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Thursday, 16 August 18
OIL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS - OPEC
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In July, the OPEC Reference Basket increased marginally by 5¢ m-o-m to settle at $73.27/b. Oil futures saw mixed movement over the month, while US oil inventories continued to drain, particularly in Cushing,
Oklahoma. ICE Brent averaged 99¢ m-o-m lower at $74.95/b, while NYMEX WTI rose $3.26 m-o-m to $70.58/b. Year-to-date (y-t-d), ICE Brent is $19.53 higher at $71.72/b compared to the same period a year earlier, while NYMEX WTI climbed $16.70 to $66.20/b. The ICE Brent/NYMEX WTI spread narrowed by $4.25/b to $4.37/b in July. Speculative net long positions ended the month lower, particularly for ICE Brent.
The Dubai market backwardated structure eased again, while Brent flipped into contango for the remainder of the year. In the US, WTI backwardation increased significantly for the second successive month. Apart from the USGC costal grades, the global sour discount to sweet crudes increased due to a surplus of sour crudes.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019, unchanged from the previous assessment. After a strong 2Q18, US growth was revised up by 0.1 pp in both 2018 and 2019, reaching 2.9% and 2.5%, respectively. Euro-zone growth slowed and the forecasts were revised down by 0.2 pp to 2% for 2018 and by 0.1 pp to 1.9% in 2019. Growth in Japan remains at 1.2% in 2018, and the same level is projected for 2019. India’s forecasts are unchanged at 7.3% for 2018 and 7.4% for 2019. After solid growth in 1H18, China’s growth forecast was revised up by 0.1 pp to now stand at 6.6% for 2018 and remains at 6.2% for 2019.
Growth in Brazil was revised down by 0.1 pp, reaching 1.6% in 2018, but a mild rebound to 2.1% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast remains unchanged at 1.8% in both 2018 and 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, oil demand growth is anticipated to increase by 1.64 mb/d, 20 tb/d lower than last month’s projections, mainly due to weaker-than-expected oil demand data from Latin America and the Middle East in 2Q18. Total oil demand is anticipated to reach 98.83 mb/d. For 2019, world oil demand is forecast to grow by 1.43 mb/d, also some 20 tb/d lower than last month’s assessment. Total world consumption is anticipated to reach 100.26 mb/d. The OECD region will contribute positively to oil demand growth, rising by 0.27 mb/d y-oy, yet with growth of 1.16 mb/d, non-OECD nations will account for the majority of growth expected.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 was revised up by 73 tb/d from the previous MOMR to average 59.62 mb/d, representing an increase of 2.08 mb/d y-o-y. The main reason for this upward revision was an adjustment for the Chinese supply forecast due to the higher-than-expected oil output in 1H18. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is projected to reach an average of 61.75 mb/d, indicating an upward revision by 106 tb/d, mostly due to a re-assessment of the Chinese supply forecast for the next year. However, y-o-y growth was revised up by only 34 tb/d, to average 2.13 mb/d, owing to downward revisions in the US and Australian supply forecasts. The US, Brazil, Canada, the UK, Kazakhstan, Australia and Malaysia are the main growth drivers; while Mexico and Norway are expected to see the largest declines. The 2019 forecast remains subject to many uncertainties. OPEC NGL production in 2018 and 2019 is expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In July, OPEC production increased by 41 tb/d to average 32.32 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
In July, US margins recorded solid losses as crack spreads for all products with the exception of fuel oil declined, due to weaker fundamentals and higher feedstock costs. Strong middle distillate stock builds and an all-time record breaking jet fuel output further pressured USGC refining margins. In Europe, product markets recorded moderate gains on the top and bottom of the barrel, supported by firm exports outweighing losses seen in the middle of the barrel. Meanwhile, product markets in Asia strengthened, supported by robust gasoline demand from India, lower fuel oil arrivals from Europe and lower crude prices, which led to reduced feedstock costs for refiners, while gasoil output in China hit new highs.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker spot freight rates declined on average in July. This was mainly on the back of the continued weak trend persisting in the market across all classes. VLCC spot freight rates declined on all reported routes, while Suexmax spot freight rates remained flat, suffering from limited activity in general. Aframax saw mixed freight rates; however, average rates went down, pressured by the drop seen in the Caribbean and despite a firmer market in the Mediterranean. Clean tanker average spot freight rates declined as a result of lower freights West of Suez. Generally, the market remained uneventful, with limited demand on tonnage.
Stock Movements
Preliminary data for June showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks fell by 12.8 mb m-o-m to stand at 2,822 mb. This was 197 mb lower than seen during the same time one year ago, and 33 mb below the latest five-year average. However, OECD commercial oil stocks remain 251 mb above the January 2014 level. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell in June to stand at 58.8 days, which is 2.1 days lower than the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, 0.6 mb/d lower than the 2017 level. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32 mb/d, around 0.8 mb/d lower than the 2018 level.
Source: OPEC
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Monday, 08 October 18
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 520,000 TONS OF COLOMBIAN ORIGIN OF 5,700 NAR COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for 520,000 MT of min. 5700 NAR coal of Colombian origin ...
Sunday, 07 October 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO-INDIA USUAL COAL RUNS WERE COVERED AT US$ 12K - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Average daily earnings up close to 15 pct in 5 trading days, thus patience finally paying off for owners of the big ships - Chinese play ...
Sunday, 07 October 18
A CASE FOR 20/20 VISION? IMO'S LOW SULPHUR FUEL LIMIT UNDER MARPOL ANNEX VI WHICH COMES INTO FORCE ON 1ST JANUARY 2020
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The implementation of the global 0.5% sulphur cap for bunker fuel under MARPOL Annex VI in just under 18 months’ ti ...
Friday, 05 October 18
COAL PRODUCTION REACHES 64% OF 2018 TARGET : THE JAKARTA POST
National coal production up to August has already reached 311 million tons, or 64 percent of this year's total target of 485 million tons, acco ...
Wednesday, 03 October 18
VALUE OF AUSTRALIAN COAL EXPORTS TIPPED TO DECLINE SHARPLY OVER NEXT 18 MONTHS - THE GUARDIAN
Thermal coal prices forecast to drop 25% and metallurgical coal prices 23% as value of iron ore exports also falls
The value of Aust ...
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- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- White Energy Company Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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