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Thursday, 16 August 18
OIL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS - OPEC
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In July, the OPEC Reference Basket increased marginally by 5¢ m-o-m to settle at $73.27/b. Oil futures saw mixed movement over the month, while US oil inventories continued to drain, particularly in Cushing,
Oklahoma. ICE Brent averaged 99¢ m-o-m lower at $74.95/b, while NYMEX WTI rose $3.26 m-o-m to $70.58/b. Year-to-date (y-t-d), ICE Brent is $19.53 higher at $71.72/b compared to the same period a year earlier, while NYMEX WTI climbed $16.70 to $66.20/b. The ICE Brent/NYMEX WTI spread narrowed by $4.25/b to $4.37/b in July. Speculative net long positions ended the month lower, particularly for ICE Brent.
The Dubai market backwardated structure eased again, while Brent flipped into contango for the remainder of the year. In the US, WTI backwardation increased significantly for the second successive month. Apart from the USGC costal grades, the global sour discount to sweet crudes increased due to a surplus of sour crudes.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019, unchanged from the previous assessment. After a strong 2Q18, US growth was revised up by 0.1 pp in both 2018 and 2019, reaching 2.9% and 2.5%, respectively. Euro-zone growth slowed and the forecasts were revised down by 0.2 pp to 2% for 2018 and by 0.1 pp to 1.9% in 2019. Growth in Japan remains at 1.2% in 2018, and the same level is projected for 2019. India’s forecasts are unchanged at 7.3% for 2018 and 7.4% for 2019. After solid growth in 1H18, China’s growth forecast was revised up by 0.1 pp to now stand at 6.6% for 2018 and remains at 6.2% for 2019.
Growth in Brazil was revised down by 0.1 pp, reaching 1.6% in 2018, but a mild rebound to 2.1% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast remains unchanged at 1.8% in both 2018 and 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, oil demand growth is anticipated to increase by 1.64 mb/d, 20 tb/d lower than last month’s projections, mainly due to weaker-than-expected oil demand data from Latin America and the Middle East in 2Q18. Total oil demand is anticipated to reach 98.83 mb/d. For 2019, world oil demand is forecast to grow by 1.43 mb/d, also some 20 tb/d lower than last month’s assessment. Total world consumption is anticipated to reach 100.26 mb/d. The OECD region will contribute positively to oil demand growth, rising by 0.27 mb/d y-oy, yet with growth of 1.16 mb/d, non-OECD nations will account for the majority of growth expected.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 was revised up by 73 tb/d from the previous MOMR to average 59.62 mb/d, representing an increase of 2.08 mb/d y-o-y. The main reason for this upward revision was an adjustment for the Chinese supply forecast due to the higher-than-expected oil output in 1H18. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is projected to reach an average of 61.75 mb/d, indicating an upward revision by 106 tb/d, mostly due to a re-assessment of the Chinese supply forecast for the next year. However, y-o-y growth was revised up by only 34 tb/d, to average 2.13 mb/d, owing to downward revisions in the US and Australian supply forecasts. The US, Brazil, Canada, the UK, Kazakhstan, Australia and Malaysia are the main growth drivers; while Mexico and Norway are expected to see the largest declines. The 2019 forecast remains subject to many uncertainties. OPEC NGL production in 2018 and 2019 is expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In July, OPEC production increased by 41 tb/d to average 32.32 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
In July, US margins recorded solid losses as crack spreads for all products with the exception of fuel oil declined, due to weaker fundamentals and higher feedstock costs. Strong middle distillate stock builds and an all-time record breaking jet fuel output further pressured USGC refining margins. In Europe, product markets recorded moderate gains on the top and bottom of the barrel, supported by firm exports outweighing losses seen in the middle of the barrel. Meanwhile, product markets in Asia strengthened, supported by robust gasoline demand from India, lower fuel oil arrivals from Europe and lower crude prices, which led to reduced feedstock costs for refiners, while gasoil output in China hit new highs.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker spot freight rates declined on average in July. This was mainly on the back of the continued weak trend persisting in the market across all classes. VLCC spot freight rates declined on all reported routes, while Suexmax spot freight rates remained flat, suffering from limited activity in general. Aframax saw mixed freight rates; however, average rates went down, pressured by the drop seen in the Caribbean and despite a firmer market in the Mediterranean. Clean tanker average spot freight rates declined as a result of lower freights West of Suez. Generally, the market remained uneventful, with limited demand on tonnage.
Stock Movements
Preliminary data for June showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks fell by 12.8 mb m-o-m to stand at 2,822 mb. This was 197 mb lower than seen during the same time one year ago, and 33 mb below the latest five-year average. However, OECD commercial oil stocks remain 251 mb above the January 2014 level. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell in June to stand at 58.8 days, which is 2.1 days lower than the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, 0.6 mb/d lower than the 2017 level. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32 mb/d, around 0.8 mb/d lower than the 2018 level.
Source: OPEC
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Saturday, 20 October 18
PANAMAX: THE PACIFIC SAW A LARGE VOLUME OF FIXING, WITH INDONESIA AGAIN THE DRIVING FORCE - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A positive end to last week after a shaky start, with a Coaltrans taking participants out of the market early on and with rates slippi ...
Thursday, 18 October 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO/WC INDIA SUPRAS ARE FIXING AROUND MID $14000S P/D BASIS SPORE DELIVERY
Capesize
The volatile Cape market continues this week, especially in the Pacific says Fearnleys in its latest weekly report.
...
Thursday, 18 October 18
COAL SHORTAGE HITS POWER SECTOR AGAIN; HOW INDIA CAN GET ITS PRODUCTION RIGHT - ANIL SWARUP
By convincing states of the value proposition of increased production, the record production of Fy15 & Fy16 can be emulated.
The ...
Thursday, 18 October 18
CHINA POWER REFORM NEUTRAL ON GRIDS, PRESSURES IPP MARGINS - FITCH RATINGS
China's power sector reform has a broadly neutral impact on transmission grids although it will pressure the power producers' margins, says ...
Wednesday, 17 October 18
ESCROW SERVICE FOR BALTIC MEMBERS NOW LIVE
The Baltic Exchange’s Escrow Service for its members to hold deposits for ship sale transactions goes live today (15 October). The service is ...
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- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
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