates declined on all reported routes, while Suexmax spot freight rates remained flat, suffering from limited activity in general. Aframax saw mixed freight rates; however, average rates went down, pressured by the drop seen in the Caribbean and despite a firmer market in the Mediterranean. Clean tanker average spot freight rates declined as a result of lower freights West of Suez. Generally, the market remained uneventful, with limited demand on tonnage.
Stock Movements
Preliminary data for June showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks fell by 12.8 mb m-o-m to stand at 2,822 mb. This was 197 mb lower than seen during the same time one year ago, and 33 mb below the latest five-year average. However, OECD commercial oil stocks remain 251 mb above the January 2014 level. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell in June to stand at 58.8 days, which is 2.1 days lower than the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, 0.6 mb/d lower than the 2017 level. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32 mb/d, around 0.8 mb/d lower than the 2018 level.
Source: OPEC
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Monday, 29 October 18
IMPLEMENTATION OF SULPHUR 2020 LIMIT - CARRIAGE BAN ADOPTED - IMO
An amendment to support consistent implementation of the forthcoming 0.50% limit on sulphur in ships fuel oil was adopted by the International Mari ...
Monday, 29 October 18
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN AREA SAW FALLING RATES, WITH A 61,000DWT FIXING DELIVERY KOHSICHANG TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY INDIA, AT $10,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A market of two halves for most of the week with rates in the Atlantic firming and easing in the East for most of the week, but then, ...
Friday, 26 October 18
SHIP OPERATING COSTS EXPECTED TO RISE IN 2018 AND 2019 - MOORE STEPHENS
Total vessel operating costs in the shipping industry are expected to rise by 2.7% in 2018 and by 3.1% in 2019, according to our latest survey.
...
Friday, 26 October 18
SEVERAL CONTRACTIONS IN GLOBAL STEEL PRODUCTION - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
World Steel Association data released today shows that global crude steel production totaled approximately 151.7 million tons in September. T ...
Thursday, 25 October 18
WHAT DOES THE "IMO 2020" REGULATION REALLY SAY? A QUICK GUIDE - BIMCO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The shipping industry has all eyes firmly fixed on the topic, but what exactly do the “IMO 2020” global sulph ...
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- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
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- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
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- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
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- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
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- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
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- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
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- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
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